Reports from the field say the Tigray forces have held off the first wave of the new federal offensive and may be gaining ground

Into the hell of war, again

21ST OCTOBER 2021

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021

In the run-up to the first year’s anniversary of the war in Tigray, no clear victor has emerged and there is a high risk that the conflict, devastating lives and the economy, could rumble on for many more months with each side claiming periodic breakthroughs.

Hopes that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed‘s election victory, alongside the country’s falling economic growth and investment, might prompt a serious bid to open negotiations with the Tigrayan leaders have been thwarted again.

Both sides are digging in for a more drawn-out fight. After restocking the army, recruiting and training thousands of new soldiers, and importing military supplies from overseas allies, the Ethiopian National Defence Force launched a new offensive against the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) in the first week of October. The Tigray forces claim to have thrown back the offensive, destroyed entire divisions of ENDF soldiers and inflicted thousands of casualties on ‘human wave’ attacks, according to General Tadesse Werede Tesfay, the TDF commander, speaking on Tigray state television on 16 October. A further official statement on 18 October by Tigray spokesperson Getachew Reda claimed that the ENDF had collapsed entirely and no longer existed as an organised force.

The Tigrayans also claim that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secretly contacted them for negotiations. The government in Addis Ababa has not released its account of how the offensive has fared or commented on these claims.

The TDF appears to have made critical gains in the Wollo area, eastern Amhara. If these reports are correct, the rebels will have added to the pressure on Abiy’s administration to make peace.

Attacks by the Ethiopian Air Force on TDF positions opened Abiy’s new offensive on 11 October, followed by a ground offensive. After defending strongly, Tadesse said, the TDF counter-attacked, occupying high ground to the north of Dessie, and taking the town of Chifra, which is 27 miles from the main Addis Ababa-Djibouti road, a vital transport artery, and inflicting enormous casualties.

International organisations are backing the mission of the African Union’s new special envoy to the Horn, Nigeria‘s former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is expected to get mediation under way.

United States President Joe Biden is ready to impose sanctions on federal, Amhara, Tigray and Eritreancommanders if fighting does not cease and humanitarian aid is not allowed to reach affected populations (AC Dispatches 7/9/21, Nigeria’s Olusegun Obasanjo takes on mediating role in war as brickbats fly on both sides). The US sanctions could target military commanders, government officials and state institutions. Even the national carrier, Ethiopian Airlines – which US cable news networks accused of transporting arms – could be targeted. European governments want to keep channels open to Abiy’s new government, while urging moderation, of which there is little sign in Addis Ababa (see accompanying feature, Abiy’s war party digs in).

As the TDF fights the ENDF, the rebellious Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has opened a new front against the federal government in the south (AC Dispatches 16/8/21, A nightmare scenario for Premier Abiy Ahmed as regional opponents coordinate against the federal government). A Tigrayan official said they have been co-ordinating their attacks with the OLA, which clashed with the government forces and Amhara militias in southern Oromia on 4 October. Affected areas include West and North Shewa, near Addis Ababa.

Abiy had been telling Western diplomats that no peace efforts could be made until his new government took office, but they believed this was only intended to buy time before the launch of the latest offensive.

On 5 October, ENDF formations approached Gashena, which lies on the main road west of the TDF-occupied city of Weldiya, but the TDF, which holds the high ground around Arbit and Bego Chereka, west of Gashena, was able to throw them back, security sources said. Gashena lies close to the world-famous rock churches of Lalibela, also controlled by the TDF. As of 17 October, fighting continued around the town, with ENDF units receiving air support, the sources added. The Tigrayans claim that they mounted devastating ambushes on the federal forces (AC Vol 62 No 18, Lies, damned lies and statistics).

Counter-attacks
Tadesse, who once headed the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei, a flashpoint of conflict between Sudan and South Sudan, said that initially federal forces cut the Weldiya-Debre Tabor road at Hamusit village, leaving TDF forces in Gashena potentially exposed, but this ‘challenging’ offensive was eventually repulsed by TDF counter-attacks. ‘We were then able to completely destroy the four divisions that were in the area,’ he said. An ENDF infantry and mechanised convoy proceeding through Wurgessa and Wichale, adjacent to each other on the north-south main road that links Weldiya to Dessie, was ambushed by the TDF and dispersed.

