http://ascenteq.com/project/epdp

ኮሚሽን ሰብኣዊ መሰላት ኢትዮጵያ፡ ንሰለስተ ዓመታት ተቛሪጹ ዝጸንሐ ምምዝጋብ ኤርትራውያን ስደተኛታት ኣብ ኣዲስ ኣበባ ብቕልጡፍ ንክቕጽል ከም ዝጸወዐ ጋዜጣ ሪፖርተር ኣብ ናይ 27 ታሕሳስ 2023 ሕታማ ሓቢራ። እቲ ኮሚሽ ኤርትራውያን ብሰንኪ ዘይምምዝጋቦም ኣብ ኣዲስ ኣበባ ናይ ምንቅስቓስ መሰሎም ከም ዝተገደበን ቅድሚ ሕጂ 200 ዝኾኑ ናብታ እተስግኦም ኤርትራ ብግዲ ከም ዝተመልሱን ገሊጹ።

ኮሚሽን ሰብኣዊ መሰላት ኢትዮጵያ ነዚ ዝገለጸ፡ ብ26 ታሕሳስ 2023፡ ንስደተኛታትን ሓተቲ ዕቑባን ዝምልከት ናይ 2022-2023 ጸብጻብ ኣብ ዘቕረበሉ ምዃኑ ተፈሊጡ። በቲ ጸብጻብ መሰረት ድሕሪ ናይ 2018 ስምምዕ ኤርትራን ኢትዮጵያን ብዙሓት ኤርትራውያን ናብ ኢትዮጵያ ከም ዝኣተዉን ኣብ ግዜኡ ብሰንኪ ዘይምምዝጋቦም ኣብዚ እዋንዚ ኣብ ከቢድ ጸገም ይወድቁ ምህላዎም ኣብቲ ጸብጻቡ ኣስፊሩ።

በቲ ናይቲ ኮሚሽን ጸብጻብ መሰረት፡ ኣብዚ እዋንዚ፡ ኤርትራውያን ብሓፈሻ ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ ብፍላይ ድማ ኣብ ከተማ ኣዲስ ኣበባ፡ “መረጋገጺ የብልኩምን፡” ብዝብል፡  ኣደዳ ማእሰርቲ፡ ምግዳብ ምንቅስቓስ፡ ከምኡ እውን ንስደተኛ ዝግበር ሓለዋ ብዘይምርካብን ካለኦት ሕጽረታትን ኣብ ሓደጋ ከም ዝርከቡ ተፈሊጡ’ሎ። ኤርትራውያን ስደተኛታት ዝተሰድሉ ምኽንያትን ናብ ሃገሮም እንተተመሊሶም ከጋጥሞም ዝኽእል ሓደጋን ከይተጸንዐ ናብ ሃገሮም ምምላስ ኢትዮጵያ ምስ ዝፈረመቶም ኣህጉራዊ ውዕላት ከም ዝጋጮ ሓቢሩ ከም ዝነበረ እቲ ኮሚሽን  ኣብቲ ጸብጻብ ሓቢሩ።

ጉዳይ ስደተኛታትን ካብ ስደት ተመለስትን ዝከታተል ኢትዮጵያዊ ትካል፡ ንስደተኛታት፡ ሓድሽ መንነት ምሃብን ምሕዳስን ከም ዝጀመረኳ እንተገለጸ፡ ኣብ ኣዲስ ኣበባ ግና ከምዘይተጀመረ  ኣፍሊጡ። ዝርጋሐ ስደተኛታት ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ ብዝምከት ድማ፡ ኣብ ጋንቤላ 383 ሺሕ፡ ሶማሊያ 301 ሺሕ፡ ቤንሻንጉል 79 ሺሕ፡ ኣዲስ ኣበባ 76 ሺሕ፡ ዓፋር 58 ሺሕ፡ ኣምሓራ 22 ሺሕ፡ ትግራይ 2 ሺሕ፡ ኦሮሚያ 4 ሺሕን  ምዃኑ እቲ ጸብጻብ ኣረዲኡ። ካብቲ ጠቕላላ ቁጽሪ ስደተኛታት ኣብ ኢትዪጵያ፡ ኤርትራውያን 167, 391 ወይ 18 ሚእታዊት ምዃኖም ከኣ እቲ ጸብጻብ ተሓቢሩ።

Martin Plaut

Sudan Is on the Brink of a New Catastrophe

Martin Plaut

Dec 23

Source: Fair Observer

Sudan Is on the Brink of a New Catastrophe

Rebels have taken over Sudan’s second-largest city. The latest fighting is exacerbating a terrible humanitarian crisis and 6.7 million have fled their homes. Foreign actors are backing their respective horses in this civil war, which has major implications for the entire region.

