An assessment of President Biden’s Ethiopia Policy

Thursday, 24 June 2021 12:52 Written by Martin Plaut

JUNE 23, 2021 MARTIN PLAUT ETHIOPIA, NEWS, TIGRAY

With Deliberate Famine Threatening Millions, Tigray Demands Greater Action from the US

by Goitom Gebreluel and Mulu Beyene Kidanemariam

June 21, 2021

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed began what he called a “law enforcement operation” against the Tigray Regional Government last November. Seven months later, it has turned into an internationalized civil war involving troops from neighboring Eritrea. The conflict has significantly destabilized the Horn of Africa. It has indirectly instigated a border war between Ethiopia and Sudan, as well as contributed to the escalation of rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia over Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD dam on the Nile River. Numerous war crimes have been documented by rights groups. And the United Nations humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock just declared famine in Tigray and said that starvation was being used as a weapon of war by Ethiopia and Eritrea. As a consequence of this, an estimated 350,000 are currently living in famine conditions, and 2 million more are in danger of soon being in the same situation.

A Nobel Prize laureate, Abiy may be in the process of committing mass murder on a scale not seen in many decades. Lawmakers from the United States and the United Kingdom have called the atrocities committed by Ethiopia “genocidal.” While the U.S. government was initially slow to react, it has recently taken on a critical leadership role in managing the crisis. As this man-made famine could potentially claim millions of lives, it is urgent that the Biden administration intensify pressure on the Ethiopian government beyond the sanctions it has already put in place.Background

The war began on Nov. 4, 2020, but there is a disagreement on who initiated it. The Ethiopian government claims that it launched an offensive in retaliation to an attack on the Ethiopian army by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). While, the TPLF claims that the war was initiated by the federal government and that they were acting in self-defense. The TPLF had for weeks prior to the war warned that a joint Eritrean and Ethiopian military offensive was being planned. The African Union’s Commission on Human and People’s Rights concluded through their own investigations that it was indeed the Ethiopian federal government that initiated the war. Diplomats on the ground have also confirmed a military build-up by federal troops along the border several days before the war began. Crucially, both the Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, and officials from the Amhara Regional State have admitted that they had been preparing for war for two years and that their troops were mobilized on the border with Tigray and ready to attack before the war, lending credence to the Tigrayan claim.

The three actors that invaded Tigray – the Eritrean military, Ethiopian federal forces, and militia of the Amhara Regional State — had individual as well as overlapping objectives. The Eritrean government wanted revenge against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). It had been the dominant force in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) government, which led efforts to diplomatically isolate Eritrea in the past. The Amhara militia’s main strategic objectives were territorial expansion and annexation of western and southern Tigray, which it claims is historically theirs, while Abiy’s main objective was the elimination of obstacles for his autocratic power consolidation. After he indefinitely postponed elections in June 2020, he imprisoned many leading opposition leaders while other dissidents were killed. Harassment of opposition parties has also made it difficult to operate and eventually led many to boycott the political process. The TPLF, which controlled a regional state of its own, was the only force with the institutional resources to resist Abiy’s centralization efforts. For example, when he postponed the elections, the TPLF proceeded to hold local elections in defiance.

The motives of these three actors converged on the desire to wage war on an entire community and collectively punish civilians in Tigray. In addition to numerous incriminating statements, the way the war was executed illustrates that civilians and civilian infrastructure were central targets of the war. One example is the use of rape as a weapon of war, which was, from the outset, widely used by the Amhara, Eritrean, and Ethiopian troops. The sexual violence often takes the form of gang rapes in groups as many as 20 to 30 men and often involves torture, leaving the assaulted women physically and mentally devastated. The latest official estimate of women needing treatment after sexual violence during the war was 22,500, but this is likely to be the tip of the iceberg.

Amhara militias also have ethnically cleansed around 1 million people from western Tigray. The troops have also systematically vandalized health, education, and economic infrastructure. Another devastating crime against civilians in Tigray is the use of starvation as a weapon of war. Eritrean and Ethiopian troops are systematically destroying farmers’ agricultural equipment and seeds; preventing them from farming; and obstructing the work of humanitarian workers in order to prevent food assistance from reaching the needy. Currently, 5.2 million or 91 percent of Tigrayans need emergency food, according to the United Nations, and they face a serious risk of famine. Given the level of intentional destruction, some analysts and politicians, including Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), have claimed the violations may constitute genocide.

Eritrean Involvement

The involvement of Eritrea in the war has become one of the most controversial aspects of the war, and its withdrawal of troops is a key demand by the United States and the international community. For months, both Ethiopian and Eritrean authorities vehemently denied accusations of Eritrea’s involvement, much less the way they were conducting the war. On March 23, however, Abiy admitted that Eritrean forces have been in Tigray since the war began. After months of denial, Eritrea too recently confirmed that its troops are fighting in Tigray.

Eritrean forces are implicated in most of the atrocities committed in Tigray, including the massacre in the Dengelat church, another massacre and massive looting in Axum, widespread sexual violence, prohibiting Tigrayans from farming their land, and blocking relief efforts. It is imperative to note that the Abiy administration has never protested Eritrea’s involvement. In fact, multiple reports indicate that Ethiopian federal forces and Eritrean forces conduct joint military operations. In light of these facts, it seems likely that Ethiopia invited Eritrea to participate in the war, and may have helped it operate covertly. In any event, it is evident that Ethiopia created conducive conditions for Eritrean troops to commit atrocity crimes with absolute impunity. That said, the extent to which Ethiopia currently has leverage over the Eritrean army is questionable. Such utter abdication of duty makes the case for international responsibility to protect civilians in Tigray compelling.

