Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 55 – 14 January 2021

Thursday, 14 January 2021 13:50 Written by Martin Plaut

Date: 14/01/2021Author: Martin Plaut

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 13 January)

The chief commander of one of the Eritrean divisions fighting in the Eastern front in Tigray has been captured alive by Tigray regional forces.
ENDF states it has killed three members of the leadership of TPLF who held high office in Ethiopia: Seyoum Mesfin, foreign minister of Ethiopia from 1991 until 2010; Abay Tsehaye, former Federal Affairs Minister and Asmelash Woldesellassie, ex-parliamentary chief whip of the Ethiopian Parliament.
The Ethiopian Government is arresting former retired Tigrayan officials and their spouses. Many of those are said to be arrested from their houses in Mekelle. Official reports make it appear as if they were captured in battle. It is reported that this is not true.
It is reported from Eritrea that Sebhat Nega, the retired co-founder of TPLF, was arrested in his house in Mekelle, then taken to the Mai Idaga prison near Dekemhare in Eritrea.
It is understood that Sebhat Nega was not captured in battle and was not captured in hiding, and that such reports are incorrect, but that he was arrested from his home, and brought to Eritrea where he was held until he was handed to the Ethiopian authorities.
Eritrean refugees in Hitsats camp in Tigray are ordered to return to Eritrea and were forced to walk to Sheraro. From Sheraro buses and trucks take them to Eritrea.
The ancient Monastery of Debre Damo in Tigray was bombarded by Eritrean soldiers using heavy artillery. Debre Damo, is the name of a flat-topped mountain, or amba, and a 6th-century monastery in Tigray, Ethiopia. The mountain is a steeply rising plateau about 1000 by 400 m in dimension.
The monasteries’ church artifacts and materials were looted by Eritrean forces.
Middle East Eye (MEE) investigates reports of the destruction of the Al-Nejashi Mosque, possibly the oldest Mosque of Africa and casualties first reported on 18 December by EEPA. The attack on the mosque would have occurred on 26th of November. Recently, pictures of the damage emerged.
According to MEE, a representative of the regional International Association of Muslims in Tigray, Ahmed Siraj, stated several civilians were killed by Eritrean soldiers as they protested the pillaging.
It is believed that artefacts have been stolen from the Al-Nejashi Mosque, including religious manuscripts, books and letters dating as far back as the seventh century.
A shrine holding the remains of followers of the Prophet Muhammad in the Mosque is also damaged.
HRW releases reports that civilians living in western Tigray, especially Humera, were unexpectedly shelled, followed by an invasion of paramilitary troops known as “Liyu Hail” from the Amhara region and ENDF forces, and young members of Amhara youth militia groups “Fano.”
HRW reports that refugees from Humera said that “they witnessed extrajudicial executions by federal forces and their allies during the fighting or after they took over towns.”
HRW found that witnesses said that “some of the victims were suspected TPLF members, fighters, or supporters and retired soldiers. However, businesspeople and farmers were also targeted, as were others whom the soldiers happened to have stopped, including families and children trying to flee.”
This confirms reports received that “Several large artillery bombardments were allegedly carried out in Humera between November 9-11 2020. Witnesses report that shells were launched from Eritrea, devastating residential areas and destroying a hospital. The Ethiopian army and regional Amhara forces also allegedly then took control of Humera, where they killed civilians and looted buildings.”
Arte shows refugees speaking about their ordeal when they fled Mai Kadra, on 9 Nov 2020. The town of Mai Kadra had Tigray and Amhara residents (farmers). The civilians speak of horrific killings, roads covered with dead bodies and bodies shoved in mass graves by tractors, with over 600 people killed. The horrific attack was carried out by Amhara, according to the witnesses interviewed by Arte.
HRW reports that in Mai-Kadra, “a number of refugees reported seeing hundreds of dead bodies which had been shot, stabbed, or hacked with knives, machetes, and axes, including those of ethnic Amharas but also of Tigrayans. Family members from several towns said they saw loved ones killed but could not offer them a proper and dignified burial.”
HRW finds that “People who remained in their homes or went back to their towns after the heavy fighting had subsided said they saw Amhara “special forces” and Fanos, as well as unidentified gunmen, detain those who remained, and loot abandoned and inhabited homes, shops, and hospitals. People said gold, animals, recently harvested produce, as well as goods from electronics shops were stolen. Many expressed concerns and fears about what they may face if they returned home.“
Arte speaks to a soldier of Tigray defense forces who fled from Western Tigray as troops were overwhelmed by the mechanized divisions who entered with tanks. According to Human Rights Watch “Some residents described being caught in the crossfire between federal government and allied and TPLF forces in the farmland on the outskirts of towns as they attempted to flee or hide.”
UN Commissioner for Human Rights, Bachelet, has stated that such killings would be classified as war crimes if “civilians were deliberately killed by a party or parties to the conflict.” She has called for an “immediate, impartial, and thorough investigation into the killings.”

