Wednesday, 16 December 2020 00:12

Evidence Mounts of Eritrean Troops Abducting and Forcibly Returning Eritrean Refugees from Camps in Tigray

Written by Eritrea Hub

DECEMBER 15, 2020 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS

Source: Human Rights Concern – Eritrea (HRCE)

14 December 2020

Eye-witness testimony is emerging confirming reports that the Eritrean military are entering refugee camps in Tigray, attacking Eritrean refugees, and forcibly returning large numbers of them to Eritrea. Many of these refugees were deliberately shot and seriously injured, and are recovering in hospitals in Eritrea, where they have been taken against their will.

A constitutional dispute between the leaders of the Northern province of Tigray, The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Federal Government of Ethiopia escalated into full-scale war last month when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent the Federal army into Tigray to impose a State of Emergency. Federal troops now occupy the province’s towns and capital city. All communications have been severed within Tigray, so no news channels are open and roads are closed to all traffic except the military.

Eritrean refugees in Adi Harush camp are living in terror, since armed people have been entering the camp, harassing them and taking their belongings.

From Hitsats camp eye-witnesses report that towards the end of November about 10-armed people came into camp and started shooting at random. Many people were shot; some are seriously injured, and some died. The injured were loaded into trucks and forcibly returned to Eritrea. Several of the injured were hospitalised in Barentu hospital in Eritrea. Two died from their injuries, while 32 others are still receiving treatment in the hospital. Other refugees who sustained serious injuries from gunfire at Hitsats camp were taken to Glass Military hospital in Keren, Eritrea.

Several sources in Eritrea have confirmed that refugees from Tigray continue to be forcibly returned by Eritrean soldiers and brought to different parts of the country since the war started.Refugees who have been rounded up by Eritrean soldiers from the camps in Tigray (possibly from Hitsats and Shimelba) are arriving in considerable numbers. On Thursday, 10th December, five large “dumper” or “tipper” trucks full of refugees were brought back to Eritrea, again escorted by soldiers. Three of these trucks full of refugees were taken to Shambuko, and subsequently two of the vehicles were taken to Shilalo. The refugees are presently being detained there.

Elizabeth Chyrum, Director of Human Rights Concern-Eritrea, commented: –

“There is now no doubt that the Eritrean military are not only present in Tigray but have been allowed a free hand by the Ethiopian authorities to do whatever they wish with Eritrean refugees in Tigray, including forcibly returning them to the very country they fled from in fear of their lives.

What is being perpetrated against Eritrean refugees in Tigray is a crime on a massive scale. The Eritrean military’s unacknowledged presence in Tigray is part of a criminal conspiracy to forcibly repatriate Eritrean refugees to the country they fled from, where imprisonment, torture and possible death await them, as the UN Commission of Inquiry into Human Rights in Eritrea bore witness. Such forcible return of helpless refugees utterly violatesfundamental principles of international refugee treaties, including the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol on Non-Refoulement.

The international community MUST take notice of this imminent threat and recognise the very real danger to all Eritreans in Ethiopia. They MUST NOT be forcibly returned (or “refouled”) to the country from which they fled because of persecution.

It is vital that UN Member states warn the government of Ethiopia that it is complicit in criminal acts by the military forces of Eritrea in Tigray.

The government of Ethiopia must be reminded of its international legal duty to protect all who claim sanctuary in its territory and its urgent obligation to provide food and medical care to the remaining refugees in the camps in Tigray, who are now threatened with death from starvation unless the government of Ethiopia takes immediate action to ensure food and supplies reach them.”

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Human Rights Concern – Eritrea (HRCE)

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+44 7958 005 637

www.hrc-eritrea.org

Tuesday, 15 December 2020 02:46

ንታሪኽ !!!!

