JULY 3, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

Ex-members of Congress lobby for new Addis-approved Ethiopian diaspora group

Source: Foreign Policy

AEPAChttps://i1.wp.com/eritreahub.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Screenshot-2021-07-03-at-08.31.55.png?resize=300%2C109&ssl=1 300w" sizes="(max-width: 462px) 100vw, 462px" data-recalc-dims="1" style="box-sizing: inherit; border: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto; float: left; margin-right: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 1em;">The firm has registered four lobbyists on its account with the Pennsylvania-based American Ethiopia Public Affairs Committee (AEPAC), including former Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) and former Rep. Joe Garcia (D-Fla.). Rounding out the lobbying team are Deirdre Stach and Jamiyl Peters, a former aide to Rep. Donald Payne (D-N.J.).

“AEPAC was established in March 2021 in response to deteriorating US-Ethiopia political relations caused by [the] lack of recognition among some US officials and legislatures of the strong strategic partnership between United States and Ethiopia,” the group says on its web site. “AEPAC works to maintain and enhance bilateral relations by providing balanced and credible information. AEPAC encourages both sides to overcome short-term issues and pursue a strategic partnership that will serve the long-term mutual interest of the two nations.”

Mercury will lobby on “strengthening the organization’s reputation and identifying opportunities to further diaspora’s role in US civic society,” according to its lobbying registration, which was effective June 1. Mercury also represents the governments of Uganda and Zimbabwe as well as the transitional Government of National Unity in Libya.

AEPAC is led by a trio of Ethiopian-American businessmen: Executive Chairman Mesfin Tegenu, the CEO of drug pricing company RxParadigm in Delaware; Secretary Youm Abiy Fesseha, the president of Pennsylvania-based USA Pharma Products; and Treasurer Tilahun Degefu, president of Allied Parking Services in Philadelphia. The group says its funding comes from donor contributions.

The association insists that it is an independent organization “not affiliated with the Ethiopian Government or any political party” but instead represents “pro-Ethiopian American citizens, legal residents and American friends of Ethiopia with different backgrounds, religions and political affiliations with a shared goal of strengthening and expanding the U.S.-Ethiopia relationship.” Its launch however was announced on April 4 on the Ethiopian Embassy’s web site by Ambassador to the US Fitsum Arega, who thanked Ethiopian-Americans for “making the initiative to set up the committee, and their related supports.”

The lobbying push comes as both Congress and the Biden administration have continued to press Addis Ababa to end the fighting in the northern region of Tigray. This week the Ethiopian government announced a unilateral cease-fire after rejecting US calls for a truce when Biden dispatched his ally Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) to the region in March.

Meanwhile the House Foreign Affairs Committee is considering a resolution from Africa subcommittee chairwoman Karen Bass (D-Calif.) denouncing human rights abuses by all sides in Ethiopia. A similar bill easily cleared the Senate in April.

AEPAC is only the latest Ethiopian-American group to join a crowded diaspora advocacy field whose divisions mirror those in the multi-ethnic country. While the Denver-based Ethiopian American Civic Council (EACC) has been taking Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed‘s side the conflict, US groups representing the Amharas, Oromos and Tigrayans have all been lobbying Washington in recent month (only the Amhara Association of America is still registered to do so).

The Ethiopian government for its part is represented by Holland & Knight, which signed a six-month, 45,000-a-month contract with the Ethiopian Ministry of Peace in March. The Ethiopian Embassy in Washington for its part declined to renew its own $35,000-a-month lobbying contract with Venable following the end of its three-month term on April 30.

Saturday, 03 July 2021 23:00

Dimtsi Harnnet Sweden 03.07.2021

Written by

Source: BBC Amharic Service

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Demeke Mekonnen stated that the federal government plans to resolve the crisis in Tigray through dialogue.

The Minister briefed members of the diplomatic community based in Addis Ababa on the current situation in Tigray and is currently holding a closed-door meeting.

Demeke said the Ethiopian government plans to hold talks with legally registered political parties, low level TPLF members who are willing to solve the problem, civil society and elders to resolve the crisis in Tigray sustainably and bring about lasting peace.