Tadesse said the TDF controlled Bizen, the highest mountain in the Ambassel range, where peaks reach over 3,200 metres above sea level. Around Wegel Tena, between Gashena and Wichale, federal ‘human wave’ attacks had been taking place on 16 October, and around Geregera, he said. He said the corpses of the federal soldiers lay so thick on the ground that he was reluctant to let video footage be shown. He said he had never seen such horrendous losses in his entire military career.

The TDF claimed to have taken both Wegel Tena and Wichale on 17 October, and said it was poised to capture Dessie and Kombolcha. Ten miles south-east of Dessie, Kombolcha and its major fuel depot is a strategic objective. There have been suggestions, not from the TDF, of further TDF incursions towards Dessie, and unconfirmed reports that the ENDF was withdrawing from the city.

North of Chifra, on the Amhara-Afar border, the TDF has also been in action against the ENDF, the security sources say, and controls the Agamsa and Boren hills, where the highlands descend to the flatter ground of Afar. ENDF has been firing heavy artillery and ordering drone strikes in these areas. As the fighting intensified 10 fuel trucks heading from the Afar capital of Semera to the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle via Abala were turned back.

ENDF ambitions to control vantage points between Weldiya and Gashena, such as Ambassel, Weshebo, Kon and Geregera, have been stopped but officially the command is blaming ‘unanticipated circumstances and logistical bottlenecks’, security sources said. ENDF reportedly lost 13 armoured personnel carriers and almost 1,000 troops, with another 900 missing. Horrendous as these losses have been, neither side says that it thinks a breaking point in the conflict will come any time soon. More hopeful voices in Tigray suggest that Abiy’s flair for unpredictability, as well as growing internal pressures, might prompt him to make enough political concessions to unlock the first stage of some negotiations

  • Ministerial statement
Senator the Hon Marise Payne
 
20 October 2021

Australia is deeply concerned at reports of airstrikes on the Tigray capital, Mekelle, and the escalation of conflict in northern Ethiopia.  Australia condemns the ongoing fighting, use of sexual violence and severe restrictions on humanitarian access.

As the conflict nears its one-year anniversary it continues to have a devastating impact on the lives of civilians.

Australia calls on all parties to the conflict to exercise restraint and end the violence.  Humanitarian agencies must also be allowed to provide urgent life-saving support to the millions of people impacted.

Australia urges the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to immediately end hostilities and reach a negotiated solution for the people of Ethiopia and the country’s stability.

Many Australians have close ties to Ethiopia. I extend my deep sympathies to those who have family and friends affected by the conflict.

Media enquiries

OCTOBER 19, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

Kidane Zekarias Habtemariam, from Eritrea, is one of the world’s most notorious and cruellest people smugglers.

He is wanted by a large-scale international investigation into migration crime that is being conducted from the Netherlands.

On 19 October 2021, he was placed on the Dutch National Wanted List.

Source: Politie

Kidane Zekarias Habtemariam

Kidane Zekarias Habtemariam, from Eritrea, is one of the world’s most notorious and cruellest people smugglers. He is wanted by a large-scale international investigation into migration crime that is being conducted from the Netherlands. On 19 October 2021, he was placed on the Dutch National Wanted List.

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Description

Kidane is the head of a camp in Libya where thousands of migrants are living. He is suspected of leading a criminal organization that seeks to make as much money as possible on the backs of migrants. His victims are subjected to severe beatings, kidnapping, rape, and/ or unlawful deprivation of liberty. Many do not survive the journey to Europe, and even if they do make it to the Netherlands, he extorts money from them by making them pay him for the next member of their family who is on their way to Europe.

Where is Kidane?

Kidane escaped from a court in Ethiopia earlier this year, and has been missing without trace ever since. The investigation team want to know where he is.

Who has information?

Some of the Eritreans now in the Netherlands were subjected to Kidane’s practices on their journey here. It is likely that there are people in the Eritrean community who have information about his current whereabouts. The investigation team have made a short film in the Eritrean language Tigrinya, to try to reach them.

Where can you pass on tips?

There is a special number for Eritreans to contact, where they can leave a voice message safely, confidentially, and for free (via Whatsapp or Viber messenger): +31 6 57 72 55 80. Messages can also be left in Tigrinya. It is also possible to send an email about Kidane’s whereabouts to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

How can you help?