Written by ተኽለ መለኪን

ወግሐ ጸብሐ ኣብ ኤሪትራን ኢትይጵያን ዘጋጥምን ዝውሰድን ዘሎ ተረኽቦታት ክንሰምዕን ርእይቶታትና ከነቐምጥን ጸኒሕና። ተቓውሞና ተወዳዲቡን ሓቢሩን ኣብ ውጽኢት ከርኢ ዝኽእል ዕማማት ዝኣቱ፤ በቢ ኮም ተኣኻኺቡ፤ ነቲ ሕቶ ዘየድልዮ ናይ ኣብ ሓደ ምምጻእ ስጉምቲ ንክ ወስዱ ጊዜ ይወስድ ጥራይ ዘይኮነ ንስኻ እቶ ንስኻ የለኻን እናተባህለ ኣብ ጊዜ ዝበልዕን፥ ኣብ ካልእ ከተስግል ዝገብርን ምምላስ ይስማዕ። ፖለቲካዊ ውድባት ሰሚረን ሓንቲ ትመርሐን ኣካል ኣብ ክንዲ ዘቑማን ንተቓውሞ ኣብ ክንዲ ዝመርሓን፥ ሽማግለታት ብምውጻእ ንጥርኑፍ ኣመራርሓ ዘይጥዕም መገዲ ሒዘን ይርከባ። ኣብ ምሉእ ደምበ ተቓውሞ፥ መን ተቓዋማይ መን ናይ ውሽጢ ኣርበኛ ምዃኑ ከተለሊ ዘጸግም ኩነታት ተፈጢሩ ኣሎ።

ኩነታትና ከምዚ ኢሉ እንከሎ ድማ ኣቢይን ኢሳያስን ብዝመደብዎ እነሆ ኣብ ዶብና ውግእ ተባሪዑ ንርኢ። ዘሰንብድ ክኸውን ይኽእል፤ ናይ ኣብይን ኢሳያስን ዕርክነት ብመሰረቱ ናይ ሓባር ትምኒታቶም ስለዝተሰማምዔ ኢዩ። ኢሳያስ ካብ ዝተበገሰላ ዕለት ኣትሒዙ ንሰውራ ኤሪትራ ጨውዩ ናብ ኢትይጵያ ንክመልሳ ዝተበገሰ ብምንባሩ፤ ካብ ጊዜ ሰውራ ኣትሒዙ፤ ነቲ ጅግና ህዝብን ሰራዊትን ገጹ ከርእዮ ስለዘይደፈረ፤ መጀመርያ ብውግኣትን ብመቕተልትን ማእሰርትን ከብርሶን ከዳኽሞን ሓደ ሜላኡ ኮይኑ፤ ነቶም እንታይ ደኣ ኣብ ጊዜ ደርጊ ዓበይቲ ዓወታት ክምዝገብ ተኻኢሉ ንዝብሉ ድማ፤ ኢሳያስ እቲ ዝለዓለ ናይ ምዕራብ ሓገዝ ዝቕበለሉ ዝነበረ እውን ጊዜ ደርጊ ኢዩ ነይሩ፤ እቲ ምኽንያት ድማ ነቲ ማርክሳዊ ኢየ ዝብል ስርዓት ካብ ገጽ መሬት ምጥፋእ ድሌት ምዕራባውያን ሃገራት ብምንባሩ ኢዩ። ድሕሪ ናጽነትከ ከመይ ኬድና፧ ብግስ ከይበልና ምስ መንግስቲ ኢትዮጵያ ኮይኑ ናይ ሓባር መንግስቲ ክምስርት ሓሳብ ከምዝነበሮ ሓው መስፍን ሓጎስ ሓቢሩና ኢዩ። ንሱ ከይኣክል ኣብቲ ኣብ ሎንዶን ዝተገብረ ርክብ እውን መለስ ዘናዊ፥ “ህዝቢ ኤሪትራ ንናጽነቱ ኢዩ ተዋጊኡ” ብምባል ንሓሳብ ኢሳያስ ውዱቕ ከምዝገበሮ ሰሚዕና ኢና። እዚ ኣበሃህላዚ ድማ ኢሳያስ ኣብ ልዕሊ ወያነ ዓቢ ጽልእን ቅርሕንትን ኣሕዲሩሉ ኢዩ። ኣብ ውሽጢ ኤሪትራ ንኢሳያስ ዘቃልዕ ነቐፈታትን ምንቅስቓሳትን፤ ከምኡውን ንናይ ዘለኣለም ሕልሙ ከበርዕን ዝኽእል ቅዋም ምንባሩ፤ ኢሳያስ ንኩነታት ብፋሕብትን ንምቕያር ውግእ ባድመ ከፈተ። ንባድመ ውዒላ ሓዲራ፥ ኤሪትራ ምስ ኢትዮጵያ ምስተሓወሰት ትርጉም ክህልዋ ስለዘይኮነ ኢሉ ኣቐዲሙ ብምሕሳቡ ኢዩ ካብ ጀብሃ መንጢሉ ንወያነ ገዲፉሎም ዝነበረ። ሕጂውን ኣብይ ምስ መጸ ንባድመ ክመልሳ ኣይተገደሰን፤ እቲ ምኽንያት ድማ: ባድመ ምስ ኤሪትራ ናብ ኢትይጵያ ከምትኣቱ ስለዝኣምን ኢዩ።

