DRAFT AGREEMENT FOR LASTING PEACE THROUGH A PERMANENT CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES

BETWEEN

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA AND THE TIGRAY PEOPLE’S LIBERATION FRONT (TPLF)

PREAMBLE

Agreeing to peacefully resolve the violent conflict that erupted on November 3, 2020, in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia in a manner consistent with the Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia;

Recognizing the destructive consequence of the conflict between the two Parties on human lives and livelihoods;

Affirming that political problems can only be sustainably resolved through political means;

Reiterating the Parties’ commitment to the African Union’s Agenda of Silencing the Guns by 2030, consistent with the spirit of ‘African solutions to African problems;

Resolved to find a lasting and comprehensive solution to the conflict; including restoration of constitutional order in the Tigray region;

Convinced of the need to agree upon the terms for the permanent cessation of hostilities and modalities for the peaceful settlement of all political differences and disputes;

Determined to seek a peaceful and lasting solution to the crisis within a framework of the permanent cessation of hostilities where a monitoring and verification mechanism shall be put in place to monitor compliance;

Recognising the efforts to bring a peaceful resolution to the crisis by the African Union, the African Union High-Level Panel led by His Excellency former President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, supported by His Excellency former President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, and Her Excellency Dr. Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, former Deputy President of South Africa, as well as the Republic of South Africa for graciously hosting the Peace Talks, and the observers for their support;

Mindful of the desire of the people of Ethiopia to live in peace and dignity in an inclusive democratic society based on justice, equality, respect for human rights, and the rule of law;

The Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (the Government) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (the TPLF) (together referred to as the Parties) agree to the following terms;

Article 1 – Objectives

The objectives of this Agreement are to:

1. Reach an immediate and Permanent Cessation of Hostilities with a view to silencing the Guns and creating a conducive environment and laying the foundation for sustainable peace;
2. Restore the constitutional order disrupted due to the conflict in the Tigray Region;
3. Reject violence as a method of resolving political differences;
4. Guarantee security for all;
5. Ensure a lasting settlement of the conflict;
6. Provide a framework for addressing matters arising out of the conflict;
7. Provide a framework to ensure accountability for matters arising out of the conflict;
8. Foster reconciliation and the rehabilitation of social bonds;
9. Facilitate economic recovery and reconstruction;
10. Commit to addressing the underlying political differences;
11. Provide a framework for monitoring and verification of the implementation of the Agreement.

Article 2 – Principles Underpinning the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities

The Parties shall be guided by the following principles:

1. Respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and unity of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE);
   1. Legality and respect for constitutional norms and principles enshrined in the FDRE Constitution;
   1. Respect for fundamental human rights and democratic norms and principles;
   1. Protection of civilians;

• Respect for the African Charter on Democracy, Elections, and Governance;
  • Accountability and justice in accordance with the FDRE Constitution and the AU Transitional Justice Policy Framework;
  • Unhindered humanitarian access to all in need of assistance;
  • The use of humanitarian aid exclusively for humanitarian purposes.
  • Reconciliation and rehabilitation;
  • Relief and Reconstruction;
  • Good faith commitment in the implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities and all subsequent stages of the peace process.

Article 3 – The Permanent Cessation of Hostilities

1. The Parties commit to and declare an immediate and Permanent Cessation of Hostilities, and undertake to disengage forces or armed groups under their control;
2. This Permanent Cessation of all forms of hostilities shall include, among others; the cessation of overt and covert acts of violence; laying of mines; sabotage; airstrikes; direct or indirect acts of violence; and subversion or use of proxies to destabilize the other party or collusion with any external force hostile to either party;
3. The Permanent Cessation of hostilities shall include the cessation of all forms of hostile propaganda, rhetoric, and hate speech;
4. The Permanent Cessation of Hostilities shall pave the way for the restoration of the constitutional order in the Tigray Region and political dialogue between the Parties;
5. The Parties agree to restore the presence of federal authority in Mekelle in order to create a conducive environment for the resumption of public services in the region as well as to ensure the safety of the inhabitants of the city. To this effect, the Parties agree that the ENDF and other relevant Federal Institutions shall have an expeditious, smooth, peaceful, and coordinated entry into Mekelle, which shall be facilitated through the open communication channel to be established between the senior commanders of the Parties as per Article 6 (c) of this Agreement.