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 13 January)

The war is causing an economic crisis in Ethiopia. The federal Ethiopian government has not paid salaries in many sub cities of Addis Ababa and southern regional states.
Opposition leader Yilkal Getnet has requested the deployment of UN peacekeeping troops in Metekel.
US Senators Chris Murphy, Patrick Leahy and Ben Cardin have sent a letter to Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed stating that “over the last few months, the Ethiopian government has increasingly engaged in a pattern of intimidation against journalists” and demanding for the immediate release of the journalists.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 13 January)

Eritrea has expelled the Ambassador of Egypt, end of December. He travelled to Egypt via an Ethiopian Airlines chartered flight. Eritrea accused the Ambassador of Egypt of working with the TPLF.
Refugee Council USA expresses its concern over “ the conflict’s mounting humanitarian toll. There have been reports of civilians being targeted and killed, including aid workers, and refugees abducted.”

Disclaimer: All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/13/ethiopia-says-former-foreign-minister-killed-by-military

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict/ethiopia-says-ex-foreign-minister-killed-by-military-after-refusing-to-surrender-idUSKBN29I2GB

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/ethiopia-tigray-nejashi-mosque-conflict-damage

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/12/23/interview-uncovering-crimes-committed-ethiopias-tigray-region

https://www.arte.tv/de/videos/101072-000-A/sudan-die-tigray-fliehen-aus-aethiopien

An Appeal from the Catholic Bishop of Adigrat

Wednesday, 13 January 2021 22:53 Written by Martin Plaut

JANUARY 13, 2021 MARTIN PLAUT ETHIOPIA, NEWS

This appeal by the Catholic Bishop of Adigrat highlights how severe the situation is in Tigray.

The Bishop makes no distinction between the people of Tigray and the Eritrean refugees who live in their midst.

We must do all we can to give them our support!

Human Rights Watch Report on Eritrea

Wednesday, 13 January 2021 20:33 Written by Eritrea Hub

JANUARY 13, 2021 ERITREA HUB NEWS

Events of 2020

Two years on from the peace deal with Ethiopia, Eritrea’s leadership has increased its regional and international diplomatic engagement, but without improving the plight of Eritreans through critical human rights reforms.

Eritrea’s government remains one of the world’s most repressive, subjecting its population to widespread forced labor and conscription, imposing restrictions on freedom of expression, opinion, and faith, and restricting independent scrutiny by international monitors.

Eritrea remains a one-man dictatorship under President Isaias Afewerki, with no legislature, no independent civil society organizations or media outlets, and no independent judiciary. Elections have never been held in the country since it gained independence in 1993, and the government has never implemented the 1997 constitution guaranteeing civil rights and limiting executive power.

In response to Covid-19, Eritrean authorities increased pervasive controls and movement restrictions on its population. From March, the government prohibited citizens, except those engaged in “essential developmental and security” tasks, from leaving their homes, unless for procuring food and medical emergencies.

The coastal Danakali region, predominantly inhabited by Afar communities—cross-border pastoralists—was especially affected by border closures. Media reported that the government intercepted camel convoys bringing foodstuffs from Djibouti and Ethiopia, a key food supply for local Afar communities. The government has also confiscated Afari fishing boats, thereby preventing access to food and income.

In September, the government ignored its own restrictions on movement, its ban on public transport, and its school closures, by channeling thousands of school students to the infamous Sawa military camp where all secondary school students must complete their schooling and simultaneously undergo military training.

Positively, Eritrea took part in the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) review. Although a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC), it refused to cooperate with or grant access to the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea and publicly attacked her mandate.

Unlawful, Abusive Detentions

Mass roundups and prolonged arbitrary arrests and detentions without trial or appeal remain common.

Many detainees, including government officials and journalists arrested in 2001 after they questioned Isaias’s leadership, are held incommunicado. In June, a daughter of journalist Dawit Isaak told media he was alive, but without substantiating the assertion. Ciham Ali Abdu, daughter of a former information minister, has been held for seven years since her arrest age 15. Former finance minister and critic of the president, Berhane Abrehe, remains in incommunicado detention since September 2018.

Prisoners often do not know why they are being detained. Relatives are seldom informed of prisoners’ whereabouts, sometimes learning of their fate only when a body is returned.

Authorities hold detainees in inhumane conditions. Facilities are overcrowded and unsanitary, made worse by Covid-19 restrictions that denied many detainees vital food parcels and sanitary products their families would have provided. For months, the government ignored calls by international rights actors to release those unlawfully detained to decongest detention facilities in response to Covid-19.

Eritrea has long criminalized consensual homosexual conduct; the 2015 penal code mandates imprisonment for five to seven years.

Indefinite Military Conscription and Forced Labor

The government took no steps to reform the country’s national service system. It continued to conscript Eritreans, most men and unmarried women, indefinitely into military or civil service for low pay and with no say in their profession or work location. Conscripts are often subjected to inhuman and degrading punishment, including torture, without recourse. Conscientious objection is not recognized; it is punished. Discharge from national service is arbitrary and procedures opaque.

For secondary students, some under 18, conscription begins at Sawa. Students are under military command, are subjected to harsh military punishments and discipline, and female students have reported sexual harassment and exploitation. Dormitories are crowded and health facilities very limited.

The government continued to conscript youth, some perceived as seeking to evade conscription during mass round-ups.