እዚ ሎሚ ዝካየድ ዘሎ ኣብ ልዕሊ ትግራይ ዝወርድ ዘሎ ዘመቻ ድማ፥ ኣቢይ ንስልጣኑ፤ ኢሳያስ ንዕላምኡ፤ ብገለ ሓይልታት ተመሪሖም ወዲኦምዎ ዝመጹ ውዲት ኢዩ። ብዙሕ ትያትሮ ድማ ርኢና። ስርዓት ወያኔ ዝፈጸሞ ዘይብሱል ኣመራርሓን ባህርያትንኳ ነይሩ እንተተባህለ፤ ንትዮጵያ ቅድሚ ሕጂ ተራእዩ ኣብ ዘይፈልጥ ትምህርታውን ቁጠባውን ደረጃ ከምትበጽሕ ጌሩ ጥራይ ዘይኮነስ፤ ኣብ ምሉእ ኣፍሪቃን ዓለምን ንኢትዮጵያ ከም ትኽበር ገሮም ኢዮም። እዚ ምዕብልናዚ ድማ ብዓይኒቶም ኣፍሪቃውያን ዓደግትን ተመራሕትን እንበር፥ ርእሶም ዝኸኣሉ ኣፍረይትን ናይ ዕዳጋታቶም ተወዳደርትን ክኾኑ ዘይወሓጠሎም ኣህጉራውያን ሸነኻት፤ ዘይደልዮን ንካልኦት ኣብነት ክኸውን ዝኽእል ሓደገኛ ጉዕዞ ጌሮም ስለዝርእይዎን፤ ንድሕሪት ክመልስዎ ክፍትኑ ከምዝኾኑን ከምእተዓወቱሉን’ውን ግሁድ ኢዩ።

ብካልእ ሸንኽ ድማ፤ እቲ ዳርጋ ቀሺ ወይ ሸኽ ተመሲሉ ብዛዕባ ፍቕርን ሰላምን እናሰበኸ እዚ ዘይበሃል ኣድናቖት ዝረኸበ ኣቢይ ኣሕመድ፤ ንኢትዮጵያውያን፥ ምስ ኢሳያስ ብምምሽጣር ዝዓበየ ህያብ ከምጽኣሎምን ምስጋናን ስልጣንን ከረጋግጽ፤ ብመምርሒን ተሓባባርነትን ናይ ኢሳያስ መጀመርታ ንህዝቢ ትግራይ ምድቋስ፤ ድሕሪኡ ንኤሪትራ ናብ ኢትዮጵያ ምሕዋስ ንዝብል መደቡ እንሀ ጀሚርዎን የካይዶን ኣሎ። ሰራዊት ኢትዮጵያ ኣብ ከምዚ ድንግርግር ዝበለ ኩነታት ን ኤሪትራ ኣትዩ ንትግራይ ምጥቃዕ ጥራይ ዘይኮነስ፤ ካብ ኤሪትራ ንሃገሩ ይምለስ ዝብል እምነት የብለይን፤ ሓላዋይ ኢሳያስን ብምዃን: ንዝኾነ ተቓዋሚ ከጥፍእን ድማ ህልውንኡ ቀጻሊ ክኸውን ኢዩ።

