Source: UNHCR

After a two day visit to Asmara, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has issued this announcement.

But how should we interpret it?

First: it will not result in a ceasefire in Tigray

This has been ruled out by PM Abiy.

Reuters reported that Senator Chris Coons, whom President Joe Biden sent as an emissary to Ethiopia, said he urged Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to declare a cease-fire in the embattled Tigray region, but his appeal was rejected.

“I pressed for a unilateral declaration of a cease-fire, something the prime minister did not agree to, and pressed for a rapid move towards a full political dialogue on Tigray’s future political structure,” Senator Chris Coons told reporters during a briefing call Thursday.

Second: it is unlikely to see Eritrean forces withdraw from all of Tigray

The borders of what should be recognised as Tigray is disputed.

For a start, areas along the border with Eritrea were awarded to Eritrea by the International Boundary Commission established at the end of the 1998 – 2000 border war. Some areas were awarded to Ethiopia, but key areas like Badme, Zalambessa and Irob were declared to be part of Eritrea.

This is where the internationally recognised border runs, even if they were held by Ethiopia until the November 2020 war with Tigray erupted.

It’s not clear just how much of what was Tigray before November 2020 the Tigrayan forces now hold.

This is one estimate, by Ethiopia Map.

If this is accurate, then it might result in re-defining Tigray, which could look like this.

This interpretation would allow Eritrean forces to remain in areas to the West of Shire, which were previously part of Tigray.

Already the Amhara are calling areas north of the Tekeze river the “New Zone” – Wolqait, Tsegede and Setit-Humera. It would, of course, cut off Tigray from Sudan.

It was no coincidence that some of the earliest offensives by the Eritreans when the war broke out was around Humera – where the borders of Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia meet.

Would Tigrayans accept this? Unlikely, and the war might not end on these terms, but this is hard to predict.

Third: The Abiy-Isaias agreement says nothing about a Commission of Inquiry into human rights abuses

Earlier this month the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights agreed to a joint Inquiry with the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission.

“United Nations human rights chief Michelle Bachelet has agreed to an Ethiopian request for a joint investigation in the country’s northern Tigray region, where Bachelet says possible war crimes may have been committed.

The United Nations has raised concerns about atrocities being committed in Tigray, while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has described acts carried out in the region as ethnic cleansing. Ethiopia has rejected Blinken’s allegation.

Bachelet “responded positively” to a request from the state-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) for joint investigations in Tigray, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights spokesman Jonathan Fowler said. “The U.N. Human Rights Office and the EHRC are now developing an investigation plan, which includes resources needed and practical modalities, in order to launch the missions as soon as possible,” Fowler said.

Will this now quietly be dropped? Or will President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken, supported by the European Union, insist that Eritrean and Ethiopian forces (together with Tigrayan forces) had to be held to account.

Finally: Will the withdrawal be a prelude to a peace agreement in Tigray?

Peace would require a number of steps.

Here are some that might be involved:

• Opening talks with the TPLF leadership who won the 2020 election in Tigray by a landslide. This would mean dropping talk (in the communique above) of them being a “criminal clique” and accepting them as legitimate partners.
• The involvement of the African Union in talks. The AU has already appointed mediators, who were then rejected by PM Abiy.
• An end to the dispute with Sudan over the al-Fashaga triangle. The UN reported that Eritrean troops were involved in the conflict.
• A resolution of the dispute over the waters of the Nile between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, since the building of the Great Renaissance Dam
• Reparations and reconstruction in Tigray, together with a return of the looted historic treasures which have been taken by the Eritrean troops.

These are only some of the issues that will have to be resolved.

Even a glance at this list shows how difficult it will be.

Might the UAE play a role in bringing the dispute to an end? They were involved in the 2018 peace agreement between Abiy and Isaias. And they have offered to mediate in the Nile dispute over the GERD. 

But the alternative to “jaw-jaw” is “war-war” and that could continue for years, if this opportunity is not grasped.