Article 4 – Protection of Civilians

1. The Parties shall protect the human rights of the civilian population and commit to upholding applicable international humanitarian law instruments to which Ethiopia is a party;
2. The Parties shall, in particular, condemn any act of sexual and gender-based violence, any act of violence against children, girls, women and the elderly, including recruitment and conscription of child soldiers, and support family reunification.

Article 5 – Humanitarian Access

1. The Government of FDRE shall expedite the provision of humanitarian aid in collaboration with humanitarian agencies taking into account the specific needs of vulnerable groups including women, children and the elderly; The Parties shall cooperate to this effect;
2. The Parties undertake to cooperate among themselves and with the relevant humanitarian agencies to assist in reuniting families;
3. The Government of FDRE undertakes to facilitate the return and reintegration of internally displaced persons and refugees, whenever the security situation permits;
4. The Parties shall ensure that humanitarian aid is used only for humanitarian purposes.

Article 6 – Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR)

The Parties:

1. Agree and recognize that the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has only one defence force;
   1. Shall design and implement a comprehensive DDR program for TPLF Combatants consistent with the Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia;
   1. Agree that within 24 hours of the signing of this Agreement, an open channel of communication between senior commanders of both sides will be established;

• Agree to organize a meeting of senior commanders within 5 days from the signing of this Agreement to discuss and work out detailed modalities for disarmament for the TPLF combatants, taking into account the security situation on the ground;
  • Agree to undertake the disarmament of the heavy armaments of the TPLF combatants as a matter of priority based on a detailed schedule to be agreed upon between the senior commanders of the Parties. The disarmament activities in the schedule should be completed within ten days from the conclusion of the meeting of the senior commanders. The ten-day period could be extended based on the recommendation of the senior commanders, to be endorsed by the Parties.
  • Agree to finalize the overall disarmament of the TPLF combatants, including light weapons within 30 days from the signing of this Agreement;
  • Agree that the demobilization and reintegration plan will consider the Tigray Region’s law-and-order needs.

Article 7 – Confidence-building measures

1. The TPLF shall:

1. Respect the constitutional authority of the Federal Government, all constitutional bodies and organs of the Federal Government, including but not limited to the authority of the Federal Government to control all federal facilities, institutions, and the international boundaries of the country;
   1. Refrain from aiding and abetting, supporting, or collaborating with any armed or subversive group in any part of the country;
   1. Respect the constitutional mandate of the Federal Government to deploy the Ethiopian National Defence Force as well as federal security and law enforcement agencies to discharge their responsibilities under the Constitution, relevant laws, and regulations;
   1. Refrain from conscription, training, deployment, mobilization, or preparation for conflict and hostilities;

• Halt any conduct that undermines the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ethiopia, including unconstitutional correspondence and relations with foreign powers;
  • Cease all attempts of bringing about an unconstitutional change of government.

• The Government of the FDRE shall:

1. Halt military operations targeting the TPLF combatants;
   1. Expedite and coordinate the restoration of essential services in the Tigray region within agreed timeframes;
   1. Facilitate the lifting of the terrorist designation of the TPLF by the House of

Peoples’ Representatives;

• Mobilize and expedite humanitarian assistance for all those in need in the Tigray Region and other affected areas, and ensure unhindered humanitarian access.

Article 8 – International Boundaries and Federal Facilities

1. The ENDF shall be deployed along the international boundaries of Ethiopia;
2. The ENDF shall safeguard the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of the country from foreign incursion and ensure that there will be no provocation or incursion from either side of the border;
3. The ENDF, the Federal Police, and other federal security organs shall take full and effective control of national airspace, aviation safety and security, and all federal facilities, installations, and major infrastructure such as airports and highways within the Tigray Region.