ሎሚ ህዝቢ ትግራይ እንተተደርዒሙን ተዳኺሙን፤ ጽባሕ ተራና ከምዝኾነ ምስትብሃል ጽቡቕ ኢዩ። መበገሲ ናይዚ ውግእዚውን ንኤሪትራ ንምንብርካኽ ዘቃልል ተባሂሉ ዝተጀመረ ምዃኑ ኢዩ ትርጉም ዝህብ።

ካብዚ ኩሉ ዝተጠቕሰ ብምብጋስ ድማ፥ ሎሚ ንዕንወት ናይ ትግራይ ዝትምነ ኤሪትራዊ፥ ካብ ሕጂ ዜግነቱ ከምዝቐየረ ክርድኦ ይግባእ። እዚ ዘለናሉ ጊዜ፥ ናይ ቅርሕንትን መሰረት ዘይብሉ ትምክሕትን ድርቅና መርገጻትን ጊዜ ኣይኮነን፤ ኣንዊሕካን ኣዕሚቕካን ተስተብህለሉን ትመዝነሉን፥ ንሃገራውን ህዝባውን ጥቕምኻ ዘዋጽእ ምግንዛብን ዝሓትት ኢዩ። ኣብ ምፍፍልላይ ኣውራጃ፤ ኣብ ዝሓለፈ ውባዊ ፍልልያት፤ ኣብ ውድበይ ውድብካ ሃይማኖተይ ሃይማኖትካ ዕንክሊል ዝብል ኩሉ፤ ካብ ልቡ እንተኾይኑ ልቢ የብሉን፤ ኮነ ኢሉ ዝገብሮ እንተኾነ ድማ ጸላኢ ህዝቢ ኤሪትራን ክቡራት ስንኩላቱን ስዉኣቱን ምዃኑ ንኩሉ ኣንባቢ ንጹር ክኸውን ይግባእ። ንመርሕነት ዝጓየ እንተሎ ድማ፤ እታ ዕድል ንሓደ ጥራይ ኢያ`ሞ ዓቕምኻን ብቕዓትካን ፈሊጥካ ንናይ ሓባር ስራሕ ቀዳምነት ሃብ ኢለ ክምዕድ እፈቱ።

ሎሚ ኤሪትራ ዓባይ በት ማእሰርቲ ህዝቢ ኤሪትራ ኢያ ዘላ፤ ምሉእ ህዝቢ እሱር ኢዩ። ተባዕ ዝነበረ ኣብ ፈራሕ ተቐይሩ፤ ኣንበሳ ዝነበረ ደኒኑ፤ በሊሕ ዝነበረ ፈዚዙ ወዘተ፥ ህዝብና እንታይ ወርድዎ ኣብ ኢልካ ዝሕተተሉ እዋን ኢና በጺሕና ዘለና። ሃገርና ክትደክን ፈላጣታን ሰብ ንብረትን ንህያቦም ከይጥቀሙሉ ዝተዓግቱሉን እተባረሩሉን፥ ሰብ ናብ ዕለታዊ ድራሩ ጥራይ ከድህብ እተገደ ደሉን፤ መንእሰያት ትርጉም ዓለም ትርጉም ዘይህቦም ዝኾኑሉን፥ ብዘይካ ንሳዋ ምውሓዝ ናይ መጻኢ ተስፋ ዘይርእዩሉን፤ ከተማታት ዓንየን መልክዓተን ዝተደምሰሰሉን (ዝተረፈኒ ወስኹሉ) ክገብር ዝጸንሐን ዘሎን ንድልየት ናይ ሓደ ባእታ ንክጥዕም ምዃኑ ኩሉ ኤሪትራዊ ሎሚ ዘስተብሃለሉ ይመስል። እዛ እዋን እዚኣ ንህልውና ሃገርና ካብ ዝሓለፈ እዋናት ብዝለዓለ ትፈታተነና ዘላ ስለዝኾነት፤ ሓቢርና ንጽዓረላ፥ ጥቕሚ ሃገርና ንዝሕሉ ኩሉ ኣገባብን መንገድን ብብልሓት ንጠቐም፤ ብዝሒ ዘረባ ዘይኮነስ ተግባር ዝጠልብ እዋን ኢዩ።