Source: Addis Standard

Source: MSF

MSF Driver Assaulted, Staff Witness Men Dragged off Buses and Killed in Tigray

Thursday, March 25, 2021 —  Karline Kleijer, MSF Head of Emergency Desk: 

“We are horrified by the continued violence in Tigray, Ethiopia. This includes the extrajudicial killings of at least four men who were dragged off public buses and executed by soldiers, while our staff members were present, on Tuesday 23 March.

The situation on the border could see forces from across the region confronting each other – with Egypt and Sudan on one side and Ethiopia, Eritrea and Amhara militia on the other.

This is what we know. But if you want the history of the al-Fashaga dispute you can find it in this background report.

First: Today there has been a reported clash between Ethiopian and Sudanese militia in the disputed al-Fashaga triangle.

Second: came this report from Bloomberg quoting the UN as saying that Eritrean forces had crossed into al-Fashaga.

Eritrean forces are present inside disputed territory that straddles the border between Ethiopia and Sudan, according to the United Nations.

The deployment in the so-called al-Fashqa triangle comes amid escalating tensions between Ethiopia and and Sudan, according to the United Nations. The deployment in the so-called al-Fashqa triangle comes amid escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan over control of the area of fertile farming land.

“The conflict along the border between Sudan and Ethiopia remains active, with Sudanese Armed Forces and Ethiopian — including Amhara militias — and Eritrean forces deployed around Barkhat settlement in Greater Fashaga and clashes reported since early March,” the UN said Tuesday in its latest situation report on Ethiopia.

Third: Just three weeks ago, Egypt and Sudan signed a new joint security pact.

Egyptian Army Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Mohamed Farid signed the treaty in Khartoum on 2nd March.

General Farid stressed that Egypt “seeks to consolidate ties and relations with Sudan in all fields, especially military and security fields,” adding that “solidarity is a strategic approach imposed by the regional and international environment.”

Warnings of war

These developments came as the Washington Post ran a story headlined: “A border war looms between Sudan and Ethiopia as Tigray conflict sends ripples through region”

The article argued: “Ethiopia’s sudden descent into civil war in its Tigray region has upended a delicate web of regional political equations, sending ripple effects across this corner of Africa, and bringing Ethiopia and Sudan to the brink of a territorial war over this disputed area, known as al-Fashaga. Military and government officials on both sides, as well as independent analysts, said they worry such a war would quickly escalate into a much broader regional conflict….”

“On a recent trip with Sudanese forces to the front line, a major deployment of military and paramilitary troops was visibly underway. Through binoculars, Sudanese officers eyed Ethiopian settlements and fortifications in parts of al-Fashaga they had not yet retaken…”

“Sudan retook most of al-Fashaga after Ethiopian soldiers and Amhara militias were deployed to fight in Tigray. ‘Up until the war in Tigray began, the situation was essentially an Amhara occupation of al-Fashaga,’ said Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Gabir, one of 11 members of Sudan’s so-called sovereign council that presides over government decisions.

It is no easy task representing Eritrea abroad with President Isaias Afwerki as your master.

But seldom are lies so rapidly exposed.

The remark that an ambassador is “sent abroad to lie for his country” comes to mind. Here’s an example.

On Monday this week the Eritrean embassy attacked the Channel 4 programme for reporting that Eritrean troops are in Tigray. As Mr Yared wrote to Channel 4: “there are no Eritrean troops in the region.”

On Tuesday, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed admitted this is not true. Eritrean forces are in Tigray.

It is worth recalling that when the Tigray war began in November 2020 Prime Minister Abiy denied that it was any such thing. Instead, as he told Ethiopians in a Tweet, the fighting was a “law enforcement operation” that would “wrap up soon”.

Five months later the situation looks rather different, with Abiy accepting that he is engaged in a war in Tigray. “We know the destruction this war has caused,” he said.

(see the Al-Jazeera report below.)

Source: Al Jazeera

Ethiopia PM admits Eritrean soldiers entered Tigray region

Abiy Ahmed acknowledges ‘atrocities committed’ during the conflict in the northern region amid concerns over the humanitarian crisis.

Source: AFP

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed admitted Tuesday that troops from neighbouring Eritrea were present in the conflict-torn Tigray region and suggested they may have been involved in abuses against civilians.