Article 9 – Restoration of Federal Authority in the Tigray Region and representation in federal institutions

1. The Parties agree on the restoration of Federal Authority in the Tigray Region, including control of federal institutions and agencies;
2. The Federal Government shall ensure and facilitate the representation of the Tigray region in the federal institutions, including the House of Federation, and House of

Peoples’ Representatives, in accordance with the FDRE Constitution and applicable laws.

Article 10 – Transitional Measures

1. Within a week of the implementation of Article 7 (2) (c) and until elections for the Regional Council and the House of Peoples’ Representatives are held under the supervision of the Ethiopian National Election Board, the establishment of an inclusive Interim Regional Administration will be settled through political dialogue between the Parties;
2. A week after the implementation of Article 7 (2) (c) the Parties shall start a political dialogue to find lasting solutions to the underlying political differences between them;
3. The Government of Ethiopia shall implement a comprehensive national transitional justice policy aimed at accountability, ascertaining the truth, redress for victims, reconciliation, and healing, consistent with the Constitution of FDRE and the African Union Transitional Justice Policy Framework. The transitional justice policy shall be developed with inputs from all stakeholders, and civil society groups through public consultations and formal national policy-making processes.
4. The Parties commit to resolving issues of contested areas in accordance with the Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Article 11 – Monitoring, Verification, and Compliance

1. The Parties agree to institute a monitoring, verification, and compliance mechanism for the effective implementation of the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities. For this purpose, the Parties agree to establish a Joint Committee comprising a representative from each party, a representative from IGAD and chaired by the African Union through the High-Level Panel. The Joint Committee shall be assisted by a team of African Experts;
2. The AU, through the High-Level Panel, shall appoint a team of African experts to monitor the implementation of the permanent cessation of hostilities agreed upon under Article 3 of this Agreement. The Parties shall appoint one expert each to work with the team of African Experts;

• The AU, through the High-Level Panel shall consult with the Parties regarding the terms of reference and the profile of the Experts;
• The specific functions of the experts, including those with a military background, shall be agreed upon between the Parties and the AU, through the High-Level Panel;
• The number of experts shall not exceed ten (10). If additional experts are needed, this shall be agreed upon with the Parties;
• The duration of the mandate of the experts shall be six months from the date the experts are deployed. This period could be extended upon agreement with the Parties;
• The AU, through the High-Level Panel may, in agreement with the Parties, augment the work of the experts with satellite imagery;
• Whenever the team of experts finds instances of violation of the cessation of hostilities, they will inform the concerned party to take immediate measures to rectify the violation;
• They will also inform the other party and Joint Committee of any communication under the preceding sub-article. If the violation is not rectified within 24 hours, the AU, through the High-Level Panel will convene the Joint Committee to resolve the problem.

Article 12 – Good Faith Implementation

1. The Parties undertake to implement this Agreement in good faith and to refrain from any action that undermines and/or is inconsistent with the spirit and letter of this Cessation of Hostilities;
2. The Parties shall promote the objectives of the Cessation of Hostilities.

Article 13 – Joint Statement and communications

1. The Parties shall issue a joint statement on the importance of this Agreement and their joint commitment to work towards peace and stability in the country;
2. The Parties commit not to make any unilateral statement, in any form, that could undermine this Agreement;
3. All public statements, in any form, by the Parties shall support the Agreement and prepare the ground for implementation.

Article 14 – Effective Date

This Agreement shall come into effect at 00:00 hours East Africa Time (EAT) on 3^rd November 2022.

Article 15 – Amendments to this Agreement

This Agreement may be amended by mutual consent of the Parties, which shall be in writing and signed by the Parties.

Done at Pretoria, the Republic of South Africa on 2^nd November 2022.

For the Government of the FDRE                                  For the Tigray People’s Liberation Front

His Excellency, Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson African Union Commission

His Excellency Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa

His Excellency Uhuru Kenyatta, former President of the Republic of Kenya (Panel Member)

Her Excellency Dr. Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, former Deputy President of the Republic of South Africa (Panel Member)

Source: Senate Foreign Relations Committee

Risch, Merkley, Menendez, Colleagues Urge Cessation of Hostilities in Ethiopia Ahead of Peace Talks in South Africa

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senators Jim Risch (R-Idaho), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, along with Senators Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), and Mitt Romney (R-Utah), sent a letter to Ethiopia’s prime minister ahead of planned peace talks led by the African Union set to begin tomorrow. In their bipartisan letter, the senators welcome the government of Ethiopia’s decision to participate in peace talks in South Africa and urge a cessation of hostilities and unfettered humanitarian access ahead of, and for the duration of, the negotiations. 