The U.S. Response to the Tigray Crisis

The Biden administration spent its first five months in office trying to convince Abiy to change course, a testament to how valuable the United States sees its partnership with Ethiopia. For two decades Ethiopia was the United States’ main security partner in the Horn of Africa. There were also numerous attempts by the United States and some European States to raise the Tigray crisis at the U.N. Security Council, but they failed to produce any meaningful outcome due to opposition from Russia and China. The international organizations that had the mandate and responsibility to act abdicated their responsibility. The chairperson of the African Union Commission, Musa Faki, embraced the war and sided with the Ethiopian government early on in the conflict, while U.N. Secretary General António Guterres has not been willing to take a strong public stand against the conflict. The European Union was the only actor that confronted Abiy by withholding some of its development assistance.

When the U.N. Security Council refused to seriously engage on the topic, the Biden administration focused on working directly with Ethiopia. Biden first sent Sen. Chris Coons (D-CT) as emissary and later appointed Jeffrey Feltman as special envoy to the Horn of Africa to persuade Abiy to withdraw Eritrean troops from Tigray and allow unhindered humanitarian access to civilians. This policy achieved little, however, and it gave Abiy more time to commit atrocities and allowed the conflict to turn deeper into a humanitarian and regional crisis.

The failure of this policy was mostly due to the belief that the Ethiopian government would be susceptible to diplomatic overtures. Historical evidence suggests, however, that governments that perpetuate systemic mass atrocities on this scale rarely allow themselves to be persuaded to halt their violent campaigns by non-coercive means. For example, the Cambodian genocide ended when the Khmer Rouge was overthrown by Vietnam, while the Bosnian genocide was halted through NATO’s military campaigns.

For six months, Abiy successfully took advantage of the widely held view amongst Western governments that Ethiopia –due to its role in regional counterinsurgency and peacekeeping — is too important of a strategic partner to be sanctioned or even confronted. He used this attitude amongst Western diplomats to buy time. From the beginning of the war, he constantly made promises he didn’t keep – first, it was the withdrawal of Eritrean troops, then unfettered access to humanitarian aid. Each lie bought him some time, and rarely did the deception or atrocities have any consequences.

After months of patient, but ineffective diplomacy, on May 24, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that visa bans would be applied against Ethiopian and Eritrean officials, members of the Amhara militia, and the TPLF for obstructing efforts to end the conflict in Tigray. Other sanctions included restrictions on development and security assistance to Ethiopia. The United States has also asked multilateral development banks to suspend funding to Ethiopia. The scale of the crimes and the failure of diplomatic overtures meant that the only remaining option was coercive diplomacy.

The main impact of the sanctions is, however, their symbolic effects. They convey the message that Ethiopia’s war crimes and crimes against humanity in Tigray are not acceptable.

Abiy’s first reaction to the U.S. sanctions was to rally the country behind the flag. The Ethiopian government has also made thinly veiled threats that it intends to look to China and Russia for alternative partnerships. This is, however, only a bluff. Ethiopia is a highly aid-dependent country, and it is extremely unlikely that China or Russia would be willing to provide the same level of development assistance that Europe and the United States have provided. Abiy’s current tactic seems to be to buy enough time to set off a major famine, in the hopes that hunger will end the Tigrayan insurgency. But, as the history of insurgencies in Ethiopia indicate, the armed resistance is likely to continue despite the famine.

What More Should Be Done

To be effective, the U.S. government needs to expand sanctions and intensify pressure on the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments. An incremental increase in pressure is counter-productive. Eventually, Abiy will have to politically engage his opponents; the purpose of outside pressure should be to make this happen before the famine kills hundreds of thousands of civilians and before the State collapses. It is important to disable his war machinery as early as possible.

For this to happen, the Biden administration needs to mobilize and coordinate a common front together with European and African States. While the EU has taken a strong stance, individual European countries, like France, Italy, and Germany, have been reluctant to confront Abiy on his human rights record. There needs to be a concerted effort to use financial assistance as leverage. Assets of key individuals should also be frozen through the Global Magnitsky Act.

While the U.N. Security Council should impose an arms embargo on the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments, action at the Council still seems unlikely given Russian and Chinese intransigence. As a second-best option, the U.S. government should impose an arms embargo on Eritrea and Ethiopia. As the United States is not a major arms trading partner for either Ethiopia or Eritrea, this would only be effective if done in conjunction with European States and by using secondary sanctions to deter arms exporters from trading with these countries. Over time, this would reduce Abiy’s access to weapons and ensure that his wars with Tigray, Oromia, and Sudan cannot continue indefinitely. It would also further isolate him diplomatically. So far, Abiy has rejected all calls for dialogue. Reduced access to weapons would eventually compel him to pursue a political solution. An arms embargo would also help disable Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s war machinery and end his destabilization of the Horn of Africa. The sanctions should be lifted only when a verification mechanism for the withdrawal of Eritrean, Amhara, and Ethiopian troops from Tigray has been put in place on the ground, and when a formal cessation of hostilities and a peace-process has begun.

More than five million people are categorized as needing emergency food assistance by the U.N., and with the current trajectory, most of these will soon be in famine conditions. If Abiy’s government is not stopped, the casualties of the Tigray war will, within a few months, exceed that of Rwanda’s genocide. If this is to be averted, the Biden administration needs to establish redlines and deadlines for compliance. If there is a continued refusal to comply with demands to end the conflict and allow humanitarian access to civilians in need, then the option of humanitarian military intervention merits serious consideration.