No conscripts, including students, were released from Sawa during 2020, despite the risk of exposure to Covid-19. And, despite calls for reforms, including the separation of schooling from compulsory military training, in September the government again bused students to Sawa, forcibly channeling thousands of young people into national service.

The government assigns conscripts to military duties but many are assigned to civil service jobs or work on agricultural or construction projects. In February, the Supreme Court of Canada held that the Canadian mining company, Nevsun, accused of using conscript forced labor at its Bisha mine could be sued in Canada for human rights abuses in Eritrea. In October, the parties announced they had agreed to a settlement in the case but the terms remained confidential.

The government continued to rely on poorly trained national service teachers, which affects quality of primary and secondary education, and teacher retention. Conscripted teachers have no say about where they will be assigned, the subjects they will teach, or the length of their assignment.

Some conscript pay was increased but it remains inadequate to support a family.

Freedom of Religion

The government “recognized” only four religious denominations: Sunni Islam, Eritrean Orthodox, Roman Catholicism, and Evangelical (Lutheran) churches.

Eritreans affiliated with “unrecognized” faiths have faced imprisonment and have often been forced to renounce their religion, including by being tortured. In September and October, two nongovernmental organizations reported the release of as many as 69 “non-recognized” Christians, some detained for over a decade—possibly due to fears of Covid-19 infection—on condition they signed property deeds to hold them liable for future behavior. But the government still arrested people because of religious practices, including during wedding celebrations.

None of the 52 Jehovah’s Witnesses long incarcerated in Mai Serwa have been released, including three jailed since 1994 because of their conscientious objections to military service.

Even “recognized” religions faced restrictions. A Catholic Church delegation led by the archbishop of Addis Ababa was refused entry at the Asmara airport and deported. The Orthodox patriarch deposed by the government in 2007 and expelled from the church in 2019 because of “heresy” remained under house arrest.

In November 2019, 21 Muslims were reportedly arrested in Mendafera and Adi Quala, including a local imam; the whereabouts of many remains unknown. Media reported that peaceful demonstrators arrested in 2017 and early 2018 for protesting the government takeover of Al Diaa Islamic school were released in August; officials of the school remain incarcerated.

In January, Finn Church Aid, one of the very few nongovernmental organizations based in Eritrea, ended its activities after the government suddenly stopped its teacher training project, which aimed to recruit teachers outside the national service system.

Refugees

Eritrea’s ongoing rights crisis continues to drive thousands of Eritreans into exile, with many children and youth escaping conscription.

In the first three months of 2020, 9,436 Eritreans fled to Ethiopia alone, a third of whom were children. In January, the Ethiopian government unofficially changed its asylum policy, which for years granted all Eritrean asylum seekers refugee status as a group, only registering some categories of new arrivals at the Eritrea border, excluding others, notably unaccompanied children.

Among those fleeing Eritrea were four football players participating in a tournament in Uganda in November 2019. Some footballers defected at tournaments in 2015 and 2009.

Israeli authorities continued to systematically deny the asylum claims of the roughly 32,000 Eritrean and Sudanese asylum seekers in the country. However, in April, Israel’s Supreme Court struck down a law that permitted the confiscation of a portion of their salaries.

Key International Actors

More than two years after the Eritrea and Ethiopia declared peace, their border remains demarcated and Ethiopia has not withdrawn from Badme, the Eritrean village that triggered the 1998 war. In 2019, Eritrea unilaterally closed the border. In March 2020, Ethiopia shut the border because of pandemic-related fears.

After having been sued by a European human rights organization and criticized by the European Parliament for funding the procurement of material for the construction of a road in Eritrea that employs conscript forced labor, the European Union announced it would fund “no more roads.” It also announced it would be conducting a review of its “dual-track” approach in Eritrea, which de-linked political and development policy with its development arm focused on job creation activities, and its political arm reportedly raising human rights issues. In contrast, a subsidiary of a state-owned Chinese company remains involved in building a 134-kilometer road.

In 2013, Human Rights Watch documented how a state-owned construction company, which regularly used forced conscript workers built part of the Bisha mine’s infrastructure.

Two mining companies that provide 20 percent of the country’s income are 60 percent owned by Chinese firms, and 40 percent by the government.

The development of a massive 50 percent Australian company-owned potash development project, the Colluli potash project in the Danakali region, moved ahead. In May, the special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Eritrea reported allegations that the military had been clearing local Afar communities off their land around Colluli since 2017.

The Global Partnership for Education, a global education donor, awarded a US$17.2 million grant to Eritrea, despite ongoing human rights abuses in the country’s education sector.

Ethiopia’s worsening crisis threatens regional, Mideast security

Wednesday, 13 January 2021 20:31 Written by Al-monitor

JANUARY 13, 2021 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS

“Ethiopia’s fragmentation could portend displacement on a scale not seen in modern times.”

Source: Al-Monitor

Ethiopia’s worsening crisis threatens regional, Mideast security

With the Horn of Africa increasingly becoming an integral part of the Middle East’s security landscape, the fallout from Ethiopia’s current crisis will have a significant impact on states of the region.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (C-L) meets with members of Sudan’s ruling military council after his arrival at Khartoum International Airport, Sudan, June 7, 2019. Photo by Ashraf Shazly/AFP via Getty Images.