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen called on the diplomats saying "we need your support; we need your help and friendship".

Demeke Mekonnen blamed the TPLF for its refusal to resolve its differences with the federal government peacefully and for being the cause of the war that ensued.

He also said that the TPLF made ethnic based calls making the young people to participate in the war and was the cause for the displacement of many citizens from their homeland.

He accused the TPLF saying ‘while the federal government built telecoms, electricity, banking and other infrastructure, the TPLF was destroying them’.

Demeke recalled that a team is investigating the alleged human rights abuses in Tigray State and called on the international community to refrain from taking sides before the result of the investigation is made official.
On the other hand, Demeke said the federal government is committed to providing humanitarian assistance to those in need. He said the accusation that the government is "using famine as a [weapon of] war" is a lie and that the government has no intention of doing such a thing.

He said the government's declaration of an immediate ceasefire would enable residents of the region to focus on their farming activities during the winter season and prevent more severe problems from manifesting.
Following the request by the Tigray State interim Administration for the federal government to undertake a humanitarian ceasefire, [the fed] had announced a ceasefire.

It is to be recalled that following this, on Monday, June 28, 2021, the Ethiopian Defense Forces withdrew from the Tigray Region and various areas fell into the hands of the rebels.

ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ኣቦ ጽንዓትን፡ “ንመግዛእቲ ኣይጸዓድን” በሃላይን ከም ዝኾነ ኣይኮነንዶ ፈተውቱ ጸላእቱ’ው ዘይክሕድዎ እዩ። እዚ ናይ ጽንዓት መለለይኡ ብቃላት ጥራይ ዝዝንቶ ናይ ርሑቕ ግዜ ዘይኮነ፡ ናይዚ ቀረባ ግዜን ብተግባር ዝተራእየን፡ ካልኦት ምእንቲ መሰሎም ክሕርኑ ኣበራቢሩ ኣብቲ ዝደልይዎ ንክበጽሑን ዘተባበዐ እዩ። ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ኣብ ከምዚ ሕራነ ኣትዩ ክቡር ዋጋ ዝኸፈለ ከምቲ ገለ ስዑራት ዘዘንትዉዎ፡ ናይ ውግእን ጐነጽን ህርፋን ስለ ዝነበሮ ዘይኮነስ፡ ኩሉቲ ዝሓሸ ምርጭታት ምስተዓጽዎ ዝመረጾ ውሳነ እዩ። ጸላእቲ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ንናይ ህዝቢ ሓያልነት ትሕቲ ዕጥቅን ትዕቢትን ሰሪዖም ከንበርክኽዎ ፈቲኖም ኣይተዓወቱን። “ኤርትራ መሬታ እምበር ህዝባ ኣየድልየና’ዩ” ዝብል ፖሊሲ ክተግብሩ ፈቲኖም ኣይኮነሎምን። ኣሰር’ቲ ጭካነኦም ግና ክሳብ ሕጂ እውን መሊኡ ኣይሃሰሰን። እዚ ክሳብ ክንድዚ መኪቱ ኣብቲ ዝደለዮ ዝበጸሐ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ሎሚ ግና ኣብቲ ዝያዳ ክምክተሉ ዝግበኦ ግዜ ንድሕሪት ዝተመልሰ መሲሉ፡ ኣብነት ንወጽዓ ኣብ ክንዲ ዝቃለሶ ዝረዓሞ ህዝቢ፡ እንዳተባህለ ይጥቀስ ኣሎ። እዚ ኩነታት ነቶም ተወዲብና ንቃለስ ዘለና ኤርትራውያን ሓይልታት’ውን  “ብጽሒትና ኣብዚ ኩነታትዚ እንታይ’ዩ?” ክንብል ዘገድደና እዩ።

ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ብግፍዒ ገዛእቲ ዘይምንብርካኹ ብምጭባጥ ናጽነቱ ኣረጋጊጽዎ እዩ። ካብዚ ነቒሉ ኣብ  ናይ ሓርነት ቃልሱ ናብ ከምዚ ሕጂ ወዲቕዎ ዘሎ ደረጃ ክወርድ’ዩ ኢሉ ዝገመተ ኣይነበረን። ብግብሪ ግና ኣብ ከመይ ከምዘሎ ካልእ ዝነግበሮ ዘይኮነ፡ ባዕሉ ዕረ እናጠዓሞ ዝሓልፎ ዘሎ ህይወቱ መስካሪ እዩ። ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ከምቲ ቀደም ንመግዛእቲ “ሓንጐፋይ” ኢሉ ዘይተቐበለ፡ ንወጽዓ ህግደፍ እውን ከምዘይቅበሎ ዝርዝር ምቕራብ ዘድልዮ ኣይኮነን። እቲ ሎሚ ዘዛርብ ዘሎ ግና ምስቲ ኩሉ ዝተደለበ ተመኩሮኡን ጽንዓቱን ነዚ ህልዊ ዘቤታዊ ወጽዓ ክስዕሮ ዘይምኽኣሉ እዩ። ህዝብና ናብቲ ዘይተርፍ ዓወት  ዘይምብጽሑ ምኽንያት ሰፊሕ ዘርዝር ከም ዘለዎ ርዱእ እዩ። ኣብቲ ዝርዝር ጐሊሑ ዝረአ ከኣ “ኣብ ግዜ ቃልሲ ሓብሒበ ኣብ ዓወት ዘብጻሕኩዎን ሕድሪ ዘሰከምኩዎምን ኣካል ኣይክጠልመንን እዩ”  ዝብል እምነቱ ክኸውን ከምዝኽእልን ብሩህ እዩ። ዝኣመንካዮ ክኽሕድ እንከሎ፡ ክሳብ ክንደይ ሳዕቤኑ ሓደገኛ ከም ዝኸውን ከኣ ምስክርነቱ እዚ ንርእዮ ዘለና እዩ። “ዝኣመንካዮ ኣይጥለምካ፡ ዘኾለስካዮ ኣይንከስካ” ዝበሃል ከኣ ከምዚ ምስኣጋጠመ እዩ።

ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ እንታይ ከም ዝብህግ ኣጸቢቑ ይፈልጥ እዩ። ክሳብ ክንደይ ምእንቲ ህልውና ሃገሩን ቀጻልነት ናጽነቱን ዝተሓቶ ዋጋ ከም ዝኸፍልን’ውን ኣጸቢቑ ይርዳእ እዩ። ካብዚ ኣፍልጦኡ ነቒሉ እዩ ከኣ ኣብ ስልጣን ንክነብር ንናይ ህዝብና ጹረትን ሓልዮትን ኮነ ኢሉ ዝምዝምዞ። ህዝቢ ኤርትራ እቲ እምነት ዘንበረሉ ጉጅለ ይጠልሞ ከም ዝነበረ ተረዲኡ፡ “እዚ ኣካይዳኻ ምርጫይ ኣይኮነን” ንክብል ግዜ ከም ዝወስደሉ ርዱእ ነይሩ። እቲ ሎሚ ብግብሪ ዝረአ ዘሎ ግና ካብ ምጽማምን ምጽባይን ሓሊፉ “ምስ ወጽዓ ክነብር ከም ዝመረጸ” ናብ ዝመስል ደረጃ ዝደየበ እዩ። ከምኡ ኢሉ ንሓዋሩ ክነብር ግና ባህርያዊ ኣይኮነን። ህዝብና ኣንጻር ምምሕዳር ህግደፍ ድምጺ ኣልቦ ተቓውሞ ካብ ዘሕድር  ነዊሕ ግዜ ኮይኑ’ዩ። ናብ ግሁድ “እምቢ ብሃልነት” ክድይብ ግና ግዜ ወሲድሉ። እቲ ወጽዓ ከኣ እነሆ ማዕረቲ ስቕታ መመሊሱ ይመርር።