ኣብ ገምገም ጥፍኣት ንዘላ ሃገር ብሓባር ነድሕን።

ብዘይምውልዋል ንስለ ህዝብና ክንብል ሓቢርና ንስራሕ።

ዝኽርን ክብርን ንስዉኣትና

ተኸለ መለኪን 29/11 - 2020

Monday, 14 December 2020 15:45

UN Security Council to discuss humanitarian situation in Tigray war today

Written by Martin Plaut

DECEMBER 14, 2020 MARTIN PLAUT ETHIOPIA, NEWS

Some members might inquire about reports of mistreatment of Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia. This issue gained heightened attention on 11 December, when Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, issued a statement saying that the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and its humanitarian partners “have had no access to the four Eritrean refugee camps inside Tigray, putting the safety and survival of the refugees at great risk”. He went on to assert that there had been “an overwhelming number of disturbing reports of Eritrean refugees in Tigray being killed, abducted and forcibly returned to Eritrea” and that “[i]f confirmed, these actions would constitute a major violation of international law”.

Ethiopia (Tigray): Discussion of the humanitarian situation under “any other business”

Source: Security Council Report

Tomorrow (14 December) Security Council members are expected to discuss the humanitarian situation in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia under “any other business”, a standing item in consultations. The meeting was initiated at the request of Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, the US, and the UK. An OCHA representative is expected to brief.

Background

Conflict between the Ethiopian government and the country’s northern Tigray region erupted on 4 November. This followed months of rising tensions between the central government and Tigray. Many analysts have noted the desire of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to strengthen federal control over Ethiopia’s regions, including Tigray, which has chafed at what it views as an assault on its autonomy. Citing concerns about the coronavirus, the federal government postponed Ethiopia’s August general elections; in defiance of this decision, Tigray held its own regional elections in September. In October, Addis Ababa slashed federal support to Tigray, and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) (the main political party in the region) rejected the central government’s appointment of a new general to Tigray to take charge of Ethiopia’s northern command.

In this difficult context, Prime Minister Abiy launched a military campaign against the region, after accusing the TPLF of attacking an Ethiopian National Defense Forces base and attempting to steal artillery and military equipment in Tigray. Thousands of people have reportedly died as a result of the fighting since early November, and the humanitarian situation has continued to worsen. Over 50,000 refugees have fled from Tigray into Sudan, and thousands more have been internally displaced.

In addition to refugee flows, there has been further evidence of the conflict’s international ramifications. On 14 November, the TPLF fired rockets on Asmara, Eritrea, accusing Eritrea of helping the Ethiopian military to stage operations on Tigray. The US also recently accused Eritrea of sending its own troops across the border to support the Ethiopian army in its campaign against Tigray, although Eritrea has denied the allegation.

The AU has thus far led political efforts to resolve the fighting. On 20 November, the AU Chairperson, President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, appointed three high-level enjoys to help facilitate a peaceful resolution to the conflict: Joaquim Chissano (former President of Mozambique), Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (former President of Liberia), and Kgalema Motlanthe (former President of South Africa). These efforts have appeared to gain little traction, with President Abiy reluctant to accept external mediation and defining the conflict as a law enforcement operation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed the UN’s support for the AU’s initiative to resolve the crisis, including in 20 November and 7 December statements attributable to his spokesperson.

Earlier today, following a visit to Ethiopia to meet with Prime Minister Abiy, Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announced that Abiy had agreed to a summit of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to address the Tigray conflict. At time of writing, additional details about a potential summit were unclear.

