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February 14, 2019 Martin Plaut News, Uncategorized

This study by the Economist Intelligence Unit draws lessons from conflicts in Rwanda, Sri Lanka and Colombia.

The full report is here: Post Conflict Trade

This is an extract

A key part of creating and sustaining economic growth in post-conflict countries is increasing trade. This is not an easy task, however, and it is not without risks. Most, if not all, post-conflict countries were at low levels of development when their conflicts began and are highly dependent on primary commodities exports for growth. Continued dependence on these products raises the likelihood that the country will revert back to conflict, as well as creating continuing opportunities for corruption at both the state and the local level. But moving up the value chain is difficult. It requires hard infrastructure like roads, bridges and rail and electricity generation and transmission, and for the general population to attain education that endow them with basic skills. They also take time.

Ethiopia and Eritrea both face problems in these areas. To provide insights into their post-conflict trade and development environment, The Economist Intelligence Unit was commissioned by DP World to produce a series of three case studies on how post-conflict countries around the world have dealt with similar issues, for better and worse.

The first case study looks at the coffee industry in Rwanda. Like Ethiopia, Rwanda is a landlocked country and coffee is one of its primary exports. In the aftermath of a civil war and the 1994 genocide, the government instituted a plan to move the country’s coffee industry up the value chain, and compensate for being landlocked, by producing specialty coffee. The early results were mixed, but more recently the effort appears to be paying off.

Potential lessons for post-conflict countries

Every country in a post-conflict situation finds itself facing different problems. The scale and nature of the conflict matters greatly. How much destruction was caused to the country’s physical capital? How much of the population was displaced as a result of the conflict and will they be able to return? Can trust in institutions and civil society be re-established among the combatants?

Nevertheless, there are basic and generalisable lessons that can be drawn from countries that have been or are going through the process of post-conflict recovery. These lessons form a baseline for that recovery. This paper, which looked at three such cases, provides the following lessons:

Identify sensible opportunities for moving up the value chain.

Being ambitious is important to post-conflict development, and development in general. But it must be tempered by reality. Rwanda wanted to develop a manufacturing sector, as do most countries seeking to climb the economic ladder. And it still might be able to do so, despite being landlocked and short of (at least at the time) reliable power. In the short-term, however, it wasn’t a realistic option. What made more sense was to identify existing industries where there were possibilities to add more value rather than start from scratch elsewhere. For Rwanda that meant building a specialty coffee industry off the back of its production and trade in commodity coffee.

Sri Lanka has done likewise by developing a tyre industry on the strength of its domestic rubber output, but it has also found success by leveraging the relatively higher levels of education and skills in its labour force to position itself in niche links in global supply chains, such as the manufacture of weighing components for neonatal incubators.

Beware white elephants.

Right now there is a significant amount of capital available for funding infrastructure projects in Asia and Africa. On its face, this is a welcome development. Almost all of the countries in the two regions, post-conflict or otherwise, are in dire need of paved roads that reach rural areas, upgrades to creaking railways and additional, and reliable, power generation capacity.

Were Ethiopia and Eritrea to focus on these more quotidian types of infrastructure projects, it would do much to improve their export capabilities.

Yet the temptation to build big and shiny airports and other types of facilities where ground can be broken with a golden shovel, and the new building unveiled with a ribbon-cutting photo op, is hard to resist.

But it must be. The case of Sri Lanka and its nearly-empty airport and sleepy new seaport is illustrative of the problems caused by white elephant projects. It is just one example among many, however.

Create an enabling environment for PPPs (Public Private Partnerships).

These are not without problems, but for many countries PPPs can be the best available option. Most, if not all, post-conflict countries lack the domestic capabilities to build the kind of hard and soft infrastructure economic recovery requires. Bringing in foreign firms as partners with the government can help to overcome this constraint, as well as transfer knowledge and expertise to the local populations in a range of areas, such as in digitisation, data analytics and integrating production with global supply chains.

The local environment needs to be conducive for these agreements to be effective, however. Colombia performs well in this regard. Many countries don’t, especially those where good and consistent governance and clearly defined laws and regulations are in short supply.

To a certain extent, however, improvement only comes with experience, but there are areas where quick gains can be made, such as co-ordination among government entities when developing and awarding contracts, creating high-level political support for PPPs and ensuring transparency during the bidding process.

February 13, 2019 Martin Plaut News

Source: Eritrea Watch

Eritrean social media pages have, for the last few weeks, been awash with the news coming out of Eritrea. The Assassination Attempt of Gen. Sebhat Efrem! Details of the incident are sketchy and one had to depend on anonymous sources, and to an extent on a hear say for details of the incident.