Anyone who has contact with people from Eritrea can help. Tell any Eritreans you know that Kidane is on the wanted list, and that it is important for the criminal investigation and prosecution that people share any information they have with the investigation team.

OCTOBER 19, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

Source: European Union

Foreign Affairs Council: Remarks by the High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell at the press conference

Luxembourg, 18/10/2021

“The third issue was Ethiopia. We are marking a sad anniversary, the “first anniversary” of the conflict in Tigray.

Since then, Tigray has been shattered by systematic violations of human rights by armed groups that use war crimes and crimes against humanity as a weapon.

Humanitarian aid has been prevented to arrive, and we will prepare the ground in view of the upcoming United Nations report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on Human Rights expected on 1 November, to give an adequate response, that can start by preparing sanctions.

I am tasking my services to take this forward once we have the Human Rights Abuses Report. At the same time, we need to examine how to continue development assistance to Ethiopia.

Commissioner for International Partnerships, Jutta Urpilainen, will travel together with my Special Representative for the Horn of Africa to Ethiopia [Annette Weber], to send a clear message on behalf of the European Union, on the need to implement a ceasefire and the start of a political process, engaging all actors into a constructive political process.

And certainly the African Union Special Envoy former President [of Nigeria, Olusegun] Obasanjo will have our full support.”

Published OCTOBER 18, 2021
Updated OCTOBER 18, 2021

FILE PHOTO: A tank damaged during the fighting between Ethiopia’s National Defense Force (ENDF) and Tigray Special Forces stands on the outskirts of Humera town. Photo: Reuters

FILE PHOTO: A tank damaged during the fighting between Ethiopia’s National Defense Force (ENDF) and Tigray Special Forces stands on the outskirts of Humera town. Photo: Reuters


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ADDIS ABABA -Rebellious Tigrayan forces accused the Ethiopian government of launching air strikes on the capital of Tigray region on Monday, and though a government official initially denied strikes, state-run media later reported the air force conducted an attack.

The reported raid follows intensified fighting https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-offensive-two-northern-regions-intensifies-tigrayan-forces-say-2021-10-13 in two other Ethiopian regions, where the central government's military is trying to recover territory taken by the northern province's Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

Tigrai TV, controlled by the TPLF, said the attack on the city of Mekelle killed three civilians.

Ethiopia's government spokesman, Legesse Tulu, denied launching any attack. "Why would the Ethiopian government attack its own city? Mekelle is an Ethiopian city," he said.

"Terrorists are the ones who attack cities with innocent civilians in them, not government," Legesse added. He accused the TPLF of killing civilians in fighting in neighbouring regions.

But the state-run Ethiopian Press Agency said late in the day that Ethiopia's air force conducted an air strike and that it was aimed at communications infastructure in the city.

The infrastructure had belonged to the government but had fallen under the control of the Tigrayan forces, the report read. The strike destroyed a communications tower and other equipment, the report read.

Reuters was not able to verify any of the accounts in an area that is off-limits to journalists.

A resident of the city told Reuters one strike hit close to a market, behind a hotel. An aid worker and a doctor in the region also said there had been an attack and a diplomat shared pictures of what they said was the aftermath, including pools of blood and smashed windows.

All asked not to be named. Reuters could not confirm the authenticity of the images.
Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/world/mekelle-capital-ethiopias-tigray-hit-air-strikes-regional-tv