Payton Knopf

Jeffrey Feltman

Jan 12, 2021

The Gulf Arabs recognize a strategic reality that has eluded the stove-piped US foreign and security policy bureaucracy for too long: The Horn of Africa is an integral part of the Middle East’s security landscape, and increasingly so. No country demonstrates this more clearly than Ethiopia. That country’s escalating internal crises pose an increasingly grave threat not only to the country’s citizens but to international peace and security and to the interests of the United States and its partners in the Middle East, principally Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

As a recent bipartisan study group convened by the US Institute of Peace (USIP) concluded, developments in the Horn of Africa are not only shaped by the states of the Middle East “but also have a direct impact on [these states’] political, economic, and security environments.” Ethiopia’s internal and external borders are being changed violently, and the centrifugal forces of nationalism that now dominate Ethiopian politics are indicative of the weakness of the central state, not the strength of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed or the federal government. These intrastate fissures are undermining the country’s territorial integrity and morphing into interstate conflicts involving, to date, Eritrea and Sudan.

The armed confrontation that erupted Nov. 3 between the federal government and the regional government in Tigray state precipitated what Abiy characterized as a “domestic law enforcement operation.” The involvement of Eritrean combat forces, however, as well as the federal government’s use of airstrikes, mechanized ground units and ethnic militias undermines the credibility of that characterization. Similarly, assertions that the operation has succeeded in stabilizing Tigray is belied by the persistent violence in the region; a worsening humanitarian emergency; the government’s unwillingness to allow adequate access for a humanitarian response; and reports of severe human rights abuses, including of Eritrean refugees in Tigray being killed or forcibly returned to Eritrea.

The war in Tigray is symptomatic of a national political crisis in Ethiopia, which preceded Nov. 3 but has been exacerbated by the nationalist rivalries that have been unleashed since then. Much of western Tigray may now be occupied by Amhara regional state forces, and a border war has erupted between Amhara militias and the Sudanese military. Ethnically motivated killings of Amhara, Oromo and others in Benishangul-Gumuz regional state have precipitated the intervention of Amhara security forces, an unprecedented military deployment by one of Ethiopia’s states into another. In addition, the federal government has been engaged in an intensifying campaign against insurgents in Oromia regional state for months. While each of these conflicts involve historic and complex claims over territory, resources, identity and political representation, the pursuit of those claims by force of arms has set the country on a trajectory toward fragmentation.

The fallout for the states of the Middle East is significant.

First, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both made considerable political and economic investments in the leadership in Addis Ababa, Cairo and Khartoum, investments that will be undermined by bourgeoning conflict among the three. Egyptian-Ethiopian relations have long been strained by the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and Ethiopian-Sudanese relations have become increasingly toxic due not only to the GERD but to the border conflict. The recent spike in violence in Benishangul-Gumuz, where the dam is located, could also pose a threat to the control and function of the dam itself. The Nile is an emotive and sensitive issue in Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, and the crisis facing Abiy’s government makes any realistic compromise even more difficult.

Second, Ethiopia’s fragmentation could portend displacement on a scale not seen in modern times. In 2018-19, approximately 300,000 people — the vast majority of whom were Ethiopian and Eritrean — fled the Horn of Africa for Yemen, in spite of that country’s civil war. As the USIP senior study group report warned, the breakdown of Ethiopia — a country of over 110 million people — would “result in a refugee crisis that could easily dwarf that figure.” Over 56,000 refugees have already fled from Tigray into Sudan since November. Large-scale refugee outflows could destabilize Sudan’s delicate transition, and the consequences of state collapse in Ethiopia would also certainly extend across the Red Sea.

Third, calls for the secession of one or more of Ethiopia’s states are gaining steam, which would put additional strain on the already fraying state system in the Middle East, wracked as it is by the ongoing wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen. Somewhat unique among world regions, the Horn of Africa has several recent experiences with secession — Eritrea from Ethiopia in 1993, South Sudan from Sudan in 2011 and the self-declared independence of Somaliland from Somalia in 2001. The prospects and ramifications of further changes to the regional order should not be underestimated.

Fourth, the risk of radicalization is real should extremist groups exploit the political and security crises inside Ethiopia, particularly if Abiy and his supporters continue to reject dialogue as a means of channeling political grievance. For example, al-Shabab, the Islamic State or al-Qaeda could play for advantage inside Ethiopia’s Somali region or among disaffected and disenfranchised Muslim communities in Oromia and elsewhere.

Brute force is no more likely to be successful in Ethiopia than it has been in Syria in preserving the integrity of the state or in mitigating threats to its neighbors or to the states of the Middle East. Nor can elections that Abiy has announced for June be credible, free or fair in the current political and security climate and therefore able to reconcile the competing visions for the country’s future. The political transitions that have unfolded in Ethiopia and Sudan in the last two years in fact illustrate that the restive and youthful body politics of the Horn of Africa are too diverse, pluralistic and eager for political change for authoritarian repression to result in stability.

