NOVEMBER 5, 2021 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS, TIGRAY

The only path through tragedy is via negotiations between the government and rebels. That is the least likely scenario.

By David Pilling

Rarely can the prospects of any nation have imploded so spectacularly as those of Ethiopia.

Not long ago, the country of 110m people, Africa’s second most populous, was considered a rare economic success, its two decades of double-digit growth and impressive development gains erasing a former reputation for bad government and famine.

The ascension to power three years ago of Abiy Ahmed, a would-be moderniser, was seen as a chance to go one better. He could liberalise the economy and spread democratic icing on a resolutely authoritarian cake. Yet since last November, tragedy has unfolded with an Afghan-like velocity.

On the one-year anniversary of war between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Tigrayan forces are intimating they could march on Addis Ababa, the capital, and eject Abiy from power. The TPLF, which ran the country for 27 years until 2018, is no Taliban, however brutally it governed and whatever its detractors say. But like the Taliban, banished from government and criminalised, it could now bludgeon its way back to power.

The fighting has unleashed obscene violence. This week, a joint investigation by the UN and an Ethiopian state-appointed human rights commission found that all sides — the government’s forces, its Eritrean allies, the TPLF and sundry militias — had “committed violations of international human rights, humanitarian and refugee law, some of which may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity”. Ethnically charged hate speech is at levels reminiscent of pre-genocide Rwanda.

The war between Addis and the TPLF has spawned another between Tigray and Amhara, neighbouring regions with ancient rivalries and modern land-and-power-related disputes.

Abiy, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, has at times sounded unhinged. “The pit which is dug will be very deep, it will be where the enemy is buried, not where Ethiopia disintegrates,” he said in a speech this week, according to a Reuters translation. “We will bury this enemy with our blood and bones.”

A slightly milder version on his Facebook account was removed for violating rules on incitement to violence.

It is hard to see a path out of tragedy. “There are two options,” Tewodros Hailemariam, a senior member of the National Movement of Amhara, told the BBC. “Either the TPLF is defeated and the Ethiopian central government is saved or . . . the TPLF rules and controls Addis Ababa and there will be civil war in the entire nation.”

How has Ethiopia reached this blood-soaked impasse?

Most of the regions into which Ethiopia is divided — including Tigray, Amhara and Oromia — regard themselves as nations with their own languages, cultures and competing versions of history.

Transfer of control involves profound shifts in the balance of power between constituent nations of the “Ethiopian empire” and is rarely less than traumatic. Haile Selassie, who oversaw a feudal system, was deposed and later executed after a student-inspired, Marxist-led uprising in 1974.

The regime that followed, the Derg, dismantled feudal land structures but imposed a “red terror” that culminated in man-made famine. After decades of perceived Amhara domination, it was a rebel army from Tigray that led the 1991 overthrow of the Derg.

The TPLF, though it represented a region with only 6 per cent of Ethiopia’s population, held power until 2018.

Abiy is from Oromia, the most populous region with more than one-third of Ethiopia’s population, but which has traditionally stayed on the margins of government.

His election followed years of protests against Tigray’s outsized influence on politics. He promoted national unity. To some, that promised modern, ethnic-neutral democracy; to others, it spelt a return to the suppression of ethnic rights.

Abiy not only failed to placate the fears of a TPLF jettisoned from power, which he blamed for terrorist acts aimed at destabilising his government. He even alienated his own Oromo base, which feared he would roll back regional autonomy in pursuit of his national vision.

That perception has spelt disaster. The Oromo Liberation Army has joined forces with the TPLF and they could conceivably march on Addis together.

Now he finds himself cornered. Anything other than total victory spells his political end. The TPLF is in a similar position. Short of recapturing national power, an organisation now branded by Abiy as a “criminal clique” faces life in the wilderness. T

he only plausible way out is to talk. Tragically, that appears to be the least likely outcome.

NOVEMBER 5, 2021 MARTIN PLAUT ETHIOPIA

A United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces has been launched at a press conference in Washington.

The nine member group signed the founding document at the National Press Club.

Speaking after the signing they made clear that the main objective was to oust the Abiy government – by negotiations or by force.

A joint military command will be established to bring this about and co-operation will be extended to other areas.

Mr Okok from the Gambella Peoples Liberation army said that his people had been treated like “slaves” by Ethiopian regimes down the years. “There has been systematic racism – like apartheid – in our country,” he said.