The U.N. Security Council is unlikely to support such measures, but the heavy humanitarian cost of inaction should be unacceptable. A NATO or other multilateral mission to push Eritrean troops out of Tigray and provide safe passage for humanitarian access may be the only option left to prevent the politically engineered famine from killing millions. The norm of Responsibility to Protect was formulated precisely for this type of situation. While there is little appetite for humanitarian intervention in the West, the alternative will be to allow the deliberate starvation of millions of people. We note that for a host of reasons, the United States has not clearly embraced the legality of humanitarian intervention absent Security Council authorization (although a few of its close allies, like the UK, have done so). We also suspect that the Biden administration is unlikely to change the long-standing U.S. legal view. But if the African Union, NATO, or the United States with a coalition of partners, were to intervene in Ethiopia in such circumstances, while it might be viewed as unlawful, it would not be unprecedented. Given the severity of the humanitarian situation in Tigray, such action could furthermore be morally justified. As the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty has argued, if “the Security Council fails to discharge its responsibility [to protect] in conscience-shocking situations crying out for action, then it is unrealistic to expect that concerned states will rule out other means and forms of action to meet the gravity and urgency of these situations.”

Beyond Tigray, if Abiy does not commit to a political process with his opponents, it is plausible that the Ethiopian State — with its 120 million inhabitants — will collapse. This would destabilize the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, through which a substantial share of the world’s trade passes every year. Pressure by the United States and its partners may therefore play an important role in reversing this trajectory before it’s too late.

Tigray: Two reports about the Togoga bombing

Thursday, 24 June 2021 12:45 Written by Martin Plaut

JUNE 23, 2021 MARTIN PLAUT ETHIOPIA, NEWS, TIGRAY

Source: Sky News

Ethiopia: Dozens reportedly killed and injured after airstrike on Tigray village

Wednesday 23 June 2021 13:29, UK

Dozens of people have been killed in Ethiopia’s Tigray region after an airstrike hit a busy market, according to witnesses.

Health workers said soldiers have blocked medical teams from travelling to the scene after the village of Togoga was struck.

The number of people killed has not been confirmed, but one doctor said “more than 80 civilian deaths” had been reported.

It comes amid some of the fiercest fighting in the Tigray region since the conflict began in November, as Ethiopian forces supported by those from neighbouring Eritrea pursue Tigray’s former leaders.

Injured patients being treated at Mekelle’s Ayder hospital said a plane dropped a bomb on Togoga’s marketplace.

She added that a baby died on the way to hospital after the ambulance carrying the infant was blocked for two hours.

One medical worker said six ambulances carrying around 20 health workers had attempted to reach the wounded but soldiers stopped them at a checkpoint before sending them back to Mekelle.

“They told us we couldn’t go to Togoga. We stayed more than one hour at the checkpoint trying to negotiate, we had a letter from the health bureau – we showed them. But they said it was an order.”

Several more ambulances were later sent away, but one group of medical workers managed to access the site on Tuesday evening via a different route.

One woman, who said her husband and two-year-old daughter were injured in the strike, said the bomb hit the market at around 1pm on Tuesday.

“We didn’t see the plane but we heard it,” she said. “When the explosion happened, everyone ran out – after a time we came back and were trying to pick up the injured.”

Residents said the violence had flared in recent days north of the regional capital Mekelle.

Medical workers have treated around 40 wounded people, but estimate the number of injured is likely higher as some people fled after the attack.

Five patients were said to need emergency operations but the health workers were unable to evacuate them.

A doctor in Mekele said: “We have been asking, but until now we didn’t get permission to go, so we don’t know how many people are dead.”

One Red Cross ambulance trying to reach injured people on Tuesday was shot at twice by Ethiopian soldiers, according to another doctor.

He said the soldiers held his team for 45 minutes before ordering them back to Mekele.

“We are not allowed to go,” he said. “They told us whoever goes, they are helping the troops of the TPLF.”

The TPLF stands for Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the political party which governed the region until it was ousted by a federal government offensive in November.

The subsequent fighting has killed thousands, forcing more than two million people from their homes.

Witnesses have repeatedly accused Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers of looting and destroying health centres across the Tigray region and denying civilians access to care, while the United Nations has said all sides have been accused of abuses.

Commenting on the recent airstrike, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in Berlin: “The situation there is appalling.”

“Today a military airstrike has been producing a lot of casualties against the civilians,” he added.

Source: Al-Jazeera

Air raid kills dozens in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, say witnesses

Witnesses say Tuesday’s attack targeted a busy market in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray village of Togoga.

23 Jun 2021

Dozens of people have been reportedly killed after an air attack targeted a busy market in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray village of Togoga on Tuesday, a day after residents said fighting had flared north of the regional capital Mekelle.

The bomb hit the market at approximately 1pm (10:00 GMT), according to a woman who told Reuters news agency that her husband and two-year-old daughter were injured in the attack.

“We didn’t see the plane but we heard it,” she said. “When the explosion happened, everyone ran out. Later, we came back and were trying to pick up the injured.”

Two doctors and a nurse in Mekelle told the Associated Press (AP) they were unable to confirm how many people were killed, but one doctor said health workers at the scene reported “more than 80 civilian deaths”.

The health workers spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.

Increased fighting

The reported air attack comes amid some of the fiercest fighting in the Tigray region since the conflict began in November as Ethiopian forces supported by those from neighbouring Eritrea pursue Tigray’s former leaders.

Reuters reported that Ethiopian military spokesperson Colonel Getnet Adane did not confirm or deny the incident. He said air attacks were a common military tactic and the force does not target civilians.