Ethiopia’s recent history provides a sobering precedent. In 2015-16, large-scale protests against Ethiopia’s federal government, which was then dominated by Tigray’s ruling party, was met by a military crackdown that both failed to quell the unrest and led to expanding violence. The widening political and security catastrophe only abated with the resignation of former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, the promise of a new political dispensation heralded by Abiy’s accession to the premiership and his articulation of a reform agenda that included a loosening of restrictions on civic space and the prospect of a more inclusive political discourse.

Similarly, when a junta deposed Omar al-Bashir following months of nationwide protests in Sudan, there were those within the security services and among their supporters abroad who argued that stability could be achieved through military rule. This proved elusive, however, amid the massacre of protesters at a sit-in in Khartoum and continued mass demonstrations demanding civilian rule. Following talks between the junta and the umbrella group representing the protesters, an agreement was reached to form a transitional government based on a cohabitation arrangement between a civilian-led Cabinet and a council chaired by the military until elections in 2022 — an agreement due, in part, to diplomatic coordination between the United States and the Gulf. While fragile, this negotiated arrangement has so far averted fears of a slide into civil war akin to that of Libya, and Sudan is now a more responsible member of the international community than it has been at any time in the last three decades.

The Gulf states’ policies toward the Horn of Africa are undoubtedly rooted in their own strategic and political calculations. They understand that the two sides of the Red Sea comprise an integrated region that transcends the geographic distinctions between Africa and the Middle East. The close bilateral relationships that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have cultivated with Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, alongside Abu Dhabi’s historic ties with Asmara, can be strong assets in stabilizing the Horn of Africa in the long term. The long-awaited reconciliation among the Gulf Cooperation Council countries could also alleviate competitive pressures in Somalia, where Qatar has supported the federal government and the UAE has backed the federal member states.

US-Gulf coordination is needed most urgently, however, in the case of Ethiopia. The Gulf states’ explicit or implicit support for Abiy’s shortsighted approach or for Eritrean military intervention not only risks implicating the Gulf in the humanitarian emergency in Tigray but damaging their own strategic interests as the Ethiopian state deteriorates. While Abiy and the federal government continue to prejudice military action over dialogue — not just with Tigrayan leaders but across the political spectrum — there is an urgent need for a process that provides an opportunity to build a new national consensus in Ethiopia, including an understanding of the electoral calendar. The United States and its Gulf partners must cooperate in promoting and supporting such an effort.

Eritrean special forces in Addis

Monday, 11 January 2021 11:44 Written by Martin Plaut

JANUARY 10, 2021 MARTIN PLAUT ETHIOPIA, NEWS

Sources in Addis Ababa report that Eritrean special forces are operating in and around the city. Two groups – each as many as 100 strong – are reported to be in the capital. A third – smaller group – is said to be providing some close protection for PM Abiy.

The role of the two forces is said to be to monitor and act against the substantial Eritrean refugee presence in the capital. They are close to the military airport, allowing swift and easy transport back to Eritrea for those who are captured, or else to the Tigrayan frontline.

Some of the Eritrean refugees are long-term residents in Addis. Others were among the 96,000 who were in refugees in camps in Tigray, who fled to the capital after the camps were attacked by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces.

The suggestion that Eritrean forces are operating in Addis Ababa is not as far-fetched as it sounds. Eritreans have lived in the city since the time of the Empire and form a strong community. Members of the Eritrean opposition in Addis have expressed concern about their presence since 2018.

Eritrean government agents are present in every Eritrean diaspora community around the world, and Ethiopia is no exception. They work directly to President Isaias and are controlled by his closest associates.

In western capitals they do little more than monitor and at times harass opposition groups and extract taxation for the Eritrean government. In neighbouring countries – like Sudan (North and South) and Kenya – they are have indulged in kidnapping and murder.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 50 – 09 January 2021

Saturday, 09 January 2021 20:51 Written by Martin Plaut

Date: 09/01/2021Author: Martin Plaut Comments

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

The ENDF has announced that next to the nine officials that it captured, they have also killed four other Tigrayan officials. The officials killed are the TPLF spokesman, the former head of the Tigray finance bureau, and two other core members. The ENDF did not detail how the four men were killed.
The ENDF reinforcements that were seen moving towards Mekelle at the beginning of the week have reached Alamata. The force consists of 8 tanks, 20 buses, and 5 heavy trucks.
Heavy gunfire has been reported in Mekelle and its outskirts. Heavy artillery bombing was reported in Wukro, North of Mekelle.
Report that Maryam Tsiyon Church has been attacked (local people believe with the aim to take the Ark of Covenant to Addis Ababa). Hundreds of people hiding in the Maryam Tsiyon Church were brought out and shot on the square in front. The number of people killed is reported as 750.
Satellite images have detected a fire in Baeker, Humera. Fighting has been reported in that area.
Reported in social media that the Sudanese army would have evidence of participation of Eritrean troops in the war between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed border area, Al-Fashqa.
Reported that Eritrean troops are currently in all administrative zones in Tigray, except the Southern zone. This includes: Tekeze area, Adigoshu, Maywoini (Geyts), Fresalem (Edris), Adebay, Ousman, Jebel, Humera, Rawyan, Bereket (Western); Shire, Endebagina, Selekleka, Adihageray, Adinebried, Sheraro, Semema (North Western); Wukro Maray, Aksum, Adwa, Rama, Egela, Zana (Central); Adigrat, Edaga Hamus, Wukro, Hawzen (Eastern).
Extreme looting reported in the Gheralta area, and Hawzen has been seriously damaged (‘destroyed’).
Another list of names of civilian victims in the districts of Gheralta and Enderta (Tigray) has emerged. Reportedly, the victims were killed by Eritrean troops. All the names on the list are of men.
Reported that Eritrean soldiers use Ethiopian military uniforms as disguise but local people recognise them easily as they speak Tigrigna with an Eritrean accent. Mostly, especially in Western Tigray, the Eritrean troops are wearing the uniforms of the Eritrean army, according to reports.
A second humanitarian worker from Dutch humanitarian NGO ZOA has also been killed in the Hitsats refugee camp, where heavy fighting is reported.
According to the UN OCHA fighting in Tigray continues, among other locations, in the Mekelle Periphery, Shire, and Shiraro. The fighting has stopped the deployment of some of its missions.
Unconfirmed: Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF, was arrested in a remote valley, together with defected officers from the Northern Command. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