OCTOBER 18, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

To the members and supporters of our movement,
To all patriotic Ethiopians,

NAMa Urgent Call for Survival

The entire Amhara people are fighting along with the Ethiopian Defense Forces and patriotic Ethiopians to counter the massive invasion that the TPLF, the arch-enemy of Amhara and Ethiopia, has been waging since July 12, 2021.
The terrorist TPLF has inflicted heavy casualties on our people in terms of life, body and property in North and South Gondar, North and South Wollo, Waghamra and Afar due to the war it wage.
Today, the TPLF is committing genocide, rape, theft and wreaking havoc in the areas under its control.
The people of Amhara have been able to halt its progress by inflicting heavy casualties on the enemy forces in a multi-pronged campaign following the call for survival by the regional government on July 25, 2021. In this public struggle, the TPLF’s dream of destroying our country by force has been thwarted.
However, the government’s failure to consolidate the military advantage over the enemy achieved by the national defense force and the Amhara forces into a secure victory and the leadership gap has caused extreme harm to our people and has left them feeling betrayed.
We note that the invading force has once again had a chance to recover, similar to what happened after the eight-month law enforcement campaign that followed the November 3, 2020 attack. In this regard, there has been no improvement in the alignment and tactics of our allied forces, as a result the desperate invading army has become emboldened. Currently, it is making great efforts to take control of the area, including Dessie and Kembolcha, using the leadership gaps and weaknesses observed especially in the South and North Wollo fronts.
Distinguished people of Amhara!
You are the first to experience the invasion, remember too, that war is primarily yours. So far, you have been waiting for help, believing that the matter is within the national framework. From now on, if your people show further indifference to the fact that many people are being killed and tortured by the brutal TPLF, millions of people are starving and suffering, the humiliation will be for your children and grandchildren.
Therefore, all those who claim to be Amhara must be determined to destroy the TPLF once and for all. You have been entrusted with the task of being part of a great liberation movement by marching on the front lines and defeating the invading enemy. If you can’t fight for a variety of legitimate reasons, then use your resources, your energy, your knowledge to safeguard the security of your people before it can be looted by the invading enemy.
The Amhara National Movement calls on the people to redouble their efforts and to halt everyday work and education in order to stop the enemy that is poised to loot, destroy and to commit massacres especially in the wollo area.
We call on the people of Amhara to take immediate action against the invaders and to clear the area of ​​terrorists by standing with the national defense forces and Amhara forces in all fronts.
We urge the government to take strong and immediate steps to address the significant gaps in demand, decision-making, gear and food supply and coordination, and to ensure that it fulfills its responsibility to take strong and immediate steps to save the people and the country from destruction.
We would like to point out that it would be difficult to deny the social and political implications of the current situation on the one hand, especially the material and human damage caused by the ongoing invasion, as well as the widespread social unrest, when measured against government efforts to prevent and reverse the invasion. It is true that war considerations, plans, and campaigns are often kept under strict military secrecy. In this regard, it is assumed that there will be a strategic sequence in terms of campaign leadership and frontline decision-making. But the plan and leadership that makes a large community in a large area vulnerable to non-stop and incessant invasion has surely failed to take the community in to account.
The Amhara Regional State Government needs to do its part to eliminate the terrorist TPLF from our people in a short period of time by strengthening the ongoing survival campaign .
Our movement urges the federal government to realize that our people are extremely suffering and to fulfill its responsibilities by immediately correcting any actions that may expose the people to violence, and the country to humiliation and disintegration.
The Amhara National Movement wholeheartedly supports any national and regional efforts to eliminate the TPLF, and calls on all leaders, members and supporters of the organization to take the lead in this final battle. It will provide planning and implementation guidelines for its implementation .
Everything to the front!

OCTOBER 15, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

Source: The Independent

A ‘final offensive’ launched by Addis Ababa in Tigray has raised fears over its impact on the general population, writes Ahmed Aboudouh

broken human skull, pieces of human bones and blood-stained clothes scattered around what looked like a burned mass graveyard, where people were searching a number of identity papers.

These were the gruesome scenes shown in a video obtained by CNN in June, revealing massacres allegedly carried out by Ethiopian soldiers against locals in the northern province of Tigray. Days before, a unilateral ceasefire was announced by Addis Ababa after months-long fighting alongside forces from the Amhara neighbouring region and the Eritrean army in a bid to topple the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Fears are mounting those horrific atrocities could now happen again. The Ethiopian forces have launched what supporters of the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dubbed the “final offensive.” This week, rebels said the government had launched a military push “on all fronts” to regain parts of Tigray and Amhara taken by the TPLF forces in June.

The war dates back to last November, when the government declared victory after seizing the regional capital Mekelle. But the TPLF kept fighting and managed to retake Mekelle and most of Tigray after government soldiers withdrew at the end of June.

Reports said this week coordinated attacks by the government forces and its allies took place in the Amhara and Afar regions close to Tigray’s southern border. The ground operations, the reports confirmed, are being backed by drones and airstrikes.

“An offensive by the Ethiopian military, together with a vast newly recruited army drawn from the country’s ethnic militia, has been launched,” Martin Plaut, a fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, said.

Since the ceasefire, Ahmed’s war calculations were ultimately hampered by the lack of a political mandate, the heavy rain that swamped the north this year and severe shortages in manpower and weapons.