Three other health workers told Reuters that the Ethiopian military was blocking ambulances from reaching the scene.

Wounded patients being treated at Mekele’s Ayder Hospital told health workers that a plane dropped a bomb on Togoga’s marketplace.

A nurse at the hospital said the wounded included a two-year-old child with “abdominal trauma” and a six-year-old. She added that an ambulance carrying a wounded baby to Mekelle was blocked for two hours and the baby died on the way.

Hailu Kebede, foreign affairs head for the Salsay Woyane Tigray opposition party and who comes from Togoga, told AP that one fleeing witness had counted more than 30 bodies and other witnesses were reporting more than 50 people killed.

“It was horrific,” said an official for an international aid group who told the AP he had spoken with a colleague and others at the scene.

“We don’t know if the jets were coming from Ethiopia or Eritrea. They are still looking for bodies by hand. More than 50 people were killed, maybe more.”

Witnesses said several more ambulances were turned back later in the day and on Wednesday morning, but one group of medical workers reached the site on Tuesday evening via a different route.

“We have been asking, but until now we didn’t get permission to go, so we don’t know how many people are dead,” said one of the doctors in Mekelle.

Another doctor said the Red Cross ambulance he was travelling in on Tuesday, trying to reach the scene, was shot at twice by Ethiopian soldiers who held his team for 45 minutes before ordering them back to Mekelle.

“We are not allowed to go,” he said. “They told us whoever goes, they are helping the troops of the TPLF.”

The TPLF refers to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which governed Tigray until it was overthrown by a federal government offensive in November. The subsequent fighting has killed thousands and forced more than two million people from their homes.

While the United Nations has said all sides have been accused of abuses, Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers have been repeatedly accused by witnesses of looting and destroying health centres across Tigray and denying civilians access to care.

This month, humanitarian agencies warned that 350,00 people in Tigray are facing famine. Aid workers have said they have been repeatedly denied access to several parts of the region by soldiers.

The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says it has nearly defeated the rebels. But forces loyal to the TPLF recently announced an offensive in parts of Tigray and have claimed a string of victories.

European Union appoints new special representative for the Horn of Africa

Tuesday, 22 June 2021 11:18 Written by Martin Plaut

JUNE 21, 2021 MARTIN PLAUT ETHIOPIA, NEWS, TIGRAY

Source: EU

Council appoints three new EU special representatives for the Sahel, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa

The Council today appointed three new EU special representatives (EUSRs) as follows:

Emanuela Claudia Del Re has been appointed EUSR for the Sahel from 1 July 2021 until 30 August 2022. Ms. Del Re is an Italian national with a long academic career, having conducted extensive research in conflict areas in the Middle East, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. She is a member of the Italian Parliament and she served as Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Italy.

CV of Emanuela Claudia Del Re

Terhi Hakala has been appointed EUSR for Central Asia from 1 July 2021 until 28 February 2023. Ms. Hakala is a Finnish career diplomat with extensive experience in the EU’s Eastern neighbourhood and Central Asia, including in the context of OSCE. She served in various diplomatic postings abroad, including at Ambassador level, among others in Russia, South and South-East Asia, and Geneva. She was most recently Ambassador of Hybrid Affairs, Technology and Security in the Foreign Ministry of Finland.

CV of Terhi Hakala

Annette Weber has been appointed EUSR for the Horn of Africa from 1 July 2021 until 30 August 2022. Ms. Weber is a German national with over 25 years of experience in the region having facilitated peace talks at the highest political levels. She has an established track record of advising the UN, the EU and the German government on the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. She is also a speaker at the Munich Security Conference on regional issues.

Curriculum Vitae: Dr Annette Weber

Dr Annette Weber is a leading expert on the Horn of Africa with experience of more than 25 years in the region and has been advising German decision makers at the highest level. At the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) she was Senior Fellow in the Africa and Middle East Research Division since 2007, serving as Head of Department from 2012-2014. She was engaged in mediation in Sudan and Ethiopia as Senior Advisor for the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (2019-2021) as well as the Berghof Foundation (2014- 2019). Before joining SWP, Annette Weber was Coordinator and Head of Office for the Ecumenical Network for the African Great Lakes region (2003-2006). From 1996-2003 she held several positions, including Head Researcher (Sudan, Somalia) with Amnesty International and Head of Mission for Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. Furthermore, she lectured as Professor in Conflict Studies, International Relations and African IR at various universities in Germany, Austria and Spain. From 2010-2012 she worked as a consultant in residence in Addis Ababa. She published extensively on peace and security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea arena. In 2020, Dr Weber was chosen as Team Member for the UN Independent Assessment on International Support for Security of Somalia. Dr Weber was organiser, speaker, chair and advisor to several Horn of Africa and Red Sea Formats, including the Oslo Forum, Munich Security Conference, Tana High Level Forum and the Horn of Africa Security Dialogue. Annette Weber holds a PhD and MA in Political Science from the Free University of Berlin.

Ethiopia: AU Launches Investigation Into Tigray Atrocities

Saturday, 19 June 2021 23:03 Written by Aggrey Mutambo

Ethiopia: AU Launches Investigation Into Tigray Atrocities

Yan Boechat / VOA

A man passes by a destroyed tank on the main street of Edaga Hamus, in the Tigray region, in Ethiopia, on June 5, 2021.

17 JUNE 2021

Daily Nation

By Aggrey Mutambo

The African Union (AU) has launched an inquiry into human rights violations in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, becoming the first continental effort to investigate the conflict that began in November 4 when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military offensive against its regional forces.

A statement from the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa said the team formed under the African Commission on Human and People's Rights will begin preliminary work in Banjul, the Gambia, after which it will travel to Tigray to speak with locals.