The Vice-Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, General M.H. Dugalo (‘Hemiti’ or ‘Hamediti’) met with Eritrean President Isaias in Asmara on Friday. The visit followed accusations that Eritrea is involved in the war on the Ethiopia-Sudan border. The visit was reported as a failure.
President Ramaphosa of South Africa has said that the AU appointed Special Envoys on Tigray will visit the Tigray area soon.
President Kiir of South Sudan has called on the Sudanese government to reach a settled negotiation with Ethiopia. He made the comments following a meeting with al-Din Kabbashi, a member of the Sovereign Council, and Omer Gamar Eldin, the acting Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 08 January)

The Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect is urging states with significant military ties to Ethiopia, to withhold military assistance until all war crimes and human rights violations have been investigated, and their perpetrators held accountable.
A demonstration has taken place in The Hague, the Netherlands, organised by Tigray and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding that Eritrean troops leave Tigray immediately.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 08 January)

UN OCHA states in a report that the situation in Tigray remains volatile. While, it believes that the situation has been improving, access to food, water, and medical supplies remains limited. The report has identified that looting of humanitarian supplies and equipment continues in some areas, including Kuiha and Lachi.
The UN OCHA report identifies that 4.5 million people needing emergency assistance, of which 2.2 million IDPs. However only 77 thousand people in Mekelle and 25 thousand in Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps have received food support from the UN and its partners.
UN OCHA reports that it still does not have access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps. Bureaucratic constraints and lack of security has made it more difficult to access many areas of Tigray.
Sources disagree with UN OCHA’s assessment that things are going back to normal in Mekelle, Alamata, and Mehoni. Fighting has still been taking place in the area, and people are being prevented from leaving. Moreover, a critical lack of many supplies still exists in the area.
Demtsi Woyane, DW, a TPLF aligned broadcast, has released further footage of a heavily looted buildings of Mekelle University. Multiple departments have been completely emptied.
Since mid-November the accounts of EFFORT, the umbrella to which many companies in Tigray belong, have been frozen and reports show that its huge assets are now being ‘redistributed’ in Ethiopia.

Refugee Situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

Ethiopian refugees in Sudan have told The World on their experiences in the conflict. A witness recounts how on his flight to Sudan he Ethiopian Federal Troops were accompanied by Eritrean soldiers. They proceeded to shoot his son twice and left him to die.

Disclaimer: All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-01-05/sudan-ethiopian-refugees-tell-their-stories

https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-tigray-region-humanitarian-update-situation-report-6-january-2021

https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/eritrea-in-the-tigray-war-what-we-know-and-why-it-might-backfire/

https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/finance-and-policy/tigray-conflict-could-delay-grand-renaissance-dam-negotiations/ https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/atrocity-alert-no-234-ethiopia-china-and-niger/

Sudan Situation Report, 7 Jan 2020

Thursday, 07 January 2021 22:48 Written by reliefweb.int

Situation Report Source

OCHA

Posted 7 Jan 2021 Originally published 7 Jan 2021 Origin View original

HIGHLIGHTS

UNHCR and COR have registered over 56,000 Ethiopian refugees, relocation of refugees to new site Tunaydbah starts.
About US$40 million has been pledged to UNHCR for the regional response to refugees from Tigray - 37 per cent of the requirements in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.
Despite the ongoing harvest, sorghum and millet prices atypically increased between October and December across most main production and consumption markets - FEWS NET.
In urban centres, poor families are likely to have below-average food access through May 2021 due to the extremely high food prices limiting household purchasing power – FEWS NET.
Humanitarians assisted 8.8 million people across Sudan between January and September 2020 - HRP Quarter 3 Monitoring Report.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

New site starts receiving Ethiopian refugees from Tigray

Key figures:

56,548 refugees registered (6 January, UNHCR)
23,177 refugees relocated from Hamdayet and Abdrafi and Village 8 to Um Raquba and Tunaydbah refugee camps
$157 million needed to respond to the urgent needs of up to 115,000 refugees and 22,000 host communities in Sudan and Djibouti up to June 2021. So far, $40 million has been pledged

Situation

Since 9 November, Ethiopian asylum seekers have been arriving in eastern Sudan, fleeing a military escalation in the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. Refugees are arriving in three locations along the border with Ethiopia in eastern Sudan,
Hamdayet in Kassala State, Ludgi and Abderafi in Gedaref State and to a lesser extent into Wad Al Mahi locality in Blue Nile State. Refugees arrive exhausted from their long trek, with few belongings and need assistance.
The Government of Sudan has kept its borders open to the refugee and hosting communities are supporting and sharing their resources with the new refugee arrivals. UNHCR and the Government’s Commission for Refugees (COR) are taking the lead on preparedness and response.