BY MARTIN PLAUT

‏The picture shows a huge fire in one of the ancient markets in Sudan (Amdurman market) likely due to the war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces.

DECEMBER 23, 2023 01:42 EDT

On Tuesday, December 19, Sudan’s second largest city, Wad Madani, fell to one of the most brutal armed groups worldwide. This made few headlines in a world obsessed with the fighting in Gaza.

The Sudanese war — which erupted in April this year — has pitted the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On the surface, it was no more than a quarrel between two generals. However, behind the military men are a range of outside forces. While the army has been the traditional bastion of the state, the RSF grew out of the notorious Janjaweed, a notorious Sudanese Arab militia charged with genocide for its activities in Sudan’s western region of Darfur.

As Kate Ferguson of Protection Approaches wrote:

“The RSF is the Janjaweed rebranded, the “devils on horseback” used by the Sudanese government from 2003 to implement widespread and systematic crimes against non-Arab communities across Darfur. The RSF was, and still is, commanded by Gen Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo.”

The war is a tragedy for the Sudanese people. It has forced an estimated 6.7 million people to flee from their homes. According to aid agencies, this is “the largest displacement crisis globally.” Although apparently no more than a regional issue, Sudan’s conflict has the potential to reshape the politics of the region, with implications for the entire Middle East.

That reshaping might come later. At the moment, the humanitarian crisis is dire and can be grasped from two maps. The first map, by the International Organisation for Migration, shows where the population has fled.

International Organization for Migration (IOM), Dec 12 2023. DTM DTM Sudan Weekly Displacement Snapshot 13. IOM, Sudan.

The second map, by the Famine Early Warning System, shows just how close many Sudanese are to famine, having been forced off their lands. Over half the population — 25 million people (including 13 million children) — urgently need humanitarian assistance.

The fall of Wad Madani after three days of fighting left the RSF with a precious resource. Not only did it capture a city that was home to the army’s first infantry division, the RSF now holds the urban area to which most aid agencies decamped after the fighting erupted in Khartoum, the Sudanese capital. Now, the rebel RSF holds most of Khartoum and large parts of Darfur, while the Sudanese army, under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has had to decamp to the relative safety of Port Sudan.

Chatham House analysts neatly summed up the situation: “An effective partition has emerged in Sudan, with the army controlling the east and northeast and the RSF controlling much of the capital and west of the country.”

International forces fueling the conflict

The African Union (AU) and its regional body — the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) — have made little headway in attempting to end the fighting. South Sudan, Djibouti and Ethiopia are attempting to appoint a special envoy, but even if they manage to select an appropriate mediator, it is hard to see how this envoy will make progress. The much vaunted African Standby Force, on which the AU and the international community have spent vast sums of money, is yet to be deployed. Instead, the only viable peace talks have taken place in Jeddah, which indicates that the Arab world, not the AU, is playing a more significant role in Sudan.

The fighting between the Sudanese army and the RSF is backed by external supporters. Burhan and the army look north for support. Historically, most Sudanese have looked to Egypt for support. Burhan was trained in Egypt and is a regular guest of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who has just won a third term in office. The Sudanese general can also rely on the Saudis for some backing. Also, the US gives Burhan and the army lukewarm support.

The reason US support is lukewarm is simple. President Joe Biden is bogged down by the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. With his reelection bid kicking off, Biden has little time to concentrate on Sudan. This apparent indifference is a mistake. Alex de Waal argues that benign neglect does not serve Washington’s interests. The Sudanese crisis will only end when the US engages more robustly.

Note that Burhan and the army have a poor support base. The RSF is much better resourced. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, generally referred to mononymously as Hemedti, leads the RSF. He is a former Janjaweed leader who was the deputy head of the Transitional Military Council following the 2019 Sudanese coup d’état. Hemedti has backers and the RSF has more money, men and motivation than the army.

Hemedti has links across the border in Chad, which he has exploited to the full. In fact, the RSF, is a revamped version of the Janjaweed and has terrorized Sudan. Its Arab fighters have attacked and killed African populations in Darfur.

Hemedti has also taken control of the resources of the region in general, and its gold mines in particular. He was encouraged and supported by Russia’s Wagner Group, which has taken a share of the spoils in return for supplying weapons to the RSF. This supply was tracked and traced by CNN. There is now clear evidence that the Wagner Group has been providing the RSF with missiles. Sudanese gold, flown out of Libya and on to the Russian base at Latakia paid for the weapons. This gold has not only funded Wagner, but also President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

Apart from Russia’s Wagner Group, the UAE is the RSF’s other major backer. The Sudanese army says it has “information from intelligence, military intelligence, and the diplomatic circuit that the UAE sends planes to support the Janjaweed.” The UAE has established hospitals in Chad to provide treatment for refugees fleeing from the fighting. Although the UAE denies it, there is a widespread belief that the aid is little more than a front for weapons supplies for the RSF.