It will be the first time the continental body, headquartered in Ethiopia, is picking up the task of establishing the truth about atrocities in Tigray, where Ethiopian forces have been fighting the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), once a ruling party under the late leader Meles Zenawi, but now considered a terror group by Addis Ababa.

"The Commission of Inquiry will begin its work in Banjul, Republic of The Gambia. It will conduct investigations on the ground and in neighbouring countries when the conditions are met," a statement from the AU said on Wednesday evening.

The Commission will sit for an initial three months, although AU said it could be extended.

"The Commission of Inquiry will adhere to the principles of independence, confidentiality, impartiality and neutrality, ensuring the protection of those with whom it collaborates."

The Commission will run under the provisions of Article 45 of the African Charter on Human and People's Rights which allows it to speak with victims, alleged villains and other witnesses as well as collect documents from relevant authorities.

The Commission of Inquiry was officially formed in May following an uproar on alleged atrocities in Tigray. Although it has immunity under the Charter, its success or failure will depend on the cooperation of stakeholders, including neighbouring countries like Eritrea and Sudan, which have both been drawn into the conflict.

Eritrean forces have been accused of carrying out a massacre and killing more than a hundred civilians in Tigray, while Sudan has hosted more than 40,000 refugees fleeing Ethiopia since the crisis began.

Its final report, however, could only be a recommendation to be implemented by member states, including Ethiopia.

This inquiry is formally being labelled a fact-finding mission to determine whether the events in Tigray constitute "serious and massive violations of human rights" as defined under international law.

Full-blown crisis

The Tigray crisis, which the Ethiopian government labels a domestic law enforcement operation, has turned into an arena of alleged human rights violations, ostensibly committed by State soldiers and the Eritrean troops fighting alongside them.

Ethiopia, however, officially denies the atrocities were sanctioned, but did agree to investigate through the Ethiopia Human Rights Commission in collaboration with the UN Human Rights Council "as part of the much-needed accountability process for the victims" or rape, murder and other torture.

Last week, a leaked report of the Special Rapporteur on Human Rights for Eritrea claimed there was credible information Eritrean troops also dragged Somalia's trainee soldiers to the battlefront. Both countries dismissed the allegation, although Eritrean officials, the Rapporteur claimed, refused to meet him to discuss the findings.

Hunger, starvation

The UN says up to 90 per cent of the six million people in Tigray are facing starvation, and some 400,000 people were already starving, figures the Ethiopian government has dismissed as alarmist.

Demeke Mekonen, Ethiopia's deputy prime minister and minister for foreign affairs, told the international community on Tuesday authorities have been filtering humanitarian access after learning there were weapons being smuggled to TPLF.

"It is extremely regrettable to see that some within the international community have embarked on a mission to undermine the unity, territorial integrity and the cohesion of the Ethiopian state, under the guise of humanitarian concern," Demeke said, but denied there was a policy to starve the Tigrinya people as a weapon of war.

"In the first round of humanitarian response, effort was made to reach out to 4.5 million people in the Tigray region through the delivery of food and non-food items. In the second and third rounds, the relief efforts were able to reach out to 5.2 million people", Demeke noted.

Last week, a joint EU and US statement called for a ceasefire and access for aid workers, and demanded an independent inquiry to find out those who committed atrocities.

"We have continuously called for an end to the violence and for unfettered humanitarian access to all parts of Tigray, but we are witnessing increasing restrictions," they said.

"Using starvation of civilians as a weapon of war is putting at risk the lives of millions. In addition, we are seeing wide-scale human suffering that is entirely preventable. Systematic violence is being inflicted upon civilians, including widespread sexual violence, and extra-judicial and ethnically-motivated killings."

Read the original article on Nation.

The images we feared we would see are here now: Tigray famine 2021

Saturday, 19 June 2021 20:08 Written by Martin Plaut

Date: 19/06/2021Author: Martin Plaut

These were taken in Tigray’s regional capital, Mekelle. The situation in the rural areas is even worse.

There has been no drought; no natural catastrophe. This tragedy is man-made – the result of a policy by Ethiopia and Eritrea to starve an entire population. This is attested to by the Finnish Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto.

This is the result

Ethiopia Votes, But Balloting Will Not Ease the Country’s Deep Crisis

Friday, 18 June 2021 12:31 Written by Martin Plaut

Date: 17/06/2021Author: Martin Plaut

Source: International Crisis Group

William Davison Senior Analyst, Ethiopia wdavison10

ETHIOPIA

What’s at stake in Ethiopia’s elections?

Ethiopia is due to hold delayed federal and regional council elections on 21 June. The vote is an opportunity for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to consolidate power for his ruling Prosperity Party, which, in part due to the absence of major opponents, looks set to form the next government. It will do little, however, to resolve the fundamental political divisions over the best way to steer the country’s troubled transition under Abiy, particularly as the most influential supporters of stronger regional autonomy – notably in Tigray and Oromia regions – will not take part. These constituencies will doubtless see the vote’s outcome as illegitimate. Polls originally set for August 2020 were postponed that March by the electoral board due to COVID-19, contributing to a constitutional dispute and the subsequent outbreak of war between the federal and Tigray regional governments. The authorities also arrested senior ruling-party opponents in Oromia and elsewhere in July 2020 amid deadly unrest. This led to boycotts by the two major Oromia-focused opposition parties and thus a far less competitive electoral landscape in Ethiopia’s most populous region. There will be no vote in around one fifth of federal constituencies due mainly to insecurity.