“The surge of violence in the last few weeks is the latest tragic chapter in a war that has had a devastating human toll,” wrote the senators. “Since the start of the conflict in November 2020, an estimated 2.5 million civilians have been displaced, and approximately 500,000 killed.” 

The senators go on to note how the collapse of the five-month humanitarian truce halted crucial aid from being delivered to 5.2 million people in need – including large numbers of women and children. In August, the United Nations warned that one out of every three Tigrayan children under the age of five in northern Ethiopia is acutely malnourished. Throughout Ethiopia, 20 million people are food insecure. 

“Too many lives have already been lost in this conflict, and in conflict throughout the country. We are hopeful that the AU-led talks will signal an end to the violence that has ravaged northern Ethiopia for two years and pave the way for holding those responsible for human rights abuses and atrocities to account. A peaceful resolution to the conflict is imperative and we urge you to facilitate this critical step toward peace by immediately ceasing hostilities,” they concluded. 

Full text of the letter can be found below:

Dear Prime Minister Abiy,

We welcome the Government of Ethiopia’s decision to participate in the upcoming peace talks in South Africa, led by the African Union. We strongly urge all parties involved in the fighting to immediately cease hostilities, including the withdrawal of the Eritrean Defense Forces from northern Ethiopia, and allow unfettered humanitarian access to the entire region to ensure a successful outcome to negotiations.

The surge of violence in the last few weeks is the latest tragic chapter in a war that has had a devastating human toll. Since the start of the conflict in November 2020, an estimated 2.5 million civilians have been displaced, and approximately 500,000 killed.

The resumption of hostilities in northern Ethiopia is compounding an already dire humanitarian situation. With the collapse of the five-month humanitarian truce, crucial aid is no longer being delivered to the 5.2 million people in need in Tigray, including many women and children. The United Nations warned in August that one out of every three children under five in northern Ethiopia is acutely malnourished, while 20 million throughout Ethiopia are food insecure. These shocking numbers are certain to rise so long as fighting continues. Just last week, the UN Secretary General said the situation in Ethiopia is spiraling out of control.

Too many lives have already been lost in this conflict, and in conflict throughout the country. We are hopeful that the AU-led talks will signal an end to the violence that has ravaged northern Ethiopia for two years and pave the way for holding those responsible for human rights abuses and atrocities to account. A peaceful resolution to the conflict is imperative and we urge you to facilitate this critical step toward peace by immediately ceasing hostilities.

Sincerely,

The Security Council will convene for a private meeting on the situation in Ethiopia under the “Peace and Security in Africa” agenda item. The meeting was requested by the A3 members of the Council (Gabon, Ghana and Kenya)…The AU Peace and Security Council is expected to convene tomorrow for a briefing ahead of the Security Council’s meeting to discuss the AU-led peace process for Ethiopia. Obasanjo is expected to brief.

Source: What’s in the Blue

Ethiopia: Private Meeting

Tomorrow morning (21 October), the Security Council will convene for a private meeting on the situation in Ethiopia under the “Peace and Security in Africa” agenda item. The meeting was requested by the A3 members of the Council (Gabon, Ghana and Kenya) on 17 October. The anticipated briefers are OCHA Director of Operations and Advocacy Ghada Eltahir Mudawi and AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa Olusegun Obasanjo. Ethiopia has been invited to participate in the meeting. The request by the A3 followed a 15 October statement by AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat expressing concern at the increased fighting in Tigray and calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire.

Hostilities in northern Ethiopia resumed on 24 August, bringing an end to a lull of roughly nine months in the fighting. The renewed fighting has contraposed Tigrayan regional forces against varying combinations of Ethiopian federal forces, Amhara regional forces, Amhara militias and Eritrean forces. After the resumption of hostilities, multiple frontlines rapidly opened in several areas near Tigray’s southern border, western Tigray, and in the north of Tigray. More recently, fighting has intensified in areas close to the Eritrean border in the north of Tigray and in areas in southern Tigray.