But in July, the Nobel Prize Laureate won the election with a landslide. Perhaps the tremendous political victory, Ahmed felt, was a nod from the Ethiopians to finish the arduous, protracting war in Tigray. And this, of course, means nothing less than total victory.

“Abiy Ahmed’s aides now feel the wind beneath their wings to get the job done,” one source in the region told The Independent.

Addis Ababa has designated the TPLF as a terrorist group, and government-backed media has been engaged in a campaign aimed at demonising the region’s ruling party, accusing it of trying to fragment the country.

In the past months, the campaign proved helpful to fire up nationalism among ordinary Ethiopians, bolster Ahmed’s political position and boost the vigorous recruitment of young men who “showed their patriotism” to join the fight.

This happens with a clear objective: “the people of Tigray [should] forever be separated from the terrorist group]”, Ahmed previously said, referring to the TPLF.

The Tigrayan forces have been pushing for reopening supply lines and ending the government forces’ blockade on the region by trying to seize strategic areas. This includes the North Wollo zone, Lalibela and Gondar, a strategic city on the crossroads to Sudan and Eritrea.

“The government’s priority will be to remove Tigrayan forces from neighbouring regions, which they pushed into following the withdrawal of federal forces from much of Tigray in late June and weaken their capacity to secure control of strategic supply lines,” Ahmed Soliman, a research fellow at Chatham House, said.

But to reach this objective, western diplomats say, Ahmed would lay down a “smokescreen” around the humanitarian situation to gain time without being under pressure from abroad.

This month, Addis Ababa expelled seven UN humanitarian officials and accused them of “meddling” in the conflict. The dramatic move could be intended as a cover-up of widely reported brutality by its forces and tighten the screws on the humanitarian operations as part of its preparations for the battle.

Since the war started last year, around two million people in Tigray have been displaced while warnings, including by the UN, have been centerd on a famine gripping over 400,000 people.

There are growing fears by the UN of a return to widespread famine in the region

Ahmed Soliman, a research fellow at Chatham House

“With malnutrition and starvation deaths rising, and restricted humanitarian access leading to an acute shortage of basic commodities and medicines, there are growing fears by the UN of a return to widespread famine in the region,” Mr Soliman said.

Witnesses have often blamed the Ethiopian soldiers and their Eritrean allies for using gang rape, mass expulsion and starvation as a weapon against the six million civilians bearing the brunt of the war in Tigray.

Ethiopian authorities don’t deny massacres carried out by their forces, which Amnesty International called “war crimes” that would amount to crimes against humanity.

In a statement sent to The Independent, a spokesperson for the Ethiopian embassy in London said Addis Ababa would not tolerate the carnage. “The Government has taken measures to investigate and hold accountable perpetrators of crimes committed within the context of the conflict, through the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, as well as in collaboration with the UN,” the statement said.

“No person, including serving soldiers, is above the law,” it added.

Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed (1st row, R) salutes members of the national defence forces

But observers insist several crimes, such as mass starvation and blocking access to humanitarian aid, are not isolated incidents committed by individuals. Instead, they claim they are techniques deliberately deployed by the government as part of a broader strategy to break the Tigranian resistance.

“Abiy has two objectives in Tigray. The first is to starve the population either into subjugation or out of existence. The second is to do that without attracting the global opprobrium that would arise from deliberately causing a massive famine taking millions of lives,” said Mark Lowcock, former UN relief chief who is currently a distinguished non-resident fellow with the Center for Global Development.

The dire humanitarian situation has been the centre of a parallel war of narratives where the two sides brand each other as war criminals.

Last month, the government accused the TPLF of killing and burying 120 civilians around the town of Dabat, near Gondar in the Amhara region.

In addition to the Tigryans, tens of thousands of people have also been displaced in neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions as a result of the ongoing bloodshed.

Ethiopian officials remain defiant. The London embassy spokesperson pledged to The Independent that the government would do whatever it takes to accelerate “the process” to end the TPLF hold over Tigray, stop its “atrocities”, and get aid to people in the region and Amhara and Afar.

“The Government of Ethiopia remains committed to employing everything at its disposal to expedite the process and let the necessary aid reach the people of Tigray.”