While the government is pushing ahead regardless, there will be no vote in around one fifth of federal constituencies due mainly to insecurity. No ballots will be cast in Tigray, due to a cruel conflict that has raged for more than seven months between the federal military alongside Eritrean troops and Amhara regional forces, on one side, and fighters loyal to the ousted Tigrayan regional leadership, on the other. Insurgencies in the Sudan-bordering region of Benishangul-Gumuz, home of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and in the west of Oromia, have led the electoral board to postpone voting in some districts there. Finally, no election will take place in the easterly Somali and Harari regions, due in part to ballot-printing problems. The board announced on 10 June that these last polls, along with some others that are postponed – though not those in Tigray – will be held on 6 September.

Although Abiy’s government hopes to come out of the election with a popular mandate, international observers have already criticised aspects of the process. U.S. observers from the National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute reported significant difficulties, including the widespread insecurity, boycotts by several popular parties, and delays in candidate and voter registration procedures. The European Union announced on 3 May it will not send observers, saying the government had not met conditions necessary to ensure the independence of the mission and its communications systems. With final results due within a month of the vote, the logistical problems that have beset preparations suggest that there could well be numerous issues with balloting and counting.

How do Ethiopia’s electoral and security crises relate to each other?

The election will play out in the shadow of the devastating war between federal authorities and ousted regional leaders from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who are key proponents of the existing ethnic federalist system. The system, which the TPLF was instrumental in designing, promotes the self-rule rights of Ethiopia’s diverse collection of communities, but critics see it as hardening ethnic identity and weakening national unity. The TPLF was the pre-eminent party in an alliance that held power for nearly three decades until Abiy’s ascent to the premiership in April 2018.

An electoral dispute triggered the Tigray conflict, yet serious tensions had been brewing since Abiy stripped the TPLF of most of its federal power after taking office. When, in June 2020, the federal government delayed national polls until nine to twelve months after it had assessed that the pandemic was under control, the Tigray regional government broke with central authorities and ran its own vote for the region’s legislature on 9 September, saying the government’s term could not extend past its five-year mandate. Federal authorities subsequently deemed the new regional leadership illegitimate. On 3 November, Tigray’s government forcibly took over a national military command stationed in the region, saying it acted due to an imminent federal operation to kick the TPLF administration out of office.

Amid a federal blockade on Tigray, the national armed forces and its allies removed Tigray’s leadership from power on 28 November and set up an interim administration. But the ousted TPLF leaders are leading an insurgency from rural areas that commands considerable backing among Tigrayans. Pro-rebel sentiments have been fuelled by reports of atrocities, especially by Eritrean forces, and the Amhara region’s decision to forcibly claim chunks of Tigray. The UN estimates that one million people are living in areas where the rebel Tigray Defence Forces are operating, with hundreds of thousands of those civilians on the brink of starvation. A key objective of the resistance is to restore the TPLF, now branded as a terrorist organisation by the federal parliament, to government. There is no end in sight to the war, either on the battlefield or through negotiations, given that the resistance is entrenched while Abiy refuses to talk to the ousted Tigrayan leadership and no alternative to those figures has emerged. Conflict in Oromia, a region of around 40 million people, has also been fuelled by tensions between the incumbent and supporters of Ethiopia’s ethnic federalist system.

Conflict in Oromia, a region of around 40 million people, has also been fuelled by tensions between the incumbent and supporters of Ethiopia’s ethnic federalist system. Prior to the pandemic, elections for Oromia’s governing council and the 178 federal parliament seats in the region were set to be competitive, with popular opposition leaders and parties due to mount serious challenges to the Prosperity Party. Oromo nationalist forces gained a significant boost after activist Jawar Mohammed – a driving force of the protest movement that catalysed Abiy’s own rise to power in 2018 – joined the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) in December 2019, the same month the Prosperity Party was created. The OFC allied within days with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), a formerly banned movement – the leaders re-entered the country as part of an amnesty Abiy accelerated after taking office – revered by many Oromo nationalists, creating a potent opposition force.

Then came the 29 June 2020 murder of popular Oromo singer Hachalu Hundessa, which upended the country’s politics. His killing triggered deadly unrest in Oromia and the regional and national capital Addis Ababa, which prompted federal authorities to crack down on Oromo activists. Amid the chaos, Jawar and other top opposition leaders were arrested and are now on trial for crimes including terrorism. The two main Oromo opposition groups, the OFC and OLF, say the authorities also detained their members en masse and closed party offices, repressing their activities. As a result, they have boycotted the election. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an OLF offshoot, says it is at “total war” with authorities as part of its struggle for Oromia’s complete self-determination. The movement, which the national parliament also branded a terrorist organisation on 6 May, says it aims to prevent voting in Oromia.

Unrest in the central region could increase after new federal and regional governments take power, as the OLA and its supporters will doubtless view the incoming authorities as illegitimate. While it is hard to authoritatively assess the OLA’s capabilities, the insurgency has spread from western and southern Oromia strongholds in recent months, including a reported deadly 10 June ambush on security forces in a district around 300km to the west of Addis Ababa.

In addition, chronic serious intercommunal and insurgent-government violence is afflicting Benishangul-Gumuz, interrupting election plans in two of the region’s three main administrative zones. Ethnic militias from the Gumuz community – a group that was among those historically subject to slave raids by more powerful Ethiopian ethnicities and whose activists say the community is still downtrodden – have mobilised in numbers and operate mostly in the remote, heavily forested Metekel Zone. They have killed ethnic Amhara, Shinasha and Oromo people, whom the Gumuz rebels perceive as settlers, and also recently briefly took over one district in the region’s Kamashi Zone.