ወጽዓ ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ኣብ ልዕሊ ህዝብና ፍሉይ እዩ። ፍሉይ ዘብሎ ከኣ ኣብ  ኩሉመዳያት ህይወት ዝርአ ምዃኑ እዩ። ሃገሩ ናይ ምምሕዳር መሰሉ ገፊፍዎ። ፍትሕን ስርዓትን ኣስኢንዎ። ክትገልጾ ብዘጸግም ኣድክይዎን ኣደንቊርዎን። ኣብ ሃገሩ ከይነብር ዓቕሉ ኣጽቢቡ ናብ ስደት ደፊእዎ፡ ንመንእሰይ ዓለም “ዘመናዊ ባርነት” ምዃኑ ኣብ ዝተቀበለቶ ገደብ ግዜን ስሩዕ ክፍሊትን ኣብ ዘየብሉ ግዱድ ውትህድርና ቆሪንዎ። ሕሉፍ ሓሊፉ ከኣ ብናይ ሓደ መስመሩ ስሒቱ ሰንከልከል ጀሚሩ ዘሎ ውጹእ ዲክታተር ውሳነ ኣብ ኤርትራዊ ኣጀንዳ ዘይኮነ ውግኣት ጠቢሱ የህልቖ ኣሎ። እዚ ጉጅለ ካብ ሱዳን ጀሚርካ ክሳብ ጅቡቲ ካብ የመን ጀሚርካ ክሳብ ኢትዮጵያ ሎሚ ከኣ ኣብ ትግራይ ንኤርትራዊ መንእሰይ ኣብ ውግኣት ኣእትዩ ኣህሊቕዎ። ኣብ’ዚ ኤርትራዊ ኣጀንዳ ዘይነበሮን ገለ ብጉጅለ ህግደፍ ዝዓበዱ ኤርትራዊ ወገናት ኣመላኺዖም ምኽንያታዊ ከምስልዎ ዝፈተኑን ውግኣት እቲ ጉጅለ ናይ ብዙሓት ኤርትራውያን መንእሰያት ህይወት ቀዚፉን ምስሊ ኤርትራ ኣበላሽዩን። ኤርትራዊ ኪኖቲ ብህግደፍ ዝንገሮ ናይ ሓሶት ምኽንያታት “ሰለምንታይ ደቀይ ኣብ ፈቐድኡ ይጠፍኡ?” ኢሉ ካብ ምሕታት ዓዲ ኣይወዓለን። እንተኾነ ነቲ ጉጅለ ብዝውጥር ደረጃ፥ ናይ ሕቶኡ መልሲ ክረክብ ኣይደፈአን። ነቲ ጉጅለ ከኣ እዚ’ዩ ኣሻዲንዎ።

ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ኣብዚ ቀረባ ግዜ ስለምንታይ ናብ ውግእ ትግራይ ከም ዝኣተወ፡ ብመንጽር ኤርትራዊ ረብሓ መሚኻ ዋላ ሓንቲ ምኽንያት ከም ዘየብሉ ብሩህ እዩ። ብመንጽር እቲ ጉጅለ ዝበሎ’ውን ካብ ህልኽ፡ ቅርሕንቲ፡ ቅንእን ኣብ ህውከት ናይ ምንባር ወልፍን ወጻኢ ኣይኮነን። እቲ ንኢድ ኣእታውነቱ ንምምልኻዕ ምስ ቀያድን ናይ መወዳእታን ብይን ዶብ ኤርትራን ኢትዮጵያን ንምትሕሓዙ ዝግበር ሃቐነ’ውን መስመሩን ኣገባቡን ዝሰሓተ እዩ። ሰማይ ንሃገርኩምሲ “ህዝብታት ኤርትራን ኢትዮጵያን ሓደ ህዝቢ እዩ” ዝጭረሖኡ መራሒ እየ በሃላይስ ተሓላቒ ዶብን ልኡላውንትን ክኸውን ዘይመስል እዩ። ብዓብይኡ ጸረ ልኡላውነት ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ምዃኑኸ ተዘንጊዑ ማለት ድዩ። ምናልባት እቲ ግብራዊ ምኽንያቱ ናይቲ ናብ ውግእ ትግራይ ምውፋሩ፡  ከምቲ ኣዘዝቲ ሰራዊት ኤርትራ በዓል ዕጥሩን ዝነገሩና ዝምታ ንብረትን ምዕናው ትካላትን ትግራይ  ነይሩ ክኸውን ይኽእል።