Now was the time for a decentralised government, which would recognised the rights of all the peoples, and allow them to enjoy their resources without exploitation by the centre.

He said the new Front would defend article 39 of the Ethiopian constitution which guaranteed the right to self-determination, up to and including secession.

Mr Okok thanked the Tigrayans for starting the armed resistance and said that by doing so they were fighting for all minorities – including the Gambella, South Omo and Benishangul peoples.

NOVEMBER 5, 2021 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS, TIGRAY

A bill has been drawn up which goes beyond previous congressional resolutions – it would (if passed) have the force of law.

Among many other provisions, it would mandate some of what the Biden administration has already ordered or threatened to do. It will end security assistance to Ethiopia.

The Bill specifically calls for the Secretary of the Treasury to use American votes in international financial organisations: “(1) to use the voice and vote of the United States in those institutions to oppose any loan or extension of financial or technical assistance to the Governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea.”

Below is what the proposers have said about it.

You can find the full bill here

MENENDEZ, RISCH, COONS INTRODUCE NEW SANCTIONS BILL TARGETING PARTIES INVOLVED IN CONFLICT IN TIGRAY

WASHINGTON – Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and Ranking Member Jim Risch (R-Idaho) were joined today by State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Senator Chris Coons (D-Del.) in marking one year since the beginning of the conflict in Ethiopia with the introduction of their Ethiopia Peace and Democracy Promotion Act of 2021, bipartisan legislation to bolster the United States’ diplomatic, development, and legal response to support democracy, human rights, peace, and stability in Ethiopia. In addition to suspending American security assistance to the Government of Ethiopia and authorizing American support for conflict resolution and civil society peacebuilding efforts, the bipartisan legislation mandates the imposition of targeted sanctions against individual actors who are found to undermine attempts to resolve, who profit from, or who provide material support to any entity that is party to the civil war.

“I am proud to be joined by my colleagues in introducing the Ethiopia Peace and Democracy Promotion Act of 2021 to enhance our nation’s efforts to pursue meaningful accountability for the bloodshed and tragedy in Tigray,” Chairman Menendez said. “The United States and broader international community cannot turn away from the people of Ethiopia as staggering reports of extrajudicial killings, murdered aid workers, and use of mass rape and sexual violence as weapons of war continue to pour out of the region. I am committed to continue working with my colleagues to secure this legislation’s passage and demonstrate that the United States will match our words of support with unflinching, definitive and robust action. A year in, we must confront this raging conflict head-on and hold perpetrators of heinous abuses responsible.”

“This legislation sends a strong bipartisan message that Congress will not stand by as the war in northern Ethiopia continues without action from all sides to stop the fighting and engage in dialogue,” said Ranking Member Risch. “This is a regional crisis that requires a coordinated and intensive international response, to include holding accountable those responsible for the ongoing fighting, humanitarian crisis, and mass disinformation campaign being waged inside and outside Ethiopia. We must look at this legislation and other options to directly address disinformation – funding and stoking conflict, no matter where you are, should carry consequences.”

“Last November, I called Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to urge him to reconsider his military campaign in Tigray and to choose dialogue and reconciliation. In March, I traveled to Ethiopia on behalf of President Biden to deliver the same message. One year into this brutal and tragic conflict, Ethiopia is facing a full blown humanitarian catastrophe and spreading civil war,” said Senator Coons. “I am joining my colleagues to introduce this bipartisan legislation to punish actors that continue to fuel violence, violate human rights, and undermine a democratic, peaceful, and unified Ethiopia.”

The legislation builds upon the Biden administration’s recent Executive Order and newly announced plans to end Ethiopia’s eligibility for trade preferences under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in January of 2022 absent the Ethiopian government’s urgent action to stop parties’ direct or complicit involvement in the perpetration of human rights violations and other unconscionable abuses.

NOVEMBER 5, 2021 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS, TIGRAY

Abiy’s hunger plan is an international crime to be exposed, sanctioned, and punished, not appeased. The aid should flow now, no matter what. That is the law, and the UN should uphold it.

Implementing the right to life for the starving means that the UN must deal with the realities on the ground. That means speaking directly with the Tigrayans, the Oromo Liberation Army, and whoever controls territory and people, to allow the aid to flow. If that means overruling the wishes of Abiy, so be it.

Source: Al Jazeera

Tigray is starving, it is time for the UN to act

The aid should flow to Tigray now, no matter what. That is the law, and the United Nations should uphold it.