Who is the General

General Sebhat Efrem is the current Minister of Mines of the country Eritrea. He is a well known for his role as the commander of the gorilla army during the liberation of Eritrea from Ethiopia. He is best Known for his skilful leadership and personality.

In the internal politics of the EPLF (the liberation army), however he is known for his staunch loyalty and support of the current President of Eritrea. The now totalitarian dictator, has dominated the Pre and Post history of Eritrea. With that part of history, known for its secrecy, betrayal, foul plays and even disappearances – the General is well known to have taken the side of the movement leader, now dictator.

After Eritrean independence, he has fallen out of favour with his boss. Sidelined to be a Minster of Health, yet remained loyal. In the Coupé d’etat attempt of the 2013, commonly known as the Operation Forto, coming to the rescue of his boss once again. Historically, he is considered as loyal subject and a snitch to the dictator in power.

Leading to incident

Unexplained decisions and incidences, have people believe the Assassination Attempt was no coincidence of sorts. The public blieves, this was no work of an individual, as the unofficial report indicates; or doesn’t indicate.

– Anonymous sources, and confirmed by at least one relative, have described security apparatus on the hunt for certain people who happen to be His former staff at the Ministry of Defence. Those people would be hunted and arrested in the two weeks leading up to the incident. The name Col. Wunesh, comes up in all sources, though the number of people arrested is believed to be about fifteen or more.

– In the days leading up to the incident, the Municipality is said to have checked and pounded dogs which have not been vaccinated. They concentrated more at the vicinity where the General is residing.

– More mysterious incidences are to follow two days before the said incident. The security detail of the General’s residences are given a break and would not report for duty in the area.

– On the day of the Assassination Attempt, there is to be a power outage in the area of residence.

The Assassination – failed attempt

Anonymous witnesses confirmed the assailant was captured by passersby and handed over to security. He allegedly sneaked in to the residences, taking advantage of the darkness caused by the power outage on the evening. It is believed he was armed with a gun, a silencer, as no gun shot is heard by neighbours. He is to shoot the General once on the head, but the gun malfunctioned before shooting second time.

Details of the assailant and his wherebouts after capture are sketchy. Some sources claim he is from a military division assigned to guard the unofficial residences of the President, at Adi Halo.

Suicide followed by – a failed Coupé d’etat

The president of the country, Isayas Afwerki, is said to be under immense pressure to reform. Specially after the peace deal he signed in July with Ethiopia. He should feel a revolt from his ranks on how he handled the peace process with Ethiopia. The president has been in power for almost 28 years, he finds his safety net in holding on to power. Though many attempts to topple him, the knowns and unknowns, he should feel the current crisis poses a greater threat to his power. In September, when he travelled to Saudi Arabia to sign a new agreement with Ethiopia, he took his son – Abraham Isayas – with. This act would create crisis, even with in his support group, that he was about to groom his son for the position as a successor. That by all means seemed, his plan B.

General Sebhat Efrem, even during the struggle for independence, was known for his charming character and witty skills of negotiation. He has managed to outmaneuver opponents, yet without making so many enemies. For external players, like the US, he has come across as a person with a unifying influence, solid support base in the army and better communication counterpart. It is believed he has also voiced concern with the president’s handling of the recent peace process with Ethiopia.

All this seems to make the President more irrelevant. The president could not stand the idea, the General would be considered as a potential successor. On the most recent visit by a delegation from US, it is believed they inquired about the General’s attendance. Request was rejected by the President.

Speculation is rife, the failed Assassination Attemp, was was pre-empted, and with pre-manufactured reasons meant to persuade many of the General’s supporters and the public – this was a failed Coupé d’etat followed by suicide.

Post Assassination Attempt

After the incident, the General was flown to a hospital in Dubai, UAE. It is believed authorities in Dubai only learnt the importance of the person under treatment after few days. They are to make a security arrangement, after voicing dismay with the Ambassador of Eritrea in UAE. Contrary to other reports that stated he was not accompanied by anybody, sources confirm three people flew alongside him. The wife, a doctor and a party Official, who goes by the nick named Kisha.

He is believed to be in a stable condition. Sources claim even though he has started to communicate, his full recovery seems a long upheaval.

As of yet, there is no Official clarification on the part of the government about the General’s assassination attempt.

Nor his Progress.
It’s a developing story….