In a major development, amid a joint Ethiopian and Eritrean offensive in the north, the Ethiopian forces captured the strategic city of Shire on 17 October. On the same day, the federal government announced its objective to take control of “all airports, other federal facilities, and installations” in Tigray. In an 18 October statement, it claimed that, in addition to capturing Shire, it had taken control of the towns of Alamata and Korem in Tigray’s south.

Tomorrow’s meeting will be the second time Council members discuss the situation in Ethiopia since the resumption of hostilities on 24 August. The previous meeting took place on 28 September in an Informal Interactive Dialogue (IID) format. At that meeting, members were briefed by UN Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Hanna Serwaa Tetteh. Although Obasanjo was also invited to brief, he did not attend the meeting. The Council last discussed the situation in Ethiopia in an open meeting on 8 November 2021. While some members would welcome another open meeting, the A3 have resisted any such request in the recent past. (For background, see our 28 September What’s in Blue story).

The AU Peace and Security Council is expected to convene tomorrow for a briefing ahead of the Security Council’s meeting to discuss the AU-led peace process for Ethiopia. Obasanjo is expected to brief.

Several key international interlocutors—including the UN, the AU, the EU and the US—have expressed concern at the recent escalation of violence and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Many of these statements also called on the Eritrean forces to withdraw from Ethiopia. Tomorrow, participants may echo these calls. For instance, in a 17 October press stakeout, Secretary-General António Guterres said that the situation was “spiralling out of control”, with indiscriminate attacks, including in residential areas, killing innocent people every day. He called for the protection of civilians, including humanitarian workers, for an immediate end to hostilities and the immediate withdrawal and disengagement of the Eritrean forces. The Permanent Representative of Ethiopia to the UN, Taye Atske-Selassie, reacted to the Secretary-General’s statement by saying that it was “unwarranted”, reflected “overly exaggerated assertions” and undermined the AU-led peace efforts—a position Ethiopia may reiterate tomorrow.

The protection of civilians is an expected key focus of tomorrow’s meeting. Airstrikes targeting Mekelle and other sites in Tigray have been reported since hostilities resumed, often resulting in the death and injury of civilians. Sources cited by Reuters have reported that more than 50 people were killed in a 4 October airstrike that hit a school, which was sheltering internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the northern Tigray town of Adi Daero. The news agency reported that the school was on a list of sites housing IDPs that the Office of the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ethiopia sent to Ethiopia’s foreign ministry in January.

On 14 October, airstrikes targeting the town of Shire led to the death of an International Rescue Committee (IRC) member of staff and the injury of another IRC staff member. Two other civilians were reportedly killed and three were injured in the same incident. In an 18 October statement, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that the recent airstrikes in Tigray “risk seriously exacerbating the already devastating impact of hostilities on civilians”. He expressed concern at the “significant risk of escalation in light of continued mass mobilisation of soldiers and fighters by various parties to the conflict”, adding that “indiscriminate attacks or attacks deliberately targeting civilians or civilian objects amount to war crimes”. In this regard, Human Rights Watch recently urged the Security Council, as well as the EU and the US, to “use the appropriate tools, including targeted sanctions and an arms embargo, to protect civilians at risk”. At tomorrow’s meeting, several members may share their views regarding the role that the Security Council should play in future in the context of the conflict and its resolution. Some members may argue for a strengthened role for the Council.

Tomorrow, members may condemn these incidents, underscore that international humanitarian law prohibits indiscriminate attacks, and emphasise the importance of protecting civilians—including humanitarian workers—and civilian infrastructures during armed conflict.

Mudawi is likely to provide an update on the humanitarian situation and describe the status of aid delivery to the northern Ethiopian regions of Tigray, Amhara and Afar. The Secretary-General noted in his 17 October stakeout that aid deliveries to Tigray have been suspended for more than seven weeks, adding that assistance to Amhara and Afar “has also been disrupted”. On 18 October, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric also expressed concern about reports “of possible mass movements of people due to the fighting” in Shire.