እቲ ኢድ ኣእታውነት ብልቦናን ሓላፍነትን፡ ንጉጅለ ህግደፍን ንህዝቢ ኤርትራን ፈላሊኻ ብምርኣይን “ዝገበረኒ ክገብርስ ዓዲ ነየጋብር” ንዝብል ብምስትውዓል እንተዘይተራእዩ፡ ሳዕቤኑ ክሳብ ክንደይ ሃሳዪ ከም ዝኸውን ኣይኮነንዶ ንህዝቢ ኤርትራ ንካለኦት እውን ብሩህ እዩ። እቲ ሎሚ ኣዛራቢ ኮይኑ ዘሎ እምበኣር፡ እዚ ጽሉል ጉጅለ ብዓንተብኡ ብሓያል ናይ ህዝቢ ዓቕሚ ተገኒሑ እንተዝኸውን ሎሚዶ ኣብዚ መበጸሐ ዝብል እዩ። ንመጻኢ እውን ነቲ ሰዲህኤ ድሕሪ ውግእ ኣብ ትግራይ ምጅማሩ፡ “…… ህዝቢ ኤርትራ እዞም ኣብ ዘይምልከቶም ውግእ ተኣጒዶም ዘለዉ ደቁ ብዝቐልጠፈ እዋን ናብ ሃገሮም ክምለሱ ብኹሉ ዝከኣሎ መገድታት ክቃለስ ጻውዒትና ነቕርብ።” ኢሉ ዝኣወጆ ብምስትብሃል፡  ህዝቢ ኤርትራ፡ ከምቲ “ጎንደር ኬድክን እንታይ ኣምጻክን” ዝበሃል፡ ነቲ ጉጅለ “ኣበይ ኣለዉ ደቅና” ክብሎ ክተብዕ ንምሕጸኖ።

Friday, 02 July 2021 10:27

Flash update: Situation in Tigray – UN

Written by

JULY 1, 2021  ETHIOPIATIGRAY

Source: UN OCHA

FLASH UPDATE (4 hours ago)

Situation in Tigray (1 July 2021)

The political dynamics have changed dramatically in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region following the unilateral ceasefire declaration by the Ethiopian Government on 28 June 2021. Reportedly, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) have taken control over most parts of Tigray following the withdrawal of the Ethiopian and Eritrean defense forces from the capital, Mekelle, and other parts of the region, while Western Tigray remains under the control of the Amhara Region. The consequences of the unfolding situation on humanitarian operations in Tigray remain fluid. The breakdown of essential services such as the blackout of electricity, telecommunications, and internet throughout Tigray region will only exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation. Reported shortages of cash and fuel in the region can compromise the duty of care of aid workers on the ground. Despite the dynamic and uncertain situation, partners report that the security situation in Tigray has been generally calm over the past few days, with limited humanitarian activities being implemented around Mekelle and Shire.