Security Council Engagement

The Security Council has not engaged actively on the crisis. Although members discussed the conflict under “any other business” on 24 November, the Council has yet to take any concrete action. The 24 November meeting had been proposed by the Council’s EU members and the UK, who called for the meeting after the African members of the Council had withdrawn their initial request for a discussion, maintaining that regional engagement needed more time to take effect and that the high-level AU delegation that planned to visit Abiy had yet to arrive in Addis Ababa. (The AU delegation met with Abiy on 27 November; Abiy reportedly pledged to protect civilians but not to stop the military campaign). During the “any other business” session, members emphasised the importance of de-escalating the conflict, expressed concern about the impact of the fighting on civilians, and underscored their support for regional engagement to resolve the conflict.

Tomorrow’s “any other business” session will depart from the session on 24 November in that a briefer is anticipated and the focus is expected to be primarily on the humanitarian implications of the conflict. Although Abiy announced that the fighting had ended on 28 November, the situation has remained volatile. The OCHA briefer may describe shortages in food, water, fuel, and medical supplies in Tigray. He or she may note that the ICRC-Ethiopian Red Cross Society convoy carrying relief supplies and medicines to Mekelle on 11 December was the first international aid delivery to reach Tigray since the start of the conflict, following weeks of restrictions on international humanitarian access. Abiy has declared that the Ethiopian government is spearheading the humanitarian response in Tigray.

A number of issues are likely to be taken up in the meeting. Some Council members may be interested in OCHA’s views on the prospect of future international aid deliveries to the region. In this regard, they may highlight the importance of permitting unfettered and safe humanitarian access to Tigray. There may be calls for holding accountable those on both sides that have committed human rights violations during the conflict. Concern is also likely to be expressed about the deaths of four aid workers—including three from the Danish Refugee Council and one from the ICRC—during the fighting.

Some members might inquire about reports of mistreatment of Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia. This issue gained heightened attention on 11 December, when Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, issued a statement saying that the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and its humanitarian partners “have had no access to the four Eritrean refugee camps inside Tigray, putting the safety and survival of the refugees at great risk”. He went on to assert that there had been “an overwhelming number of disturbing reports of Eritrean refugees in Tigray being killed, abducted and forcibly returned to Eritrea” and that “[i]f confirmed, these actions would constitute a major violation of international law”.

In general, there appear to be divergent views on how actively engaged the Council should be on this issue. While some members would like the Council to play a more active role, others appear concerned that this could be counter-productive and interfere with regional efforts to resolve the conflict.

“Any other business”—the format of the 24 November meeting and tomorrow’s meeting on Tigray—is one way that members have traditionally kept abreast of developments in situations not on the Council’s agenda. “Any other business” is also generally conducive to discreet discussions of more sensitive matters, as there is no public record of “any other business” topics.

Monday, 14 December 2020 15:42

Warning: Tigray faces a food emergency

Written by Eritrea Hub

DECEMBER 14, 2020 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS

Source: Famine Early Warning System

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) expected in parts of Tigray in 2021 if access constraints persist

A IPC Phase 4 means that the households have large food consumption gaps which are reflected in very high acute malnutrition and excess mortality. It is one below Phase 5 – Famine

December 11, 2020

FIGURE 1

Contribution of PSNP* expressed as a percent of annual food needs by livelihood zone in Tigray

*Cash PSNP was converted into food terms and added to the food distribution, then calculated as a percent of the annual kilocalorie needs. A weighted average was taken across all wealth groups.

Source:

USAID HEA Activity and government of Ethiopia

In November, tensions between the national and regional governments developed into widespread conflict in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia. The conflict has driven large-scale displacement, with populations fleeing to areas not directly under attack, neighboring Afar and Amhara Regions, and Sudan. The movement of goods and people, food assistance delivery, and many economic activities have largely halted. Insecurity in the region is likely to persist in the near term, disrupting access to food and income into 2021. High food assistance needs are expected now through at least the next harvest in late 2021 in eastern and southern areas of Tigray, and among displaced populations in Afar, Amhara, and Sudan. Urgent action is needed to reverse restrictions to movement and activities, to open humanitarian space for all humanitarian actors, and to resume and immediately scale up humanitarian assistance necessary to meet basic food needs and prevent further deterioration in food security.