In an 18 October statement, the Ethiopian government said that it was “carrying out the necessary preparations” to deliver humanitarian aid through the areas that have come under the Ethiopian forces’ control. The following day, Atske-Selassie said that aid convoys were “making their way to Tigray”. At the time of writing, these reports have yet to be confirmed. Tomorrow, Council members are expected to underscore the urgency of granting unimpeded humanitarian access to all people in need and may seek further information regarding the announcements on aid delivery by the Ethiopian authorities.

Members are likely to seek an update from the Obasanjo on efforts by the AU, the UN and other key international interlocutors to bring the federal and regional authorities to the negotiating table. AU-brokered peace talks were supposed to take place on 8 October in South Africa and were to be facilitated by an expanded team of mediators led by Obasanjo, supported by former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and former South African Deputy President and former Under-Secretary-General and UN Women Executive Director Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. However, the talks were postponed. While a formal announcement regarding a new date for the talks has apparently not been made, according to a 20 October tweet by National Security Adviser to the Ethiopian Prime Minister Redwan Hussein, the peace talks are now scheduled to be held in South Africa on 24 October.

On 7 October, the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) extended the mandate of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) for one year. Among the Security Council members who are also members of the HRC, China, Gabon, India, and the United Arab Emirates voted against extending the ICHREE’s mandate, while Brazil, France, Mexico, the UK, and the US voted in favour. (The ICHREE was established by the HRC in December 2021, with a mandate to investigate violations and abuses of international human rights, humanitarian and refugee law committed by all conflict parties in Ethiopia since 3 November 2020.) Ethiopia has opposed the ICHREE since its creation.

In September, an ICHREE report said that war crimes, including rape and sexual violence, have been committed by Ethiopian, Eritrean and Tigrayan forces. During the Security Council’s annual open debate on Women, Peace and Security today (20 October), several Council members referred to conflict-related sexual violence in northern Ethiopia, with the US citing the ICHREE’s findings. The ICHREE also found evidence of the Ethiopian forces “intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare”, among other violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, and it has recommended that the Security Council place the situation in Ethiopia on its agenda. Tomorrow, members may reiterate concerns about such violations being committed in the context of the conflict and call for accountability.

Source: Reuters

A woman walks past the rubble of a building damaged by fighting in the town of Shire, Tigray region, Ethiopia, March 17, 2021. Picture taken March 17, 2021. REUTERS/Baz Ratner

NAIROBI, Oct 17 (Reuters) – Ethiopian government forces and their allies on Monday captured Shire, one of the biggest cities in the northern region of Tigray, from regional forces, two diplomatic and humanitarian sources said.

The federal government and allied forces, which include neighbouring Eritrea’s military, have been fighting Tigray forces on and off since late 2020.

The conflict has killed thousands of civilians, uprooted millions and left hundreds of thousands now facing possible famine.

Months of discreet American diplomacy have failed to stop the fighting in northern Ethiopia. Now, the civil war is plunging into its most alarming phase yet.

Source: New York Times

Satellite images taken last month showing heavy weaponry and military forces on the move in Serha and Sheraro in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.Credit…Maxar Technologies

By Declan Walsh

Oct. 8, 2022, 8:44 a.m. ET

NAIROBI, Kenya — As fighting flared in northern Ethiopia last month, shattering a five-month truce and reigniting a destructive civil war, a small United States military aircraft carrying senior American diplomats crossed the front line on a secret mission to halt the bloodshed.

Flying low and taking measures to avoid detection, the jet traveled to Tigray, the besieged northern region that has been at war with the Ethiopian government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, before continuing to Djibouti for a round of tense peace talks, according to people familiar with the negotiations. In a measure of the distrust between the two sides, Mike Hammer, the American envoy to the region, flew aboard the U.S. Air Force plane as an assurance that it would not be shot down.

Tigray is the world’s unseen war, a sprawling conflict hidden behind a punishing government siege that has severed communications in the region, locked out reporters and left 5.2 million people in urgent need of food aid. United Nations investigators have called it a war crime.