Key developments

  • On 28 June, the Federal Government agreed to the request from the Interim Regional Administration in Tigray for a “unilateral ceasefire, until the farming season ends.” Subsequently, Ethiopia National Defense Forces (ENDF) withdrew from Mekelle and other main towns in the region, including Shire, Axum, Adwa, and Adigrat. Currently, former Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) are in control of the main cities and roads in Tigray. There were no reports of fighting in Mekelle and other towns.
  • On 29 June, Eritrean Defense Forces (ErDF) retreated from Tigray, reportedly to boundary areas close to Eritrea. Reportedly, ENDF and ErDF vacated their positions around Shire and areas South and West of Shire towards Mai-Tsebri and Korarit (Western Tigray). Unverified reports indicate some sporadic clashes and ambushes involving TDF and ENDF/ErDF near Adi Daero, North of Shire (North Western), between Adwa and Adigrat (Eastern zone), and in Southern Tigray.
  • On 29 June, Amhara authorities stated their intent not to vacate areas currently controlled by Amhara Region Special Forces (ASF) in Southern, Western, and North Western Tigray. Reportedly, ASF have not vacated positions West and South of the Tekezi river. Reportedly, on 1 July, the bridge over the Tekezi river, connecting Gondar – Shire was blown up by ASF.
  • Throughout Tigray, electricity and mobile networks are cut, and communications are only possible via satellite phones and VSAT connections in a few agencies’ compounds in Mekelle, Shire and May Tsebri. Flights from Addis – Mekelle remain suspended since last week. Road access to Tigray remains blocked, including from Addis – Mekelle (through Afar) and Amhara, i.e., Gondar – Shire and Gondar – Humera – Sheraro. Reportedly, outbound movements from Mekelle – Semera (Afar) and Sheraro – Humera were allowed. In addition, partners report severe shortages of cash and fuel, potentially compromising the relief operations and duty of care of aid workers on the ground.
  • For the past two weeks, humanitarian operations in Mekelle, and towards Adigrat (Eastern), Abi Adi (Central), and to Southern parts of Tigray were curtailed by denials of movement and interference by armed elements. In Central zone, following the killing of three aid workers from MSF-Spain near Abi Adi town on 25 June, humanitarian agencies evacuated their personnel and suspended operations, impacting the population’s access to healthcare and life-saving assistance. Partners had relocated staff from Axum as well as from Samre (South-Eastern). Armed elements hindered partners’ access to Samre, while medical and nutrition supplies were taken from relief convoys. On 28 June, partners, including UN Agencies, reported several incidents related to ENDF elements entering their offices and confiscated telecommunications/internet equipment in Mekelle, Dansha, and Abdurafi. VSATs and other communications equipment were also taken from an INGO compound in the South-Eastern zone.
  • Despite the fluid and uncertain situation, partners report that the security situation in Tigray is calm. No significant security incidents have thus far been reported. Aid partners have implemented ‘alternative working arrangements and worked from home/hotels as a precautionary measure, while field missions have been suspended. Partners have reportedly relocated teams out of field locations, for instance, to Mekelle, Shire, or Dansha in Western Tigray. Some activities such as water trucking in IDP sites in Shire or refugee camps in Mae-Tsebri, and mobile health clinic in Samre reportedly continued.
  • Humanitarian partners in Tigray have expressed their commitment to “stay and deliver,” maintaining the protection of affected populations at the centre of their intervention. Partners are currently assessing the implications of recent events with the view of resuming relief operations as soon as possible, particularly in hard-to-reach areas that would have become more accessible. On 30 June, relief partners conducted several road security assessment missions from Shire – Selekleka, Axum – Adwa, Mekelle – Adigrat, and Mekelle – Samre (South-Eastern zone). Further missions are planned today to Adigrat, Abi Adi, and Samre and Maichew (Southern) tomorrow. As per International Humanitarian Law (IHL), all parties to the conflict are obligated to protect civilians and refrain from obstructing the free movement of humanitarian actors and operations in Tigray.
Thursday, 01 July 2021 23:17

Tigrayan forces have routed the Ethiopian army

Written by

JULY 1, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

Their victory may reshape Ethiopia—and the region

Source: The Economist


ONCE THE history of Ethiopia’s latest civil war is written, the battles of June could well be recounted as one of the great rebel victories of recent years. For it will explain how a group of insurgents in the mountains of Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray routed two of Africa’s largest armies, Ethiopia’s and Eritrea’s, to reclaim Mekelle, their capital.

As the sun set on June 28th—seven months to the day after Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, declared victory over the ruling party in Tigray as his troops occupied Mekelle—Tigrayans came onto the streets to celebrate the flight of federal troops. Officials appointed by Abiy’s government to run the region were whisked out of town as if from a crime scene. “There are celebrations in every house in Mekelle,” said Haile Kiros, a teacher in the city, before phone lines were cut.