Since the outbreak of conflict on November 4, fighting was primarily focused along main roadways running west to east in the region, though the full extent of conflict is likely still unknown as telecommunication services remain limited. The government imposed a six-month state of emergency on November 6. Fighting was concentrated in western Tigray, but moved eastward as the month progressed, and continues in localized areas of Tigray, with federal forces taking control of the regional capital Mekele in late November. According to UNHCR, as of December 9, nearly 50,000 people have fled to Sudan. While no official figures are available, reports indicate people have also fled to neighboring Amhara and Afar regions and that many are likely displaced within Tigray.

Poor households in Tigray rely on their own crop production and income earned through agricultural and non-agricultural labor to meet their basic food needs. When the conflict erupted, the main season meher harvest was ongoing. Available information suggests that conflict has been relatively low in rural areas, allowing many rural households to continue harvesting and consuming crops. However, reporting also suggests that some rural households in areas affected by conflict have abandoned or cannot access their fields. Furthermore, given official movement restrictions, fear of moving due to the conflict, and reduced intra- and inter-region trade flows, economic activity is generally reduced. Restricted movement is especially damaging to poor households in the deficit-producing mid- and highland areas who rely heavily on labor migration to surplus areas in the western lowlands. Income from labor migration was already negatively affected in 2020 by the COVID-19 related movement restrictions. In addition, livestock sales, an important income source among middle and better-off households throughout the region, are limited by reduced market functioning. Since this income helps support the local economy, generating demand for local agricultural labor, a reduction in livestock sales has knock-on effects for poorer households. Overall, poor households’ access to income has notably decreased.

At the same time, extremely high food prices are further constraining access to food. Information from those who recently left Tigray suggests the destruction of infrastructure, regional border closures, and fuel shortages have resulted in limited food supplies in markets, putting significant upward pressure on food and non-food prices, which were already above average.

The ongoing conflict has also prevented the delivery of humanitarian food assistance and Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) permanent direct support. More than 300,000 people in Tigray, including internally displaced people (IDP) and refugees, typically receive humanitarian food assistance every six weeks, though it is expected they have not received a distribution since October due to the conflict. An estimated 1 million people in Tigray receive PSNP support, covering up to 50 percent of basic kilocalorie needs among poor and very poor households (Figure 1). While most PSNP beneficiaries receive distributions between February and July, roughly 250,000 permanent direct support beneficiaries, including the elderly and disabled, receive year-round assistance. It is believed that these beneficiaries have not received a distribution since August as the federal government did not transfer cash to the region following the tension due to the regional election. On December 2, the federal government and UN announced a humanitarian corridor was opening to government-controlled areas. Humanitarian assistance has likely reached some areas, as the NDRMC reported on December 8, though this is difficult to confirm. However, PSNP distributions are likely to be limited in the short to medium term as the resumption of deliveries, which require federal government funds, will depend on the implementation support of the regional government.

Localized conflict and some displacement in Tigray are expected to continue into 2021. Economic activity is expected to somewhat improve as the military offensive has largely ended; however, with the anticipated continuation of the state of emergency coupled with damaged infrastructure, some disruption to the movement of people and goods is likely through at least mid-2021.

Food security among displaced, urban, and some poor rural households has notably declined. With the availability of the harvest, particularly in surplus-producing western areas, most poor households are likely meeting their immediate short-term food needs; however, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated in several eastern, central, and southern areas, including some urban and peri-urban areas, of Tigray. Anecdotal reports suggest that IDP and poor households in bordering areas of Amhara and Afar are also having difficulty accessing food and other basic supplies due to limited market activities with Tigray; Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also likely among these populations. It is expected that some direct beneficiaries of PSNP who have not received assistance since August are likely facing wide food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4). FEWS NET currently anticipates that PSNP deliveries are likely to resume by mid-2021 and that humanitarian assistance will be delivered to some areas starting in the coming months. However, in the absence of assistance and PSNP, additional very poor households are likely to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the coming months with the depletion of the harvest, and area-level Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes would be likely in early 2021. Urgent action is needed to enable the immediate scale up of food assistance necessary to meet basic food needs and prevent further deterioration in food security.