But in recent weeks the fighting has surged to its most intense level yet — and the secret efforts at peace have given way to raging combat that many fear could quickly spiral across the Horn of Africa, destabilizing the region.

While the world’s gaze is largely fixed on the war in Ukraine, the conflict in Tigray is also huge, with three major armed forces, including two of Africa’s largest armies, those of Ethiopia and of Eritrea, battling on multiple fronts across a rugged region twice the size of Switzerland.

Medhin Gereziher, age 1, receiving treatment for malnutrition at a hospital in Tigray on Tuesday. More than five million people in the region are in urgent need of food aid.Credit…Associated Press

The latest fighting, featuring pitched battles, drone strikes and artillery barrages, has pulled in neighboring countries and involves hundreds of thousands of combatants, by most estimates. At least a hundred civilians have died and as many as 500,000 have fled their homes in recent weeks, a senior United Nations official said.

A diplomatic drive to end the war has also been hidden. An official peace process led by the African Union has been hobbled by disputes over mediators and money for most of the past year, officials say, prompting Western officials to try to carry the ball. Since March, the United States has held three secret meetings outside Ethiopia — in Djibouti and in the Seychelles — bringing together warring leaders for the first time since the war erupted in November 2020.

Details of the latest meeting on Sept. 9, which was attended by Mr. Abiy’s national security adviser, Redwan Hussien, and his justice minister, Gedion Timothewos, were provided by Western and Tigrayan officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss events that the Americans insisted should remain confidential.

A United States official confirmed that a U.S. Air Force Beechcraft aircraft had operated the flight across Tigray on behalf of the State Department.

Now hopes for peace lie with a surprise announcement this week by the African Union, inviting both sides to talks in South Africa.

But the prospects for that initiative are uncertain. Tigrayan leaders have accused the mediator, the former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, of siding with Mr. Abiy. After initially scheduling talks for this weekend, the African Union said on Thursday only that they would take place “soon.”

A World Food Program truck carrying grain to Tigray burning 50 miles from Semera, a town in northern Ethiopia, in June.Credit…Eduardo Soteras/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Events on the battlefield could move faster than that.

Reliable information about the last six weeks of fighting is hard to obtain. But interviews with Western and Tigrayan officials — as well as video footage, satellite images and witness accounts gathered over the region’s few working phone lines — offered a keyhole view of a metastasizing conflict that is exacting a high cost on civilians.

Ethiopian drone strikes hit a kindergarten in August, killing several children, and a U.N. food truck in late September. An airstrike on Tuesday in Adi Da’ero, near the border with Eritrea, hit a center for refugees, killing at least 50 people, said two humanitarian officials in the area who spoke on the condition of anonymity for their safety.

After an earlier strike on the same town, video footage showed the lifeless body of a woman being pulled from smoking rubble.

“The fighting is intense, and the casualties are immense,” Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a former chief of the Ethiopian military, now a strategist for the Tigrayans, said in a phone interview.

A victim of an airstrike being cared for in an ambulance in Mekele, the capital of the Tigray region, last month.Credit…Associated Press

A spokeswoman for Mr. Abiy and spokesmen for the Ethiopian government and military did not respond to requests for comment. The government has denied it strikes civilian targets.

The most striking change in recent weeks is the return to the war of Isaias Afwerki, the dictatorial leader of the nation to the north, Eritrea, and his army, one of the largest in Africa, which was accused of many atrocities in earlier fighting.

Eritrean troops have pounded Tigray with artillery barrages from across the border and captured the Tigrayan town of Shiraro, where recent satellite images showed hundreds of marching soldiers and lines of artillery field guns. In an unusual move, several thousand Ethiopian soldiers have been flown into Eritrea to help with the assault, officials said.

Inside Eritrea, the country has “fully mobilized its armed forces,” calling all men below the age of 55 to military service, Annette Weber, the European Union envoy to the Horn of Africa, wrote to E.U. member states last month in a confidential briefing obtained by The New York Times.