Who will be the main challengers to the Prosperity Party?

The party fielding the most candidates is Abiy’s Prosperity Party, which was formed in December 2019 by merging all eight regional ruling parties other than the TPLF, which refused to join, claiming that Prosperity’s unitary structure undermines regional autonomy.

The Prosperity Party’s main national competitor is the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice Party, or Ezema. It differs from Prosperity in being a staunch advocate for the overhaul of the ethnic federalist system. Ezema is in effect the successor to an opposition coalition that made gains in Ethiopia’s most competitive election in 2005. After disputes over results and a deadly government crackdown that year, Ezema leader Berhanu Nega and allies were jailed. Some of them later launched a mostly ineffective insurgency from Eritrea and the U.S., before returning as part of Abiy’s 2018 opening that also involved a mass amnesty for jailed political activists.

The Prosperity Party and Ezema are especially looking to win control of the council governing Addis Ababa, the country’s economic and political powerhouse. There, the two parties will face off against each other and another competitor, Balderas for True Democracy, which says it stands for the autonomy and civil rights of Addis Ababa’s multi-ethnic citizens against what it says are attempts by Oromo nationalists to increase that group’s socio-cultural influence and political control in the city.

Could electoral competition translate into violence?

Electoral competition could set off violence, as the status of the Oromia and federal capital has long been a flashpoint, particularly between the Amhara and Oromo. The city is home to residents with ties to Ethiopia’s many ethno-linguistic groups, but it is encircled by Oromia. Oromo nationalists say the city was built on Oromo land in the late 19th century. They want a greater say in running it, a demand partly based on the 1995 federal constitution granting Oromia region an undefined “special interest” in Addis Ababa. A 2014 government development plan for the capital and surrounding areas of Oromia touched off protests across the region, with protesters asserting that the initiative would result in more unfair evictions of Oromo farmers. The city’s growth in preceding years had already pushed many off their land. The underlying dispute could exacerbate power-sharing tensions in Addis Ababa between the Oromia and Amhara branches of the Prosperity Party. If defeated, as looks almost certain, Oromo nationalists may object to losing control of the capital.

In the meantime, Balderas leader Eskinder Nega is also standing trial for terrorism crimes. A recent Supreme Court ruling ordered the electoral board to list him on the ballot, despite the ongoing court case. His travails have agitated his supporters, including ethnic Amharas in Addis Ababa, and the National Movement of Amhara, an Amhara opposition party that is a partner of Balderas and has a mostly urban support base. In April, the Movement supported demonstrations in Amhara, accusing Abiy’s government of failing to prevent the killing of Amhara civilians by, allegedly, the OLA and Gumuz militiamen, including in March and April around an Oromo administrative enclave in Amhara. Disputed results in the region, Ethiopia’s second most populous, could also contribute to further unrest there.

What is the way forward to return the country to peaceful politics?

The grave problems with the elections demonstrate that – more than ever –Ethiopia needs an inclusive process of political reconciliation. The authorities say they are already holding a “national dialogue” among groups and citizens, but with so many disgruntled opposition elements, this initiative is unlikely to calm the waters. A recent statement on the campaign trail by the prime minister vowing to “destroy” what he calls the country’s internal enemies also undermines efforts to narrow divisions. Unless his government takes a more conciliatory, comprehensive approach to negotiations, instability may well spike further, and it will be increasingly difficult for the government to carry out economic or political reforms, including, potentially, to the constitution. Furthermore, serious factionalism within the ruling party, notably between its Amhara and Oromia branches, could well be exacerbated by a post-election government’s attempt to reconfigure the federal system, particularly if that is conducted without sufficient consultation. The federal government should pursue a political settlement for the horrific, seemingly unwinnable war in Tigray

Whatever the election results, the federal government should pursue a political settlement for the horrific, seemingly unwinnable war in Tigray and conflicts in Oromia and elsewhere. Most urgently, that requires a cessation of hostilities in Tigray in order for relief to reach the millions of people in the region who desperately need it as famine conditions worsen. Large-scale preventable deaths in Tigray would likely irreparably isolate Abiy’s government internationally and make the region’s conflict even more entrenched and harder to resolve politically. Furthermore, unless Abiy’s government can get a handle on the many domestic crises it faces, it will struggle to tamp down tensions away from home, not least in its growing confrontations with Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, with Sudan over disputed borderlands and with international partners over its handling of the war in its stricken northernmost region.

An end to the Tigray war would only be a start, however. Reconciling the contradictory visions for such a complex country requires addressing the competing demands of various parties and reaching a compromise between supporters and opponents of its ethnic federalist system through an inclusive process involving all key political actors. If, as appears likely, the Prosperity Party wins a majority, Abiy should use his new mandate as an opportunity to reach out to even his most hardline opponents. If that does not happen, the country may very well suffer increasing political violence and the government and its leader may face growing international isolation.

Washington Post editorial: “Starvation has become a weapon of war in Ethiopia. U.S. action is urgent”

Thursday, 17 June 2021 14:48 Written by Eritrea Hub

JUNE 16, 2021 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS, TIGRAY

“The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, is among those warning of another massive Ethiopian famine. “We cannot make the same mistake twice,” she said last week. “We cannot let Ethiopia starve.” Mr. Blinken pledged “further actions from the United States” if “those responsible” for the crisis did not “reverse course.” Though Ethiopia has been a valuable U.S. ally, the Biden administration now has no choice but to take that action.”

Source: Washington Post

Opinion: Starvation has become a weapon of war in Ethiopia. U.S. action is urgent.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed speaks during a question-and-answer session with lawmakers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in November 2020. (Tiksa Negeri/Reuters)

Opinion by the Editorial Board

June 15, 2021 at 6:31 p.m.

