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A new offensive in Tigray: “all sides appear prepared”

2022-04-12 19:20:21 Written by  Prof Kjetil Tronvoll Published in English Articles Read 254 times
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Source: Kjetil Tronvoll Tweets

Will a new major military offensive be launched in Ethiopiasoon? All sides: the federal government, Amhara and Afar regional governments; Eritrea and Tigray appear prepared for it.

Over the past couple of weeks, information about new large-scale troops deployment on Tigray ’s borders in the north by Eritrea and in south by Ethiopia have emerged.

Eritrean reinforcements are allegedly deployed on the Zalambessa, Rama, Badme and Humera fronts along Tigray border, while reportedly new ENDF recruits and regional special forces are dispatched to Amhara and Afar fronts.

The so-called declaration of truce by Ethiopia has not met its stated objective, as the federal and Afar governments continue to block much needed humanitarian aid to the famine struck population of Tigray. Only 22 trucks reached Mekelle since the truce was announcement.

Ethiopian government declaration of a truce is either a) a ploy to once again buy time to prepare for new offensive; or b) shows how incapacitated and powerless PM Abiy Ahmed is to negotiate a peace with Tigray, since he relies on political fractions advocating war to stay in power.

Tigray regional government cannot sit idle for much longer, watching their famine struck population starve to death in their thousands. They must either surrender or break the Ethiopia siege before their army, the TDF, is rendered incapable of fighting by starvation.

As all international attention is on Russia’s war on Ukraine, Western diplomatic interest and capacity to address Ethiopia war is waning. The new international relations are also relevant here, as Ethiopia is supporting Russia, further alienating Western powers from Ethiopia.

Finally, we should keep in mind that the key traditional “season of war” in Ethiopia follows Easter holiday and before rains start in June. If all the above are adequate indications, a new major military offensive on Tigray by Ethiopia and Eritrea will soon be launched…

Last modified on Tuesday, 12 April 2022 21:22