The recapture of Mekelle marks a turning point in an atrocity-filled war that Abiy had thought would last just a few weeks. It has not only scuppered Abiy’s attempt to bring Tigray to heel by force of arms, but also threatens to break up the fractious ethnic federation that makes up Africa’s second-most populous country.

The fighting in Tigray started in November amid a struggle for power between Abiy and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the region’s ruling party. The TPLF had controlled the central government for almost 30 years until it was ousted by the protests in 2018 that ushered Abiy to power. At first the TPLF seized control of much of the army’s heavy weaponry by attacking federal bases in the region. But the pendulum soon swung in Abiy’s favour. Federal forces, backed by air power and soldiers from neighbouring Eritrea, swiftly captured the big towns and cities. Yet the fighting soon degenerated into a grinding guerrilla war as fighters of the self-styled Tigrayan Defence Force (TDF) took to the hills, much as their grandfathers had in a successful insurgency in the 1980s against the Derg—a communist dictatorship—and as their fathers had in a conventional war against Eritrea in 1998-2000. Some Tigrayans were provoked into taking up arms by murders and rapes, many committed by Eritrean forces whom UN officials also accuse of attempting to starve Tigray into submission.

Then in mid-June the TDF’s fighters came back down from the hills under the command of Tsadkan Gebretensae, a veteran Ethiopian army chief who had been at the helm during the war with Eritrea, to launch “Operation Alula”, named after a 19th-century general. At first few observers believed the TDF when it claimed to have defeated several Ethiopian and Eritrean divisions and taken thousands of prisoners in a succession of battles on the roads to Mekelle. The Ethiopian government insisted it was in full control of the region and was mopping up sporadic resistance. But the truth was exposed when, as quickly as they had arrived, Ethiopian troops left, pausing only to dismantle telecommunications equipment and raid a UN office.

With Ethiopian and Eritrean troops scrambling towards the exit, the federal government announced a unilateral ceasefire on June 28th, ostensibly on humanitarian grounds. More probably it was an effort to mask the defeat of its forces and allow them time to retreat (just days earlier Ethiopia’s deputy prime minister had told Western ambassadors for the first time that his government wanted a ceasefire and peace talks). But the TDF is in no mood to halt its offensive. Its spokesman called the government’s ceasefire a “sick joke” and said the TDF would continue pursuing “enemy” forces. Some Tigrayan leaders have threatened to fight on northwards, towards Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, and westwards, towards the border with Sudan, intending to expel militia forces from the neighbouring region of Amhara. By June 30th the TDF appeared to be in control of most of the region, including the towns of Axum, Shire and Adwa (see map).

The most urgent concern of all parties ought to be to ensure aid agencies are able to get access to Tigray, where up to a million people face starvation because they have been unable to plant crops and because Eritrean and Ethiopian forces have not allowed in sufficient supplies of food. Yet Will Davison of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank based in Brussels, sees indications that officials in Abiy’s government plan to continue to blockade Tigray, allowing in some aid but little else. If so the TDF may seek to break the blockade by fighting for access to the Sudanese border or trying to topple the government in Eritrea.

Abiy, happily, has much to gain by lifting the blockade and starting talks, beyond ensuring the wellbeing of Tigrayan civilians. For a start it would help to repair his relationship with Western governments, whose support he needs to rebuild and get Ethiopia’s battered economy back onto its previous path of rapid growth. By its own admission Ethiopia’s government has spent about $2.3bn on the war. Because of its concerns about war crimes, America has asked the IMF and World Bank to withhold economic assistance. America has also pressed the United Arab Emirates, which has provided Abiy’s government with financial support (and possibly arms), not to bail it out.

