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When Abi Ahmed and his allies launched their war on the Tigray Region of Ethiopia last November, and committed violations against civilians, especially women and children, the international community demanded that they be stopped and the perpetrators held accountable, as did most of the Eritrean national opposition groups and individuals .

The main reason for the pressure to stop the war against Tigray, was the tools and methods that were being used, and the fear of genocide and ethnic cleansing of the population. After its military victory and regaining control of a large part of its land, the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) went on to launch attacks on the Amhara and Afar Regions, causing the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians from their homes, and committing human rights violations. Now the TPLF are turning their attention to Eritrea.

The world's rejection of the war on Tigray does not mean authorising the TDF to terrorize civilians in other Regions within Ethiopia or threaten to invade another country. None of the justifications given by the Tigray leaders for attacking the Afar are acceptable. The Afar did not participate in the war against them, and even if they had participated, the reprisals would not be justifiable under international law.

I am convinced that the Tigray leadership wants to secede from Ethiopia. I am also convinced that the obstacle to the establishment of Tigray as an independent state is not only its need to obtain access to the wider world, but also the isolationist mentality of its leadership. Just as Afwerki erred in ignoring legal, political and humanitarian considerations by participating in the war on Tigray, the TPLF also ignores these considerations when they incite their army and citizens against Eritrea. I predict that doing so will not bring them any benefit but will turn them from victims into executioners.

The Tigray leadership claims that part of its territory is still occupied by the Amhara, but that is an internal dispute. The conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia over the Badame border area, on the other hand, is an international dispute, over which an international authority has ruled in favour of Eritrea. The TPLF doesn’t recognize that decision and wants the international community to recognize the area belongs to their Region - based on a constitution that was drafted and approved when they were ruling Ethiopia.

International pressures to stop the war in northern Ethiopia are now beginning to focus on the Tigray leadership’s responsibilities. The UN Secretary-General's demand for an immediate ceasefire was a tacit rejection of the Tigrayan’s preconditions (such as resuming all services with immediate effect, releasing the region budget, the establishment of humanitarian corridors, releasing all political prisoners)   for a ceasefire. The international community knows that just as the Tigray leadership mobilized their people to defend themselves when they attacked, so could the leaders of the Regions attacked by the Tigrayans, and that this would lead to multiplying ethnic conflicts and chaos.

Afwerki made a grave mistake by participating in the Tigray war, but this does not mean it would be justifiable for the Tigray leadership to launch a war of revenge against Eritrea. Even if the Tigrayans caused the Eritrean regime to collapse, it does not mean that they would be able to control the whole country, or even a part of it. The chaos that a war against Eritrea could cause would affect the whole region, including Tigray, Sudan, the Red Sea and may be beyond

The war in Ethiopia must be stopped and the international community must put pressure on all parties to reach an immediate ceasefire and then settle all problems peacefully within the framework of national and international law.

by Yaseen Mohmad Abdalla