“The war rages on with high military buildup on all sides, increased intensity and Eritrean participation,” Ms. Weber wrote in the leaked briefing, which first appeared on the website of the World Peace Foundation, a program at Tufts University.

“Tens of thousands are injured or killed on the various battlefronts, many with the belief that surrender is no option,” the briefing continued. “Much is at stake.”

President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, right, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, second right, in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, in 2018.Credit…Mulugeta Ayene/Associated Press

The stakes for civilians in northern Ethiopia were outlined in a Sept. 22 report by U.N. investigators that accused both sides of war crimes, including massacres and sexual assaults. But it singled out Mr. Abiy’s forces for “using starvation as a method of warfare” and for “sexual slavery” of Tigrayan women held in military camps.

At Tigray’s largest hospital, doctors say that patients are dying from cancer, kidney disease and other treatable conditions for want of medicines. A recent study found that newborn babies in Tigray are dying at four times the prewar rate.

“One day we will be free of the fear of being bombed from the air,” Dr. Fasika Amdeslaise, a surgeon in Tigray with rare internet access, wrote on Twitter. “One day we will be able to treat our patients.”

The fighting is the latest twist of a war in which the fortunes of both sides have oscillated wildly.

Just a year ago, Tigrayan fighters were marching on the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, after driving government forces from Tigray. But in November they were forced to retreat after Mr. Abiy obtained armed drones from Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and China.

The United States changed tack in January when President Biden made his first phone call to Mr. Abiy, easing the Ethiopian leader’s fears that the United States intended to try to oust him, and setting the stage for secret talks, two American officials said.

Two months later, on March 10, a U.S. Army Beechcraft airplane carried the Tigrayan General Tsadkan to the Seychelles, where he met in a hotel with Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, the head of the Ethiopian military.

Tigrayan residents in Addis Ababa rallied at the headquarters of the African Union on Tuesday. The African Union’s efforts to broker peace have been hobbled by disputes over mediators and money.Credit…Amanuel Sileshi/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The two men hammered out a humanitarian truce that, weeks later, allowed aid convoys to roll back into Tigray. A second American-brokered meeting took place in Djibouti in June.

But the truce was also an opportunity for both sides to rearm, and as the summer wore on Mr. Abiy appeared to drag his feet, officials said. His delegates at talks lacked the authority to make decisions, and he appeared reluctant to restore essential services like electricity and banking to Tigray.

The slide back to war on Aug. 24 prompted criticism from experts who say the Biden administration failed to apply enough pressure to force the warring groups to substantive peace talks.

“The diplomacy is clearly not working,” said Cameron Hudson, a former State Department official at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center. “There’s a lot of effort but they are not achieving anything. So we have to question if we’re using the right tools.”

The re-emergence of Mr. Isaias, the Eritrean leader, adds a volatile new element to the conflict. On Sept. 20 Mr. Hammer, the American envoy, called for Eritreans to return home from the fighting in Tigray.

Other countries in the region are also getting sucked in — as well as a contingent of United Nations peacekeepers.

Ethiopian peacekeepers deployed to the Abyei region arriving in Kassala, Sudan, in May, after seeking asylum.Credit…Hussein Ery/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Sudan has been a “conduit” for flights carrying arms to Tigray, Ms. Weber said in her confidential briefing. In May, about 650 ethnic Tigrayans, on U.N. peacekeeping duty in Sudan, deserted the Ethiopian Army and sought asylum, said two U.N. officials in Sudan who spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of the situation. By August, about 400 of those peacekeepers had vanished, the officials said, mostly into Tigray to fight alongside refugees who had been recruited from camps along the border.

Mr. Hudson, the analyst, said it seemed that Washington was hesitating to take harder action, for instance deploying sanctions that Mr. Biden authorized in November, in the hope that Ethiopia might once again become a strong American partner in the region.

But with Ethiopia straining to the breaking point from the war in Tigray, as well as violent strife in other regions like Oromia, such a notion is “delusional,” Mr. Hudson said.

“We’re not going back to those old days, and certainly not under Abiy,” he said.

A destroyed tank near the village of Erebti, Ethiopia, in June.Credit…Eduardo Soteras/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images