Diplomats are also concerned about the risks of the conflict spreading beyond Tigray’s borders. Eritrea’s dictator, Issaias Afwerki, may well already be regretting his decision to join the attack on Tigray, largely to settle scores with the TPLF, which had humiliated him in the border war. A second trouncing at its hands is unlikely to strengthen his hold on power. Another concern is a deterioration in relations between Sudan and Ethiopia. Since November the Sudanese army has been skirmishing with Ethiopian forces, Amhara militiamen and at least some Eritrean troops over a disputed area of farmland on the border and over a huge new dam under construction on the Blue Nile. In a speech on June 30th Abiy suggested his forces had withdrawn from Tigray in part to redirect their attention toward the Sudanese front. “Another force threatens us and we need to prepare for that,” he said.

Still, the deepest concern of Western diplomats and other countries in the region is the stability of Ethiopia’s fragile ethnic federation. Although TPLF leaders have yet to call for secession, many young Tigrayans now champion it unambiguously. “The only way is for independence,” says Tekleberhan Weldeselassie, an Ethiopian air-force pilot who fled abroad at the start of the war. “We Tigrayans will never stay together with Ethiopia.” Abiy now has the almighty task of convincing them to do just that.

JULY 1, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

Washington calls Ethiopia’s temporary ceasefire in region a ‘promising development’

Millions have been displaced in Tigray due to the fighting and about 350,000 are facing famine. AFP

The US government on Tuesday expressed cautious optimism after the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Tigray, but said that with Eritrean troops still in the region, the temporary ceasefire remains fragile.

“This is a promising development and we welcome it,” Robert Godec, acting assistant secretary of state for African affairs told the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the Biden administration’s first comment on the withdrawal.

But he added that “it is essential now that all parties commit to the ceasefire, allow humanitarian access, protect civilians, have independent investigations into atrocities so that there is justice for the victims.”

Last November, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, backed by Eritrean troops and allied militias, launched a military offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Since then, more than two million civilians have been internally displaced and 5.2 million people in the region are in urgent need of food, the UN said.

Mr Abiy, who has been under international pressure to end the fighting, ordered the withdrawal on Monday.

But US officials say Eritrean forces remain in the war-torn region.

“We have seen some indications of movement but we don’t know yet if they are withdrawing,” Mr Godec told members of Congress. “They have committed horrifying atrocities, that much is clear.

“The Eritrean forces need to leave immediately — that is absolutely necessary if there is going to be peace or the restoration of civil order and stability in Tigray and more generally in Ethiopia.”

A UN report released this month detailed grave human rights abuses committed by Eritrean troops in Tigray.

The international body has received information that Eritrean soldiers have carried out “deliberate attacks against civilians and summary executions, indiscriminate attacks, sexual and gender-based violence, arbitrary detention, destruction and looting of civilian property and displacement, and the abduction of Eritrean refugees and asylum seekers.”

Mr Godec described the Eritrean forces’ role as “malign” and made clear that their failure to withdraw could bring more US sanctions on Asmara.

“If the [Ethiopian] government’s announcement does not result in improvements and the situation continues to worsen, Ethiopia and Eritrea should anticipate further action,” he said.

Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Africa Centre, saw Eritrea as an easy target for US sanctions if it does not pull out its troops.

“Eritrea has been accused of some of the worst human rights violations against civilians in this conflict, and given their pariah status, sanctioning them for their actions would not come at a high cost to Washington,” Mr Hudson told The National.

This is in contrast to Ethiopia, which “Washington has held out hope … could return to being a reliable and stable partner in the region.”

Mr Abiy’s forces have recently lost ground to the TPLF, leading the expert to argue that Ethiopia’s withdrawal was more of a “tactical retreat” and a realisation that the tide is turning against it in the conflict.

“These government announcements mask a hard reality that the Tigrayans were turning the tide in the conflict … faced with a ‘leave it or lose it’ choice, Abiy Ahmed left and is now hoping to gain the upper hand by framing his actions as a humanitarian gesture,” Mr Hudson said.

The UN estimates about 350,000 people in Tigray are facing famine, including roughly 30,000 children that are now considered malnourished.

Thursday, 01 July 2021 22:20

Eritrea.LIBERTY magazine issue NO.69

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Thursday, 01 July 2021 21:39

Dimtsi Harnnet Kassel 01.07.2021

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