Despite the TPLF’s continued aggression, which is exacerbating the humanitarian situation, the international community has remained silent

The Ethiopian embassy in London

“Despite the TPLF’s continued aggression, which is exacerbating the humanitarian situation, the international community has remained silent. We, therefore, call upon the international community to stand with the people and government of Ethiopia in condemning the TPLF’s atrocities and encroachment into other regions,” it added.

On the other side, the TPLF insist Ahmed has to go, saying he has initiated a “genocidal war” against their region.

“The Tigrayans have their backs to the wall. They are resisting the offensive while attempting to find a way of breaking out of the blockade around Tigray. This would mean carving a path to Sudan or Djibouti,” Mr Plaut said.

Western diplomats describe the pressure on Tigray as “unbearable.” The TPLF seems to have run out of options other than keeping up the fight, a strategy they previously proved to have mastered against a combined assault by Addis Ababa and Asmara.

They vowed to hold their ground, but it is not yet clear for how long.

Experts say the best strategy for the Tigrayan ruling party is to seek a negotiated solution to offset the massive government barrage.

Reports have said the Tigryan leaders have sought to discover the possibility of dialogue with the government over a more effective ceasefire.

But perhaps such an outcome can prove elusive given that the massive attack is at its early stages and that Ethiopian MP’s legitimacy as an able, strong leader who could maintain the country’s territorial integrity is at stake.

Ahmed’s government also seems to have run out of options. “The irony is that Abiy Ahmed’s game plan cannot work. If he tries and fails to destroy Tigray, he will be destroyed himself. If he succeeds, he will never survive the backlash that will follow,” Mr Lowcock noted.

“His best strategy is to try and find a way to start a dialogue with the Tigryans and get the hardliners within his ranks to join it,” he added.

There are, however, no signs Ahmed would consider the negotiations option soon.

International pressure on Addis Ababa to end the fighting has also built up. Neighbouring countries fear the crisis would turn into an all-out war that would lead to the disintegration of Ethiopia. Reports said diplomatic efforts by the African Union were underway behind the scenes to encourage talks.

The Biden administration also recently said it is conducting an interagency review as it considers targets for possible sanctions against the Ethiopian and Tigryan leaders.

Breaking the TPLF’s and re-capturing the whole of Tigray “would allow Ahmed’s government to be in a stronger position to resist American and European pressure to open negotiations with the Tigrayan regional government,” Mr Plaut stated.

OCTOBER 14, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

“Speaking exclusively to The National, a senior US official said President Joe Biden’s administration is finalising an inter-agency process that would bring sanctions on people and entities responsible for the fighting…Asked about the targets of the sanctions, the US official mentioned ‘leaders, military forces or commercial entities who prolong the crisis, obstruct progress, or continue to hinder humanitarian access, or commit serious human rights abuses’.”

Source: The National

US considers sanctions on Ethiopia’s military commanders and commercial entities

Senior US official tells ‘The National’ that sanctions would include leaders, military forces or companies prolonging the Tigray conflict

By Joyce Karam ,Washington, Oct 13, 2021

Nearly a year since fighting broke out in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the US is weighing sanctions on the country’s government, warring factions and commercial entities fuelling the fighting.

Speaking exclusively to The National, a senior US official said President Joe Biden’s administration is finalising an inter-agency process that would bring sanctions on people and entities responsible for the fighting.

Last November, Addis Ababa launched an offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Since then, the conflict has spread to the Amhara region and has displaced more than two million civilians and leaving 5.2 million people in urgent need of food aid, the UN has reported.

The Ethiopian federal government, the Amhara regional government, the Tigrayan regional government and the Eritrean government are all involved in the conflict.

This week, the Ethiopian military launched a ground offensive to try to reverse recent TPLF gains, western officials told The New York Times.

The offensive throws a spanner into US, European and UN efforts to broker an immediate ceasefire, and strengthens the argument inside the Biden administration to impose sanctions.

Last month, Mr Biden signed an executive order that approved the structure of potential sanctions against perpetrators of violence in Ethiopia.

“The hope is not to have to use this tool [sanctions]. We want to prepare for negotiations for all parties to come to the table to end this conflict, to stop the human suffering and to let humanitarian assistance flow into that region where so many people are desperately in need,” the senior official said.

“But where we are now is that neither the TPLF, nor the [Ethiopian] government and their forces have stopped their offences and counter offences, and they’re not coming to the table, so we are currently looking at employing this tool.”