Response

UNHCR continues to register new refugee arrivals at the Sudanese-Ethiopian border. Some 800 people crossed from Ethiopia’s Tigray region into eastern Sudan in just the first few days of the new year. Since early November, more than 56,000 Ethiopian refugees have fled to neighbouring Sudan.
Latest arrivals tell of being caught in the conflict and being victims of various armed groups, facing perilous situations including looting of their houses, forceful recruitment of men and boys, sexual violence against women and girls.
Refugees are arriving with little more than the clothes on their backs, fatigued and in weak conditions after sometimes days of travel. More than 30 per cent of them are estimated to be under 18 and 5 per cent over 60 years old.
In support of the government-led response in Sudan, UNHCR and Sudan’s Commission for Refugees (COR) continue to relocate the refugees from the arrival locations at the border to the designated refugee camps, further inland in Sudan’s Gedaref State.
With the Um Rakuba refugee camp approaching its full capacity, UNHCR and its partners are striving to swiftly relocate refugees from reception sites at the border to a second, newly opened refugee camp, Tunaydbah, in order to keep refugees safe and offer them better living conditions.
The new site is located some 136km from Gedaref town. As of 6 January, 2,605 refugees were relocated to Tunaydbah camp, according to the latest Ethiopia Situation - Daily New Arrivals Update from UNHCR Sudan. Hamdayet and Village 8 reception sites are overcrowded, and their close location to the border putting the safety and security of refugees increasingly at risk.
Upon arrival to Tunaydbah, hot meals are being provided and 1,000 tents, aimed at sheltering up to 5,000 people, have so far been set up by partners. More tents are being pitched as the relocation is set to progress in the coming days and weeks.
UNHCR, COR, and partners are scaling up their response to meet the needs of the increasing refugee population in all locations. Currently, more than 20 humanitarian partners are on the ground in Um Rakuba and another six are starting their activities in Tunaydbah to assist and engage the refugee and host community with shelter, health, food and nutrition services.
Once more, the Government of Sudan is generously keeping its border open to refugees, but additional support is needed to complement the authorities’ response. In particular, it is critical to further improve water and sanitation conditions in the refugee camps and reception areas, as well as to ramp up COVID-19 prevention measures, including isolation facilities. Additional funding is also required to sustain shelter projects and improve the living conditions of refugees in the camps, especially in anticipation of the next rainy season expected to start in May.
On 22 December, UNHCR and partners launched the Regional Refugee Preparedness and Response Plan for the Ethiopia Situation (Tigray). The plan covers the period from November 2020 through to June 2021 and foresees to reach up to 115,000 refugees and 22,000 host communities in Sudan and Djibouti.
As at the end of 2020, US$40 million has been pledged to UNHCR for the regional response to the emergency in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which covers only 37 per cent of the financial requirements in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.
For more details on response and gaps please visit the UNHCR Sudan refugee situation operational portal.

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: To learn more about OCHA's activities, please visit https://www.unocha.org/.

Over 2 million people displaced by conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – local official

Wednesday, 06 January 2021 22:38 Written by Eritrea Hub

JANUARY 6, 2021 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS

Source: Reuters

NAIROBI (Reuters) – About 2.2 million people have been displaced within Ethiopia’s Tigray region since fighting erupted there in November with about half fleeing after their homes were burned down, a local government official said.

Gebremeskel Kassa, a senior official in the interim administration in Tigray appointed by the federal government, made the comments in an interview broadcast by state-run ETV’s Tigriniya language channel late on Tuesday.

The figure given by the official was more than double a previous estimate for the number of people displaced of 950,000, which included 50,000 who had fled to neighbouring countries.

Ethiopia’s federal government restricted access to Tigray after fighting began on Nov. 4 between its troops and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a political party that was governing the province. The government declared victory in late November though the TPLF has vowed to fight on.

The conflict in Tigray has called into question whether Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, can hold together fractious ethnic groups in the country.

An official from Ethiopia’s National Disaster Risk Management Commission told Reuters on Wednesday that the figures cited by the administrator in Tigray were not official.

The commission’s Mitiku Kassa said 110,000 people were displaced within Tigray and 1.8 million were in need of assessment, though he said the actual number of displaced was likely to be far higher than its current tally.

A U.N. refugee agency official also said on Tuesday that Ethiopians were still crossing into neighbouring Sudan from Tigray.

“Some 800 people crossed from Ethiopia’s Tigray region into eastern Sudan in just the first few days of the new year,” spokesman Andrej Mahecic told reporters in Geneva.