FOR MONTHS, humanitarian agencies have been warning that famine could spread in the Ethiopian region of Tigray if government forces and allied troops from neighboring Eritrea did not end a brutal campaign to subjugate the area. Now that emergency has arrived. U.N. agencies reported last week that more than 350,000 of Tigray’s 6 million people are living in famine conditions, and 2 million more are at risk. Some 140,000 of those facing starvation are children, according to UNICEF, which says 33,000 are at imminent risk of death.

This humanitarian catastrophe, which U.N. officials say could rival the epic Ethiopian famine of 1984 if not arrested, is a deliberate result of the military campaign waged in Tigray since late last year by the government of Abiy Ahmed and the allied Eritrean regime of Isaias Afwerki. According to U.S. and U.N. officials and press reporting, the forces of the two governments have burned farmers’ fields and stores and slaughtered or stolen livestock. They have also systematically blocked aid deliveries to the parts of Tigray not under government control. Eritrean forces, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator Mark Lowcock said last week, are “trying to deal with the Tigrayan population by starving them.” Food, he told the Reuters news agency, “is definitely being used as a weapon of war.”

Forced starvation of children is only the latest atrocity Ethiopian and Eritrean forces have resorted to in what, so far, has been a failed effort to crush the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has controlled the region for decades and dominated Ethiopia’s government until Mr. Abiy came to power in 2018. The United Nations has also reported mass rapes of women, massacres of civilians and ethnic cleansing. More than 2 million people have fled their homes, leaving their fields behind. Tigrayan men are being rounded up and summarily executed.

The United States and other Western governments have attempted in vain to stop this scorched-earth assault. Secretary of State Antony Blinken began publicly demanding the withdrawal of Eritrean and Ethiopian militia forces from Tigray soon after taking office; Sen. Christopher A. Coons (D-Del.), a confidant of President Biden, was sent to lobby the Ethiopian ruler. Last month, Mr. Blinken announced visa sanctions against Ethiopian and Eritrean officials involved in abuses or the blocking of food aid. The European Union and United States have suspended hundreds of millions of dollars in aid.

None of it has worked. Mr. Abiy promised in March that Eritrean troops would leave Tigray, but they are still there. So are Amhara militias from a neighboring Ethiopian region that have engaged in ethnic cleansing as well as blocking food. Journalists reporting on the atrocities have been arrested or expelled from the country. Meanwhile, China and Russia have blocked action by the U.N. Security Council, which — to its shame — has yet to publicly meet on the Tigrayan crisis.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, is among those warning of another massive Ethiopian famine. “We cannot make the same mistake twice,” she said last week. “We cannot let Ethiopia starve.” Mr. Blinken pledged “further actions from the United States” if “those responsible” for the crisis did not “reverse course.” Though Ethiopia has been a valuable U.S. ally, the Biden administration now has no choice but to take that action.

Ethiopia’s envoy tells UN Security Council Eritrean troops to leave Tigray ‘soon.’

Wednesday, 16 June 2021 14:59 Written by Eritrea Hub

JUNE 16, 2021 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS, TIGRAY

Source: Reuters

By Michelle Nichols

Outgoing U.N. aid chief Mark Lowcock told the 15-member council in a private briefing that “no one should be surprised to see a rerun” of a devastating 1984 famine if violence in Tigray does not stop and Eritrean troops do not withdraw.

“Rape is being used systematically to terrorize and brutalize women and girls. Eritrean soldiers are using starvation as a weapon of war. Displaced people are being rounded up, beaten and threatened,” Lowcock told the council, according to diplomats who attended the meeting.

Eritrea’s U.N. mission in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Lowcock’s allegation. Eritrea said in April that it had agreed to start withdrawing its troops from Tigray.

In April, Eritrea’s U.N. ambassador, Sophia Tesfamariam, rejected allegations of sexual violence and starvation by Eritrean troops as false and “outrageous.”

Ethiopia’s U.N. ambassador, Taye Atske Selassie Amde, who took part in the council discussion, said the Eritrean withdrawal “is a matter of sorting out some technical and procedural issues.”

“Our expectation is that they will definitely leave soon,” he told reporters after the council briefing.

Lowcock briefed the Security Council just days after an analysis by U.N. agencies and aid groups found that more than 350,000 people in Tigray are suffering famine conditions – the worst catastrophic food crisis in a decade.

Ethiopia’s government has disputed the analysis. Amde also said Ethiopia’s government had granted unfettered aid access to Tigray and was grateful for international humanitarian help.

The informal council meeting on Tuesday, requested by Ireland, was its sixth private discussion of the crisis since fighting broke out in November between Ethiopia’s federal government troops and Tigray’s former ruling party. Eritrean troops entered the conflict to support the Ethiopian government.

Amde said the situation in Tigray did not warrant the Security Council’s attention.

Western council members have been pitted against Russia and China, which diplomats say also question whether the body, charged with maintaining international peace and security, should be involved in the crisis in Tigray.

The violence in Tigray has killed thousands of civilians and forced more than 2 million from their homes in the mountainous region. In April, the Security Council issued a statement of concern about the humanitarian situation.

“It is not drought or locusts causing this hunger, but the decisions of those in power. That means those in power can also end the suffering,” British U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward told reporters after Tuesday’s briefing.

Ethiopia’s envoy tells UN Security Council Eritrean troops to leave Tigray ‘soon.’

Wednesday, 16 June 2021 14:54 Written by Eritrea Hub