The admission comes after months of denials from Addis Ababa and Asmara, and accusations from rights groups and residents mounted that Eritrean soldiers have carried out massacres in Tigray.

Abiy sent troops into the northern region of Tigray on November 4 after blaming the region’s once-dominant ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), for attacks on army camps.

The military campaign to unseat the TPLF has led to a drawn-out conflict that has seen brutal atrocities carried out against civilians.

In a wide-ranging speech to parliament, Abiy said the “Eritrean people and government did a lasting favour to our soldiers”, during the conflict, without giving more details.

“However, after the Eritrean army crossed the border and was operating in Ethiopia, any damage it did to our people was unacceptable,” he said.

“We don’t accept it because it is the Eritrean army, and we would not accept it if it were our soldiers. The military campaign was against our clearly targeted enemies, not against the people. We have discussed this four or five times with the Eritrean government.”

Abiy said that according to the Eritrean government, its soldiers had taken over trenches on the border which had been dug during the 1998-2000 border war between the two nations, after they were abandoned by Ethiopian soldiers.

“Eritrea told us it had national security issues and as a result had seized areas on the border” but had vowed to leave if Ethiopian soldiers returned to the trenches.

He said Eritrea argued the TPLF pushed them to enter the battle “by firing rockets” across the border.

“The Eritrean government has severely condemned alleged abuses and has said it will take measures against any of its soldiers accused of such.”

Source: Addis Standard

Addis Abeba, March 23-2021 – Josep Borrell, High representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the EU Commission, said the block is “ready to activate all our foreign policy tools against those responsible for human rights violations,” in connection with the ongoing armed conflict in Tigray regional state, and that “this applies to all parties to the conflict.”

In a remark issued in Brussles on March 22, Mr Borrell also said that he has “mandated the Finnish Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto, to go back to the region on a second mission and express clearly our readiness to act if this situation continues.” The EU wants to “have humanitarian access to the region and we want an independent investigation on human rights abuses and we want Eritrean troops to be withdrawn.”

During his first mission to Ethiopia as EU’s envoy, the Finnish Foreign Minister accused the federal government of being in “denial” over the depth of the humanitarian crisis in Tigray which he said was spiraling “out of control.”

In response, Ambassador Hirut Zemene, Ethiopia’s envoy to Belgium, Luxembourg and EU institutions, said the envoy’s remarks were “regrettable” and do not “reflect the reality on the ground and contain unsubstantiated claims.” Ambassador Hirut also accused Mr Haavisto of showing “no interest to travel to the region, but instead resorted to visit the refugee camp in neighbouring Sudan and extrapolate grossly inadequate information to provide unfounded claims that put unnecessary pressure on the government of Ethiopia.”

Mr Borrell’s remarks yesterday came in the heels of EU Council’s decision to impose travel ban and asset freeze sanctions “on eleven individuals and four entities responsible for serious human rights violations and abuses in various countries around the world”. Among the four entities targeted for sanction is Eritrea’s National Security Office headed by Major General Abraha Kassa with travel ban & asset freeze. The EU said the Office is “responsible for serious human rights violations in Eritrea, in particular arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances of persons and torture committed by its agents.” The security agency is under the supervision of President Isaias Afwerki.

Mr Borrell’s Full Statement

Five months have passed since the beginning of the so-called “law and order operation” against the Tigray region. Since then, we have been receiving daily reports of human rights violations of massive scale including massive rape, torture, a complete blackout, lack of communication, lack of access to humanitarian help for the people of Tigray.

This is an unacceptable situation that pushes us to continue to put pressure for humanitarian access to be allowed, for independent investigations on human rights abuses to be launched and for Eritrean troops to be withdrawn from Tigray.

We are ready to activate all our foreign policy tools against those responsible for human rights violations. This applies to all parties to the conflict. I have mandated the Finnish Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto, to go back to the region on a second mission and express clearly our readiness to act if this situation continues. We want to have humanitarian access to the region and we want an independent investigation on human rights abuses and we want Eritrean troops to be withdrawn.