We’re holding out some sort of glimmers of hope but unfortunately it’s not looking very optimistic

Senior US official

Asked about the targets of the sanctions, the US official mentioned “leaders, military forces or commercial entities who prolong the crisis, obstruct progress, or continue to hinder humanitarian access, or commit serious human rights abuses”.

Such designations would first undergo a thorough process of gathering evidence and consulting across different agencies, the official said.

In an investigation last week, CNN revealed that Ethiopia’s government used its state-owned commercial airline to transport weapons to and from neighbouring Eritrea during the first weeks of the conflict in Tigray.

But while readying sanctions, Washington is exhausting diplomatic avenues to reach a ceasefire.

“We don’t do this lightly. We’re holding out some sort of glimmers of hope but unfortunately it’s not looking very optimistic,” the senior US official added.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, has described the war as a “law enforcement operation”.

The UN estimates 400,000 Tigrayans are living in famine-like conditions and humanitarian organisations have documented extrajudicial killings and rape.

The US State Department has launched a legal review examining whether the Tigray humanitarian crisis amounts to genocide.

On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met African Union High Representative for the Horn of Africa Olusegun Obasanjo to stress the urgency of finding a path to negotiations.

The Biden administration is also considering the expulsion of Ethiopia from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by the end of the month, which would further constrain its economy and cut its duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products.

“It’s required by the law of the United States, it must restrict AGOA eligibility for countries that have committed gross violations of human rights,” the official said.

William Davison, a senior analyst on Ethiopia with the International Crisis Group, saw the imposition of US sanctions as highly probable in the next few weeks.

“Given the current situation and the likelihood of continued fighting, particularly in the Amhara region, I think we are likely to see the US implement targeted sanctions soon, maybe around the end of the month,” Mr Davison told The National.

The expert said commanders from the warring sides are likely targets.

“For the next few weeks at least, the parties are locked into more conflict and that’s what makes it likely that commanders on all sides will soon face sanctions.”

Asked if such penalties would change the calculus on the ground, Mr Davison said not immediately.

“The immediate reaction to the sanctions will most likely be defiance from the federal government. I do not think it will change its policy on the war. By and large, that goes for the other actors in the conflict as well when their commanders are sanctioned,” he said.

For the calculations to change, “the overall pressure has to increase, on the security, political and economic fronts, in such a way that more people in the Ethiopian government and society start to think that the trajectory that the country is on is very worrying and needs to be altered,” he argued.

OCTOBER 14, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

Source: Canadian dimension

CANADIAN POLITICSAFRICAWAR ZONES

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa in an attempt to shore up support for a seat for Canada on the United Nations Security Council, February 7, 2020. Photo from Twitter.

In the final weeks of September, images began to emerge of severely malnourished children from Tigray, the northernmost region of Ethiopia, home to around seven million people. These pictures provided visual proof of the humanitarian calamity the United Nations has long been warning about.

Tigray is currently suffering the worst famine anywhere in the world, with millions in dire need of food. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs revealed that 400,000 people in Tigray are suffering from catastrophic hunger while USAID puts the number at nearly one million. According to UNICEF, over 100,000 children in Tigray are at risk of starvation-induced deaths, while the UN is recording “unprecedented” malnutrition (now over 22 percent) particularly among children, pregnant women, and new mothers.

Terrible stories from the region, of people going for days without eating or subsisting on leaves to survive, underscore the severity of the famine, which has already killed hundreds, if not thousands. All the more horrific is that this famine, which threatens the lives of millions, is not the result of drought or a natural disaster. It is a man-made famine, brought on by the systematic and deliberate campaign of destruction unleashed on Tigray by the governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea since November 2020 in their military offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

On November 4, 2020, while much of the world was engrossed in the outcome of the US presidential elections, Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war on Tigray. This declaration followed years of escalating political tensions between the Ethiopian federal government and the regional government in Tigray. While ostensibly declaring it a domestic law and order operation, Abiy invited forces from Eritrea and the neighbouring Amhara region to launch a brutal offensive against the people of Tigray.

Despite the communications blockade imposed by the Abiy regime since November, news began to emerge of atrocities carried out by the Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces in Tigray, including hundreds of massacres, pervasive sexual and gender-based violence, and attacks on religious sites, all of which have decimated the region’s health, food, and education infrastructure and displaced millions. The atrocities perpetrated by the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments amount to war crimes, crimes against humanity, and bear the hallmarks of genocide.