Alex de Waal

Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School, Tufts University

4 Nov 2021

A year after the outbreak of the war in Tigray, Ethiopia, the United Nations Security Council is yet to act. This is despite the UN’s own assessment that there are famine conditions in Tigray and that the Ethiopian government is systematically obstructing the delivery of essential aid to the region.

Last month, PBS Newshour asked former UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock, “Is the Ethiopian government trying to starve Tigray?” Able to speak candidly after his retirement, he answered, “Yes. There’s not just an attempt to starve six million people but an attempt to cover up what’s going on.”

Today, the realities are changing fast. With the Ethiopian army defeated, and the victorious Tigrayan forces and their Oromo allies closing in on the capital, Addis Ababa, the UN has one last chance to do the right thing. The absolute minimum is to act to stop the deepening starvation in Tigray and the widening humanitarian crisis across other parts of Ethiopia. With the economic crisis spiralling, hunger is even knocking on the door of Addis Ababa.

Starvation has been the Ethiopian government’s weapon of choice. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s famine plan for Tigray was simple and relentless. For eight months, his soldiers – and their Eritrean allies – pillaged and ransacked Tigray. They stole and burned food, stopped farmers from ploughing the land, looted and vandalised clinics and hospitals, ripped up water pipes and damaged water pumps, terrorised women and girls with rape and threats of rape, and helped themselves to much of the relief food delivered from outside.

Abiy imposed starvation in a systematic and rigorous way. It is not clear whether he wanted to weaken the Tigrayans’ capacity or resolve, to punish them, or to destroy them altogether. Whatever the motive, it redoubled the Tigrayans’ fierce determination to prevail, because their very survival was at stake.

In June, when the Tigrayan resistance drove out the occupying soldiers, Abiy imposed a comprehensive and unlawful blockade: food and medicine cannot get in, information about the starvation cannot get out. The banks are closed; salaries are not paid and humanitarian agencies do not have money to operate. The UN estimates that 100 truckloads of food are needed every day to feed five million people in need, including at least 400,000 suffering famine. About 13 percent of that amount has actually been allowed through.

Tigrayan children are wasting away, one-fifth of them severely undernourished. Four out of five pregnant or nursing mothers are acutely malnourished. Nurses are fainting of hunger on the job.

A comprehensive news blackout has been imposed to stop images and information from seeping out. But the truth is inescapable. And Abiy seems to have forgotten a lesson from history: previous Ethiopian leaders lost their legitimacy when their people starved.

Emperor Haile Selassie’s regime collapsed in the aftermath of a famine in 1973, which he tried to conceal. Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam denied the existence of famine in 1984, and did his best to block relief aid to rebel-held areas in the name of protecting national sovereignty. The result was that the international donors supported a clandestine cross-border aid effort, and in due course adopted a series of norms culminating in the “responsibility to protect”.

War creates hunger – and hunger also drives war. The UN Security Council expressed this fear when it adopted resolution 2417 in May 2018: “Recognising the need to break the vicious cycle between armed conflict and food insecurity.”

Humanitarian failure escalated Ethiopia’s war. With the international humanitarians deferring to the Ethiopian government, the Tigrayan resistance took matters into their own hands.

After seizing control of their home region, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) took the offensive, sending units beyond the boundaries of their region, saying they are determined to break the starvation siege by any means necessary. As their troops have penetrated deep into the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar, they have requisitioned food and medical supplies. In the coming days, they are set to control the road from Djibouti, which is the main access route for humanitarian supplies as well as the main commercial route to Addis Ababa.

But Abiy refuses to accept that starvation is a weapon that fatally injures its user. In response to a deeply flawed report by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the UN Human Rights Commissioner, Abiy falsely claimed that he was exonerated of weaponising hunger. In fact, the joint investigation only mentioned a handful of starvation crimes and has nothing to say about the unlawful siege on Tigray imposed since June. Abiy is sending his air force to bomb the Tigrayan city of Mekelle and he is buying drones. And he has still not agreed to unfettered humanitarian access to Tigray.

Abiy’s hunger plan is an international crime to be exposed, sanctioned, and punished, not appeased. The aid should flow now, no matter what. That is the law, and the UN should uphold it.

Implementing the right to life for the starving means that the UN must deal with the realities on the ground. That means speaking directly with the Tigrayans, the Oromo Liberation Army, and whoever controls territory and people, to allow the aid to flow. If that means overruling the wishes of Abiy, so be it.