Uganda is seen as an alternative route for the UAE’s support for Hemedti’s operations. Reportedly, when a plane landed at Uganda’s main airport Entebbe in June this year, its flight documents said it was carrying humanitarian aid sent by the UAE for Sudanese refugees. Instead, “Ugandan officials said they found dozens of green plastic crates in the plane’s cargo hold filled with ammunition, assault rifles and other small arms.”

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Little surprise then that the Sudanese army declared 15 members of the UAE embassy persona non grata on December 11. But outgunned and with limited diplomatic support, Burhan’s position appears to be weakening. At this moment there seems little chance of his allies providing the Sudanese army with the backing they require to hold off the Hemedti-led RSF. If Hemedti was to succeed in his campaign to oust the Sudanese military (and he is still some way from that objective) it would be a huge boost for his backers. The UAE would have extended its influence deep into Africa. The Wagner Group would have enhanced its operations across a vast swathe the Sahel. Hemedti’s victory would strengthen Putin’s influence and finances. It would also be a major blow to the US and the West. Already the Wagner Group has effectively chased the French out of Mali. Needless to say, a great deal is riding on the outcome of the Sudanese civil war. The future not only of a country but also of an entire region is at stake.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

ፍሪዶም ሃውስ/ FREEDOM HOUSE፡ ዝተባህለ ዓለም ለኻዊ ትካል ን9ይ ግዜ ኣብ ዘውጸኦ ሓድሽ ጸብጻብ፡ “ኣዝዩ ዘሰክፍ” ኣብ ትሕቲ ዝብል መግለጺ፡ ኣብ ኤርትራ ሰብኣዊ ናጽነት ከም ናይ ቅድሚ ሕጂ ኣብቲ ዝተሓተ ደረጃ ከም ዝርከብ ኣቃሊዑ።  ንኤርትራ ካብ ሚእቲ ዝሃባ ነጥቢ 3 ጥራይ ኮይኑ፡ ንሱ ድማ ኣብ ሓፈሻዊ መዳይ ፖለቲካዊ ናጽነት 1/40፡ ኣብ ሲቪላዊ ናጽነት ድማ 2/ 60 ነጥቢ ጥራይ ብምርካባ እዩ።

እቲ ትካል ነዚ መጽናዕቲ ንምክያድ ኣስታት 86 መምዘኒ ነጥብታት ዝተጠቕመ ኮይኑ፡ ኤርትራ ኣብ ልዕልና ፍትሒ፡ ድሕንነትን ውሕስነትን፡ ናጻ ምንቅስቓስ፡ ናጽነት ሃይማኖታዊ እምነት፡ መሰል ምውዳብን ምእካብን፡ ሓሳብካ ምግላጽን ምርካብ ሓበሬታን፡ ናጻ ናይ ሕድሕድ ርክባት፡ ሕጋውነትን ምውናን ንብረትን፡ ናጽነት ሕጋዊ ምዝውዋር ገንዘብ፡ ብደረጃ ዓለም ምንጋድ፡ ምህላው ሕግታት፡ ኣብ ዝብሉ ወሲኽካ ኣብ ኩሎም እቶም መምዘንታት 0/4 እያ ተዋሂባ።

እቲ መጽናዕቲ ኣብቲ ከመይነት ህልዊ ፖለቲካዊ ምምሕዳር ናይተን ሃገራት ዝገለጸሉ ንኤርትራ ኣብ ዝምልከት፡ ምርጫ ኣካይዳ ዘይትፈልጥን ስልጣን ኣብ ኢድ ብዘይ ናይ ህዝቢ ድምጺ  ዝገዝእ ውልቀሰብ ዝተባሕተሉ፡ ብ1997 ጸዲቑ ዝተባህለ ቅዋም ዝተኣገደሉ፡ ኣብታ ሃገር ዝገዝእ ዘሎ ሰልፊ ብኢሳያስ ዝምራሕ ህግደፍ ጥራይ ዝኾነሉ፡ ጃምላዊ ማእሰርትን ምስዋርን ዜጋታት ልሙድ ዝኾነሉ፡ ኩለን ብሕታዊ መዲያትታ ዝተዓጸዋሉ፡ ኢትዮጵያ ንምሕጋዝ ሰራዊት ናብ ጐረባብቲ እተውፍረሉ፡ ሰራዊታ ብግህሰት ሰብኣዊ መሰልን ቅትለት ስደተኛታትን ዝኽሰሰሉ፡ ብቐጻሊ ግዱድ ዕስክርና ኣብ ዝካየደሉ፡ ተመሃሮ ካብ ቤተሰቦም ተፈልዮም ኣብ ወተሃደራዊ መደበር ክመሃሩ ኣብ ዝግደድሉ፡ ምጥፍፋእን ካልእ ጸረ ህዝቢ ተግባራትን ዝቆጻጸራ ናጻ ትካላት ኣብ ዘየብሉን ዝኣመሰሉን ኩነታት እትርከብ ሃገር’ያ ክብል ገሊጽዋ።