A spokeswoman for Abiy’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report that refugees were continuing to cross into Sudan.

More than 56,000 people have now crossed into Sudan from Tigray since the conflict started, according to the U.N. refugee agency’s latest data

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 46 – 5 January 2021

Tuesday, 05 January 2021 12:09 Written by Martin Plaut

Date: 05/01/2021Author: Martin Plaut0 Comments

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

Clashes between Ethiopia and Sudan ended last week, after the Ethiopian army withdrew from the border.
More sources are saying that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) is retreating from rural areas in Tigray towards the capital Mekelle. This corroborates earlier sources.
Fighting continues to take place around Mekelle. Shelling has been observed near Hagere Selam, 50 kilometers from the regional capital.
Civilians are afraid of ENDF soldiers as they are said to take revenge on civilians after losing a battle.
Mechanised infantry of the ENDF is being moved to Tigray, and is heading to Mekelle.
Satellite pictures show that many fields surrounding the ENDF Northern Command HQ have been burned. In total 12 ha of land has been set on fire.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

The negotiations on the GERD dam between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have collapsed after Sudan did not attend. Sudan wants to give a greater role to AU experts and observers to facilitate negotiations and reconcile opinions. The EU, US, and AU are observing the talks.
A Sudanese radio station has reported that Amhara militias kidnapped and killed herders in Sudan. A source told the radio that “the incident is just part of a series of killings and kidnappings carried out by Ethiopian shifta gangs, supported by Ethiopian government forces.”
The Sudanese government has opened a new refugee camp for Tigrayan refugees. This new camp, in Gedaref state, has a capacity of 30 thousand. 500 refugees are being transferred every day.
An outbreak of coronavirus in one of the refugee camps has slowed down the transfer of refugees to the new camp.
Egypt and Sudan have increased cooperation to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood. It includes training in the tolerance of Islam, promoting anti extremist discourse, and a joint missionary convoy.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

FEWSNET, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, released its outlook for the coming months (up to May 2021), predicting large food insecurity across Ethiopia. Half the territory will be in the stress or crisis phase. Current and programmed international humanitarian aid are already included in the model.
In Tigray, food security will likely remain at crisis levels until May.
Swarms of locusts have caused large scale damages between October and December. Up to 60% of crops were lost as a result. Many eggs are now hatching in the Somali region. They will remain a threat in the coming months.
FEWSNET predicts below average rainfall in most regions. This will likely result in smaller crop yields and have a negative impact on food security. Low rainfall also encourages locust swarm formation.
The Amhara Chief Commissioner of Police, Abere Adamu, has given a speech on the involvement of Amhara forces in the conflict with Tigray. According to him, Amhara special forces played an important role in positioning ENDF forces prior to the conflict. The President of Amhara was allegedly also aware that a conflict was going to take place.
Amhara continued playing an important role in coordinating and guiding ENDF forces, he stated.
The Amhara Commissioner also said that “deployment of forces had taken place in our borders from east to west. The war started that night, after we have already completed our preparations” implying that the involvement of the Amhara special forces had been prepared and was well on the way before the start of military operations on 4 November 2020.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

A preliminary report by the interim Tigray administration has been released on the damages of the conflict in the region. According to their assessment 4.5 million people need humanitarian assistance. Many houses have been completely destroyed, and 2.2 million people have been internally displaced (IDPs). Half of these IDPs come from Western Tigray.
The status of 78% of the health facilities in Tigray is unknown. Many of the hospitals have been potentially destroyed or pillaged.
At the start of the conflict Tigray counted 40 hospitals and 296 ambulances. The report assesses that only 31 ambulances, in four hospitals, remain. The remaining ambulances were stolen or destroyed.
The University of Mekelle has at least partially been looted. Pictures show that the offices of the College of Veterinary Medicine have been destroyed.
A delegation from Mekelle University is reportedly in Addis Ababa negotiating the future of the university. Discussions are taking place about the functioning of the university and the take over of Adigrat University students and staff. Future international partnerships are also being discussed.
Many people in Mekelle fear leaving their houses. They fear being forcefully conscripted into the army.
Checkpoints have been set up in Tigray, complicating movement in the area.
A source has said that 150 civilians have been killed by Eritrean soldiers near Nebelet town. This would include 4 muslims guarding the local mosque (at Adi Argudi).

International Situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

The British minister for Africa, James Duddridge, has said that the UK government is deeply worried about the situation in Tigray and the wider region. The British government continues to raise the importance of the respect for human rights with the Ethiopian government. The UK also works with other regional actors to find a peaceful solution.

Disclaimer: All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/eastern-sudan-herder-killed-by-ethiopian-militia

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/egypt-sudan-train-imam-religious-muslim-brotherhood.html https://addisstandard.com/news-analysis-amhara-region-police-chief-reveals-how-regions-police-force-guided-federal-steel-clad-mechanized-forces-to-join-war-in-tigray/

In a letter from the Africa Minister, James Duddridge MP he says “We are deeply worried about the risks the conflict poses to civilian lives…. Access to Tigray remains restricted”

https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/desert-locust-bulletin-507-4-january-2020