The man-made famine is a central component of Abiy’s campaign in Tigray. With roads in and out of the region closed, trade and commerce halted, and humanitarian organizations prevented from accessing the north of the country, there were warnings of famine as early as January of this year. Reports show that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces destroyed and looted crops, killed livestock, burned food supplies, banned farming, and blocked humanitarian access into Tigray in a deliberate attempt to create and exacerbate the starvation crisis. Since being pushed out of many parts of Tigray in late June, the Ethiopian government has continued to besiege the region, cutting off its inhabitants from electricity, transportation, communication, and enacting a de facto aid blockade.

Recognizing that the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe from the war on Tigray is too grave to ignore, the United States and the European Union (as well as the United Kingdom) have been working to facilitate a cessation of hostilities. On September 17, US President Joe Biden signed an executive order authorizing a wide-ranging sanctions regime on Ethiopia. Similarly, on October 7, the EU parliament adopted a resolution calling for sanctions and an arms embargo on Ethiopia. Many other states, international organizations and humanitarian agencies have similarly been vocal in their calls for an end to the hostilities.

There is, however, one notable absence among the chorus of voices holding Mr. Abiy’s regime to account: Canada. Since November, beyond issuing a few half-hearted statements, the Trudeau government has not taken any meaningful steps to utilize the tools at its disposal to facilitate an end to the conflict. The Canadian response has been weak and ineffective, which is surprising given the significant leverage at Canada’s disposal. Ethiopia is one of the largest recipients of Canadian development assistance, having received nearly $2 billion between 2010 and 2019. Moreover, in 2018 alone, trade between Canada and Ethiopia peaked at over $170 million.

Canada has a strong economic relationship it could use to push for a meaningful ceasefire and the opening up of aid access into Tigray. Yet, not only has Justin Trudeau’s government shown its unwillingness to move beyond tepid statements, but it has also continued to provide financial support to the Ethiopian government, which stands accused of atrocities and helping to spur the world’s worst famine crisis in a decade.

Justin Trudeau and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, February 8, 2020. Photo from Twitter.

While it is easy to dismiss the humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray as just another war in a remote part of the world, this crisis should be at the centre of Canadian foreign policy discourse for two key reasons. First, Canadian presence across the world needs to live up to the values its leaders claim to espouse. As early as 2015, Prime Minister Trudeau promised to bring Canada’s “compassionate and constructive voice” back to the world stage. However, with respect to Tigray, the Trudeau government has been neither compassionate nor constructive. In fact, in so far as it has had a discernable voice at all, it has raised it in defense of a regime that has been accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide. The complete disjuncture between Canadian foreign policy rhetoric and practice should be alarming and disconcerting to all.

Second, and more disturbingly, reporting by The Breach has revealed that Canadian mining companies have been investing heavily in Tigray since November 2020. At least six Canadian firms are either already in or have licenses to operate in Tigray, while two Canadian companies have worked closely with the Ethiopian government amid the war. The reporting suggests that the Canadian government’s lacklustre response to the humanitarian catastrophe may be influenced by its desire to protect the millions of dollars it has spent to reform the mining sector in Ethiopia and protect the investments of domestic mining companies that believe the region “holds billions of dollars in gold.”

As is well known, Canadian mining companies have been widely criticized for their conduct across the Global South, which includes environmental disasters, gross human rights abuses, and attacks against Indigenous peoples. The link emerging between Canadian mining interests in Tigray and Canada’s ongoing support for the Ethiopian government could be the newest addition to this roster of injustices. That this is happening under a government that prides itself on its feminist credentials and espouses noble values about Canada’s benevolence makes it all the more hypocritical.

If Prime Minister Trudeau wants to bring Canada’s compassionate and constructive voice back to the world stage, this is the time to do so. The Abiy government’s war in Tigray represents a decisive moment for Canada to affirm the values it proclaims guide its presence in the world, by deploying all of the economic, political, and diplomatic tools at its disposal to help bring a swift end to the humanitarian crisis before it spirals out of control.

Fifi H. is a graduate student in the field of international political economy. Her research focuses on the political economy of development and urbanization in the African context.

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