ብብዝሒ ህዝቢ ካብ ኣፍሪቃ ቀዳማይ ደረጃ እትሕዝ ኢትዮጵያ፡ ክትከፍሎ ዝነበራ 33 ሚልዮን ዶላር፡ ናይ ሓደ ቢልዮን ናይ ቦንድ ወለድ ዕዳ ስለ ዘይከፈለት፡ ካብ 25 ታሕሳስ 2023 ጀሚራ፡ ኣብ ዝርዝር “ዕደአን ክኸፍላ ዘይከኣላ (ዝነደያ) ሃገራት ከም ዝኣተወት ማዕከን ዜና ሮይተርስ ሓቢሩ። ኢትዮጵያ እዚ ገንዘብዚ ክትከፍሎ ዝነበራ ክሳብ 11 ታሕሳስ 2023 ኮይኑ፡ ብፍሉይ ዓይኒ ተራእዩ ክሳብ 25 ታሕሳስ ክትከፍል ኣብ ዝተዋህባ ናይ ክልተ ሰሙናት ዕድል እውን ክትከፍል ስለ ዘይከኣለት ኣብቲ ዝርዝር ከም ዝኣተወት እቲ ዜና ብተወሳኺ ኣፍሊጡ።

ብሉምበርግ ዝተባህለ ማዕከን ብወገኑ፡ ገለ መራሕቲ ኢትዮጵያ ክኸፍሉ ከምዘይክእሉ ኣቐዲሞም ንዝምልከቶም ኣካላት ከም ዝሓበሩ ጠቒሱ፡ ኢትዮጵያ ጋናን ዛምቢያን ተኸቲላ ኣብዚ ቅልውላው ዝኣተወት ሳልሰይቲ ሃገር ኣፍሪቃ ምዃና ሓቢሩ። ገለ መራሕቲ ኢትዮጵያ እቲ ጸገም ናይ ዶላር ሕጽረት ዘይኮነስ፡ ኢትዮጵያ ብኸመይ ነቶም ዘለቅሕዋ ኣካላት ብማዕረ ተተኣናግድ ዝብል ምምሕዳራዊ ጸገም እዩ ብዝብል ከም ዘመኻንዩ ከኣ እቲ ዜና ሓቢሩ። ምስዚ ብዝተተሓሓዘ ናብ ጉጅለ-20፡ ቻይናን ካለኦት ገንዘባዊ ትካላትንኳ ምሕጽንታ እንተቕረበት፡ ምሕጽንተኣ ብሰንክቲ ኣብታ ሃገር ዝካየድ ዘሎ ውግኣት ተቐባልነት ከምዘይረኸበ’ውን ተፈሊጡ።

ኢትዮጵያ ኣብዚ ኣትያቶ  ዘላ  ቁጠባዊ ኩነታት ምእታዋ፡ ልቓሕ ንምርካብ ዘጸግማ ኣብ ልዕሊ ምዃኑ፡ ናይ ወጻኢ ትካላት ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ ንከየውፍሩ ዕንቅፋት ከም ዝኸውን ዝተፈላለዩ ናይ ቁጠባ ምሁራት ይገክጹ ኣለዉ። በዚ መሰረት ኣብ ልዕሊ ናይ ወጻኢ ንግዲ ኣታዊኣ ተጽዕኖ ከም ዝፈጥር’ውን ተፈሊጡ። ካብዚ ሓሊፉ ኣብ ልዕሊ ኣብ ስራሕ ዘለዋ ኩባንያታት ተጽዕኖ ከም ዝፈጥርን ሰራሕተኛታት ክንክያ ከም ዝጀመራን እቶም ወሃብቲ ርኢቶ የተንብሁ።

ኢትዮጵያ ኣብዚ ደረጃዚ ትወድቕ ዘላ፡ ኣብታ ሃገር ውግእ ሕድሕድ ኣብ ዝተጋደደሉ፡ ልዕሊ 30 ሚልዮ ካብ ህዝባ ሓገዝ ኣብ ዝጽበየሉን ሰባት ብጥሜት ኣብ ዝመትሉን ኩነታት ምዃኑ ዝፍለጥ እዩ።